The vast majority of people are best served, long-term, by cash back cards. Use the cash back to buy economy tickets or whatever else you want.
Arrival+ only gives 0.2% more, once per year, and it has to be redeemed for travel to even get it. For this you get an annual fee and an inquiry? Grab the bonus if you want but it is not a keeper.
CSP only gives the cents/dollar returns you see in the blogosphere if you use it for luxury travel booked well in advance through Chase's site. Even then the ROI is inflated because, lets be real, most people redeeming UR for first class travel would never pay the cash price, so saying you got an $X ticket for $Y in spending is dishonest. A more fair comparison is the spend required for that first class ticket vs the spend required for an economy class ticket purchased with cash back, then compare the cash back you could've earned using a cashback card and ask if a few hours of amenities were worth it. For me, it's pretty much no and I will most likely ditch my CSP before its fee comes due.
My answer to your question is probably both, hit min spends, then downgrade or cancel before the fee is due. You may even just avoid the CSP for psychological reasons: luxury is a drug, don't risk an addiction that even rich people can't afford.
