@longtimelurker wrote:
@Anonymous wrote:
Lurker -
It's rational to assume that a card like this will have an increased sign up bonus in the near future. Currently it sits at 50k which is the same as CSP, it was previously 100k. Bonuses that start high then go lower usually have a period where they go back to the higher bonus.
Take Southwest for example they're constantly fluctuating between 40 and 50k signup that's a Chase Card.
Amex does it.
Navy does it.
Just about every card with a bonus has a higher promo period usually lasting 30-90 days. CSP actually had recently a targeted 70k UR offer so....
Also, the plan you're suggesting sounds kind of crazy. Get CSP use it for sign up bonus then PC to CSR pay the $450 AF in a month then a few months later you see they have the 100k UR again so you PC the CSR down to a Freedom (or other non-AF card, but I can't because I owne Freedom and Freedom Unlimited so I'd have to pay the $95 to PC to the CSP). Then you apply for the CSR and are approved. You've now paid $995 in Annual Fees, in theory.
I would never handle my accounts that way, there may be people who do but I personally don't churn bonuses or do similar things...As you cannot rely on targetted bonuses, I was talking about generally available ones, and from what I recall, the CSP has fluctuated at best very little (whereas the Freedom for example has been much more variable, but I am making the assumption that CSR is going to be more like CSP).
The scenario was for people already with a CSP. (If they could apply for the CSP they would apply for the CSR). So this far from crazy pattern is just to get the extra advantages of the CSR, NOT for the bonus), and then, when eligible again, switch down and apply again, this time for the bonus whatever it is, (and IMO probably not 100K UR). Since people do this for the features of the CSR, the annual fee doesn't matter so much and anyway, Chase gives pro-rated rebates of the AF in these situations. Also, you can have multiple Freedoms if you PC a card to it (You could get multiple FUs, but there is no obvious point in doing that)
The only thing I would suggest about that is that since the CSR is the high end chase card I believe we will see higher signups for it in the future. There is really no reason for Chase to do higher signups for the CSP, since they want to encourage people to go for the higher AF card over the CSP. I don't necessarily think we will see 100k again anytime soon but I would not be suprised by an 80k offer etc. Instead of comparing the bonus cycle to the CSP I would look more towards what Amex does with the plat card. Usuaully the signup isn't that great but either via a targetted offer or once in a blue moon they come out with a large signup offer. Soo many people signed up for the CSR though that it will be a minute before we see any outstanding signup offers come back around, although they might try to target high spenders who are using other lenders.
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@Anonymous wrote:
Revelate -
I wouldn't say it's for bonus chasers, but bonuses are a large factor when signing up. To me a "bonus chaser" is someone who signs up for a card for the sole purpose of getting the bonus then PC'ing it. When I look for cards yes I do look at the sign up bonus as playing a factor in if I app for it, but I also look at long term factors as well. I'm just saying that IF I were looking between CSP and CSR right now I personally would pick CSP as I don't travel more than 3-4 times a year through airlines. I, being a rational person would wait until mid summer when they will likely again increase the sign up bonus at least to 80k or if we're lucky to 100k.
In order to make up those lost 50k UR you'd have to spend $50,000 on regular spend or at the very lowest $17,000 purely on Dining/Travel.
I'm just saying that at this particular moment in time it's not good to apply for CSR over the CSP.
In the future it may be better, and it appears that your circumstances are different than a lot of people (PC'ing the CSP because of denial).
We're just arguing semantics: if you wouldn't apply for a card because you don't have a use for it (travel / dining, specifically likely international travel in the CSR's case with that godlike lounge benefit which doesn't do that much in the US given the location distribution) other than for a bonus, that's my definition of bonus chasing.
Others may not agree with my use of that term, but I don't mean that as a negative in any sort, but it's a simple label. FWIW I might wind up in a place in life where I'll do that in the future, just that isn't right now.
You're right though, my use case is definitely different than most people's in that I needed a premier travel card and the bonus would've been a very nice cherry on top but it wasn't to be. Learned my lesson there.
Lurker - You're arguing for a small percentage of people overall who are A) Already in possession of CSP B) Are over 5/24 C) Are not willing to wait until they are under 5/24 to apply for CSR. What percentage of the overall US population over age 18 do you think meet all 3 conditions? 
My argument is for the majority of people, as other posters have said there is a high probability of an increased sign up bonus, and it is possible they will not go as high as 100k again, but at the same time they may go to 80k or waive the first year's AF. I believe and it's a strong possibility that this will happen this year open to everyone, not just targeted.
Unless they decrease the CSP sign up bonus they remain the same, actually better for CSP because first AF is waived.
To the average person, not someone who scours threads or does major research, they look the same, except one you owe $450 up front to get it. So that is a turn off for many average people.
My argument is for the majority of people, as other posters have said there is a high probability of an increased sign up bonus, and it is possible they will not go as high as 100k again, but at the same time they may go to 80k or waive the first year's AF. I believe and it's a strong possibility that this will happen this year open to everyone, not just targeted.
Unless they decrease the CSP sign up bonus they remain the same, actually better for CSP because first AF is waived.
To the average person, not someone who scours threads or does major research, they look the same, except one you owe $450 up front to get it. So that is a turn off for many average people.
@Anonymous wrote:
Lurker - You're arguing for a small percentage of people overall who are A) Already in possession of CSP B) Are over 5/24 C) Are not willing to wait until they are under 5/24 to apply for CSR. What percentage of the overall US population over age 18 do you think meet all 3 conditions?
My argument is for the majority of people, as other posters have said there is a high probability of an increased sign up bonus, and it is possible they will not go as high as 100k again, but at the same time they may go to 80k or waive the first year's AF. I believe and it's a strong possibility that this will happen this year open to everyone, not just targeted.
Unless they decrease the CSP sign up bonus they remain the same, actually better for CSP because first AF is waived.
To the average person, not someone who scours threads or does major research, they look the same, except one you owe $450 up front to get it. So that is a turn off for many average people.
No, if you look back I was arguing about your response to Rev's case and your use of the "lost" 50K points. The idea behind my post was simply that they are not permanently lost in cases like his. I am not attempting to speak to the general case, and I have (as you pointed out!) deviated from the threads title.