Think long term on this one. In your situation (if knew what know now when I was ending college), I'd go ahead and apply now. Worst case you get denied and you apply again later this year. The possible inquiry penalty isn't that big of a deal, a third personal tradeline is typically a good thing, and the Amex BCE/P is an excellent card without a doubt for typical expenses. If you want the tradeline, it's better to get it as soon as possible and get it out of the way... and it doesn't sound like in your situation you're going to be looking at a mortgage within the next year anyway.
There may be a better card for some expenses (rotating categories on the Chase Freedom, or if you eat out a lot, perhaps CSP, non-trivial approvals for any of the cards mentioned here).
I think you answered your own question as to which Amex revolver: unless your extravagent expense months are *every* month, you lose money on the BCP, so take the no AF BCE and when your expenses increase sometime in the future you can always switch (as long as it's more than a year in between, which it probably will be).
Congrats on the most excellent approval on your Venture card.
