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Speculation about CC approval odds

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Ellifino
New Contributor

Speculation about CC approval odds

I was thinking about if I were a credit card company, what would influence my decision to extend credit. And I wondered if a big part of it wasn't related to the business needs of the moment: like, right now, right before Black Friday and Christmas shopping, they would want to extend credit as much as possible so as to maximize profitability during this highly profitable season.  Let's say a credit card company usually extended credit to the top 25% of applicants. During times when they want to expand their customer base, they might relax the underwriting standards to the top 35% of applicants and give a slightly more generous CL to new accounts.

 

Your thoughts? If this were a thing, I could use it to guide decisions regarding when to app for "stretch" cards.

 

If someone were super motivated, they could maybe use big data techniques to mine the approvals board for info on when peak approval times were, like a "myfico" moneyball. Smiley Happy

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Message 1 of 5
4 REPLIES 4
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Speculation about CC approval odds


@Ellifino wrote:

I was thinking about if I were a credit card company, what would influence my decision to extend credit. And I wondered if a big part of it wasn't related to the business needs of the moment: like, right now, right before Black Friday and Christmas shopping, they would want to extend credit as much as possible so as to maximize profitability during this highly profitable season.  Let's say a credit card company usually extended credit to the top 25% of applicants. During times when they want to expand their customer base, they might relax the underwriting standards to the top 35% of applicants and give a slightly more generous CL to new accounts.

 

Your thoughts? If this were a thing, I could use it to guide decisions regarding when to app for "stretch" cards.

 

If someone were super motivated, they could maybe use big data techniques to mine the approvals board for info on when peak approval times were, like a "myfico" moneyball. Smiley Happy


It's definitely possible, but credit card companies extend credit and assign rates based on how much money they expect to make or lose on a certain applicant. They would only relax their terms if the risk of less qualified applicants was less than the profit they could generate. Also keep in mind that credit extended during periods of increased spending is still extended once the profit bonus of increased spending is over. Specific to this example, extending credit to less qualified applicants may be especially bad, because less stable people are more likely to overextend themselves buying gifts which may be difficult to repay. Overall, I don't think it's likely card companies would be more likely to approve as they are thinking very long term.

Message 2 of 5
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Speculation about CC approval odds


@Ellifino wrote:

I was thinking about if I were a credit card company, what would influence my decision to extend credit. And I wondered if a big part of it wasn't related to the business needs of the moment: like, right now, right before Black Friday and Christmas shopping, they would want to extend credit as much as possible so as to maximize profitability during this highly profitable season.  Let's say a credit card company usually extended credit to the top 25% of applicants. During times when they want to expand their customer base, they might relax the underwriting standards to the top 35% of applicants and give a slightly more generous CL to new accounts.

 

Your thoughts? If this were a thing, I could use it to guide decisions regarding when to app for "stretch" cards.

 

If someone were super motivated, they could maybe use big data techniques to mine the approvals board for info on when peak approval times were, like a "myfico" moneyball. Smiley Happy


 

I doubt it. Maybe retailer cards and co-branded cards, but I doubt even these would give out easier credit for the holiday shopping season. Lending money is all about expected returns and not about giving people credit to buy more for the holidays. Lending a higher line of credit to a risky borrower is dangerous because you might never get paid back. Think back to the foreclosure crisis some years ago. Banks and other lenders got burnt for taking risks and lending more money than they should to risky borrowers under the premise that real estate prices would go up and they would get paid anyway even if the borrower could not afford to make long-term payments. Increasing credit lines for a holiday season would be even dumber because unlike the home loan scenario where there is collateral (a house) to go after, here there is no collateral since credit cards are unsecured. 

 

It is possible there are mild seasonal variations in approvals or credit lines based on financial projections by the issuer. However, since credit card lines are not seasonal, the lender opens themselves up to offering that line year round once they give it for the holiday season. Some lenders do occasionally reduce credit lines, but most of them only do it due to signs of financial distress. I mean if my lenders randomly reduced my credit lines for no reason, I'd likely sock drawer their cards and many others would do the same unless the card was exceptional for some reason. 

 

Message 3 of 5
longtimelurker
Epic Contributor

Re: Speculation about CC approval odds

I think certain considerations come into play, such as market share needs to meet Wall Street expectations at times.   My company,  for a particular service,  usually  a deposit of $X for customers with scores below a certain level.   Not surprisingly, the need to give a deposit puts some customers off.   So at one time, the company reduced the required score quite a lot, so that customers who previously required a deposit now didn't need one, and this was done to increase market share.  At the time, I thought "That's great, we will now have a lot more customres, but some fraction of the new ones won't be able to pay".   But I guess the reporting to Wall Street near-term need outweighed any increased losses.

Message 4 of 5
takeshi74
Senior Contributor

Re: Speculation about CC approval odds


@Ellifino wrote:

Your thoughts? If this were a thing, I could use it to guide decisions regarding when to app for "stretch" cards.


Sounds like wishful thinking to me but there are sites that track approvals and if creditors did relax criteria it seems like the data collected on those sites should reflect that.

Message 5 of 5
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