Not certain we can be fully accurate on this one, fact is some people who hardly use the card get the 3X and some who heavily use it (and PIFing) don't. There's a lot of details which aren't generally shared, may even somewhat depend where you typically shop as Open123 astutely suggested previously... Amex certainly isn't going to tell us.
Personally I'm still running as much of my financial life as I can through a card I want a CLI on, or trying to establish a relationship with the lender; this applies doubly to Amex since they get paid on both sides of the transaction; however, the reduction in score from new accounts might be problematic, or it may not be at all. Amex absolutely uses their own internal metric, and we just don't know how that factors in all cases.
In any event I'd hit the monkey button regardless if it were me. Worst case a denial and a note in the internal record, which is likely irrevelant anyway in the mid/long-term future as eventually almost everyone with good behavior should qualify for a CLI.
Starting Score: EQ 561, TU 567, EX 599* (12/30/11, EX lender pull 12/29/11)Current Score: EQ 648, Wally TU 673, EX 687 (06/15/13)
Goal Score: 680 in all three (01/01/14)
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