Experian seems to be the one AmEx traditionally pulls, although I have seen reports lately of them pulling all three (would need to get some clarification on that!) - so if your EX is 15 or so points higher than your EQ, I'd say that the score itself would give you a very good chance of getting the Blue.
As for the derogs and the lates... I really have NO idea, so my answer isn't all that helpful, sorry.
I just hope it will bump it up a bit so that you'll get an answer from someone who can tell you how AmEx viewed those things in their case.
Good luck!