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In my opinion, the promotional offers tend to be given out on lesser-used accounts to encourage you to spend more. So yeah, your theory kind of makes sense. They're bugging you to use the card, so perhaps a promo is coming to entice you soon. Of course no one can say for sure, but I see the connection.
@Anonymous wrote:
so as i am sure you know if you go from using a card decently heavily and then stop using it then the issuer will email you with a reminder telling you not to forget to use it to earn cash back.
No, I don't know. My creditors do not do this.