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Here's a New Word for All of You....Contango

tag
Anonymous
Not applicable

Here's a New Word for All of You....Contango

Hi Everyone,

 

Well, it looks like low oil prices might be with us for only 12 more months. Smiley Sad

 

All of you should get to know a new term: Contango. Smiley Surprised

 

That's what happens when oil traders buy and store crude oil at a low price

(instead of delivering it) and then sell it at a higher price sometime in the future. Smiley Mad

 

Apparently, there's so much excess oil on the market and such low global

demand that this is becoming a very attractive and conservative way for oil

traders to make money and force prices higher in the future at the same time.

 

What a racket. Smiley Surprised

 

Here's a Bloomberg link with all the details.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aL2dc1mwHOdo&refer=home

 

I'd be very curious to hear your comments on this one. Don't be shy. Smiley Tongue

 

CanDo

 

"The right attitude is everything"

Message Edited by CanDoAttitude on 12-07-2008 09:55 PM
Message 1 of 7
6 REPLIES 6
haulingthescoreup
Moderator Emerita

Re: Here's a New Word for All of You....Contango

Hmm... what's wrong with the word "hoarding"?

But surely this falls under the category of business? Buy cheap, sell dear, and all that.
* Credit is a wonderful servant, but a terrible master. * Who's the boss --you or your credit?
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Message 2 of 7
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Here's a New Word for All of You....Contango

It depends what side of the hoarding equation you're on.

 

If you're a consumer, it means higher prices. If oil companies

and traders keep this up, we'll pay higher prices at the pump

a lot sooner than natural supply and demand forces dictate.

 

Right now prices are coming down and people are enjoying them,

but they don't trust that prices will stay low...and hoarding or contango

are good reasons why.

 

Banks are hoarding capital right now. This means we pay higher interest

rates and need higher FICO scores just to get the money. They are creating

the perception that money is tight so they can force rates higher. You'd think

during a recession they'd be doing everything possible to generate business,

not push it away.

 

So like I said, it depends which side of the equation you're on. In the case

of oil contango, an artificial shortage could be created to inflate prices just

so companies can make money in the short term at the consumers' expense.

It may be business, but I don't think it's smart business....

 

Edit to Add: Do you remember the gas lines of the 1970's. Even days, odd days,

lines stretching for miles just to fill our tanks??? There was no gas "shortage"...

oil companies just said there was so they could make obscene profits at our

expense. That's the potential danger I see with oil contango.

 

CanDo

 

"The right attitude is everything"

Message Edited by CanDoAttitude on 12-08-2008 04:55 AM
Message 3 of 7
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Here's a New Word for All of You....Contango

What exactly would be the "call to action" for us consumers in this situation? Do we just have to sit back and watch the oil companies take advantage of us or is there something we can do? I guess an obvious answer would be invest in these companies but what else could we do?
Message 4 of 7
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Here's a New Word for All of You....Contango

Hey jmeek, Smiley Happy

 

My advice is focus on what you can do, and don't worry

about what you can't. If you drive to work, you gotta buy gas.

 

Off the top of my head, I'd say take a practical

approach and curb your fuel usage as much as possible.

Even though we're in a recession, that's what people

are doing now...driving only when we have to and, where possible,

frequenting stores that let us get multiple things done in one

location (like a Kroger, Walmart, Target, etc).

 

And if you live in a place with good public transportation, I'd use

that as well. Let someone else worry about the driving while you relax

and take it easy. Anything to reduce your consumption helps to

reduce demand. Lower demand eventually leads to lower prices.

 

And of course, there's always walking. Lots of Americans are moving

back into the city and parking their cars. They carpool or take mass

transit to work, and they live in areas where everything they need is

within walking distance (shopping, restaurants, movies, etc). 

This is not just a fad. People are very conscious of their environmental

footprint and they want to keep it as small as possible. Smiley Happy

 

Politically, I'd put pressure on your members of Congress via email or

phone call. They don't like Big Oil as it is now, so giving them another

reason to pile on should get the ball rolling on your behalf.  

 

The media is also an excellent lever to pull. It doesn't matter if it's local

or national, most offices have entire staffs dedicated to investigative

reporting in the consumers' defense. If you read the Bloomberg article,

I'm sure you noticed that the oil companies and traders engaged in

oil contango refused to comment on their actions. This tells me that

they know Bloomberg is aware of the potential abuse in prices that

could take place...and believe me, they will stick with this story.

So like I said, the media is very powerful. Let's leverage them on

our collective behalf. 

 

30 years ago when the gas lines of the 70's took place, communications

technology wasn't anything close to what it is now. Everything happens

at Internet speed these days, just about everyone has a camera on

their cellphone and we blog/forum like crazy (this room included). So if

we speak up and use all the resources afforded to us, we can get almost

anything done. Smiley Happy 

 

CanDo

 

"The right attitude is everything"

Message 5 of 7
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Here's a New Word for All of You....Contango

Contango-Balloongo

 

The phenomenon where people are taking out balloon mortgages to live in houses much larger than they can afford to store barrels of oil they bought on speculation that prices would rise in a few years.

Message 6 of 7
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Here's a New Word for All of You....Contango

That's cute, debtisgood. I like that idea. Smiley Happy

 

Along that same vein, perhaps we should engage in

"Gold Balloon Contango". American homeowners take out those

same balloon mortgages and buy up all the gold we can get

our hands on. When prices rise in the future, we sell enough

to pay off our houses and donate the rest to Fort Knox.

 

Then every homeowner in America would actually own their

property free and clear, and there'd be so much gold at Fort Knox

that we could return the dollar to the gold standard. A dollar

would actually be worth something again, as opposed to the

fiat currency it is now (backed by the full faith and credit

of Uncle Sam). 

 

One US Dollar would equal $1 in gold. If the Treasury wanted

to inject more greenbacks into the market, they buy enough

gold to pay for them. Goodbye, inflation!!!!

 

Wishful thinking, I know. But it is something to think about...Smiley Happy

 

CanDo

 

"The right attitude is everything"

Message 7 of 7
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