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Holy cow if this goes nationwide!

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pipeguy
Senior Contributor

Re: Holy cow if this goes nationwide!


@compassion101 wrote:

Home values don't double in ten years on average


I'm sure that would depend on the area of the country you live in and I don't think we can look at recent history - meaning the last 6 years - as a true history. Parts of the country are much higher value increase - metro DC where I live is one. Obviously there are areas that don't follow this 10 year cycle - Detroit comes to mind and rural areas where LAND value increases faster than buildings - as I mentioned it’s a "rule of thumb" but not an absolute.

 

As an example of the Condo I had in Myrtle Beach - purchase price just under $80k, I sold it 5-6 years later for $125k, two years after that the market boomed and they were going for $185k, two years after that when the market crashed they were going for $98k - today $125k. The fact is had I actually lived there, and held on, my $79,500 investment would be going for $125k today all the while I deduced the taxes and interest (I would not have paid it off quickly if it was my primary home) and my PITI would continue to be less than $600 - cheaper than rent, even without the tax savings.

 

Obviously there are other considerations, in SC for an example - since I was talking about the condo in MB - if you are retired there are major real estate tax benefits for homeowners (mostly for the retired) - today that property would be almost tax free as far as yearly real estate taxes.

 

There are other tax benefits for "profiting" from real estate -  every 5 years you can take hundreds of thousands of dollars in tax free profit from the sale of your principle residence (it was $500k, but that number might have changed recently based on tax extenders not being renewed). In fact you could make 36 months of payments on your principle residence, sell it and it would qualify under the 5 year plan since 36 months is the greater of 60 - more than half. In markets like NYC and San Francisco prices can double in 5 years.

 

My comments were not meant to be an absolute - nor am I any part of the real estate business - but the original article in question ignored the value of real estate investment both as an asset and as a tax saving option in addition to a place to live. Real Estate loans are NOT car loans or Credit Cards and to treat all "loans" as such is to not understand the value of leverage and money working for you because the government in fact "pays you" to invest in home ownership. 

 

Message 11 of 15
compassion101
Established Contributor

Re: Holy cow if this goes nationwide!

Certainly some local real estate outperforms others, just as some areas underperform. But if you buy numerous homes throughout the country today, it would be unwise to assume they would double in value in ten years. 

 

Before 1970, housing values generally didn't even keep up with inflation (and much less considering the cost of improvements). As a few examples of median national  prices

 

http://www.jparsons.net/housingbubble/

 

http://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf

 

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/mortages-real-estate/11/the-truth-about-the-real-estate-market....

 

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ynrQyoAUzgM/UKvzBPEFGMI/AAAAAAAABg4/yLQ6jXe0q3w/s1600/U.S.+Housing+Price+I...

 

 

Even if you just look at prices since 1970, a home around 25k that doubles every 10 years would be worth 600k today, yet in actuality it is valued just over 200k.

 

I do agree though for sure that some appreciation is possible, along with some tax saving benefits. I'm not knocking the benefits of home ownership or rental real estate. But expecting a property you buy to double in ten years, while possible, is not a wise outlook when considering where best to put your money

Message 12 of 15
dccordell
Established Member

Re: Holy cow if this goes nationwide!

I had never read up on the NACA mortgage before, so I did yesterday.

 

It seems the bigget selling point is not having any PMI. Couple that with a low interest rate that is possible by buying down the rate (and the lender matching in some circumstances), it seems like the amount you qualify for might actually be more than with the 30-yr. Not to mention no closing costs.

 

They do have a calculator on the NACA site that shows either how much house you could buy with $x/month payment, or what your payments would be for a certain loan amount. I'm not sure if I actually trust it because the numbers seem inflated. A $299k house for $1450/month all-inclusive? I don't know about all that...

 

We are seriously thinking about trying to go with NACA. I've read so many horror stories of not being able to close on time and losing all earnest money, so that part is very scary. It seems like the best time to try to get the actual mortgage would be during the slow season.

Message 13 of 15
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Holy cow if this goes nationwide!


@pipeguy wrote:

@compassion101 wrote:

Home values don't double in ten years on average


I'm sure that would depend on the area of the country you live in and I don't think we can look at recent history - meaning the last 6 years - as a true history. Parts of the country are much higher value increase - metro DC where I live is one. Obviously there are areas that don't follow this 10 year cycle - Detroit comes to mind and rural areas where LAND value increases faster than buildings - as I mentioned it’s a "rule of thumb" but not an absolute.

 

As an example of the Condo I had in Myrtle Beach - purchase price just under $80k, I sold it 5-6 years later for $125k, two years after that the market boomed and they were going for $185k, two years after that when the market crashed they were going for $98k - today $125k. The fact is had I actually lived there, and held on, my $79,500 investment would be going for $125k today all the while I deduced the taxes and interest (I would not have paid it off quickly if it was my primary home) and my PITI would continue to be less than $600 - cheaper than rent, even without the tax savings.

 

Obviously there are other considerations, in SC for an example - since I was talking about the condo in MB - if you are retired there are major real estate tax benefits for homeowners (mostly for the retired) - today that property would be almost tax free as far as yearly real estate taxes.

 

There are other tax benefits for "profiting" from real estate -  every 5 years you can take hundreds of thousands of dollars in tax free profit from the sale of your principle residence (it was $500k, but that number might have changed recently based on tax extenders not being renewed). In fact you could make 36 months of payments on your principle residence, sell it and it would qualify under the 5 year plan since 36 months is the greater of 60 - more than half. In markets like NYC and San Francisco prices can double in 5 years.

 

My comments were not meant to be an absolute - nor am I any part of the real estate business - but the original article in question ignored the value of real estate investment both as an asset and as a tax saving option in addition to a place to live. Real Estate loans are NOT car loans or Credit Cards and to treat all "loans" as such is to not understand the value of leverage and money working for you because the government in fact "pays you" to invest in home ownership. 

 


I get where you are coming from, but what you are failing to realize is that the mortgage interest deduction on <$150,000 is worth next to nothing if your itemized deductions dont already come close to the standard deduction of 6200/12400 for single/married filers. I filed itemized one year *only* because I was able to claim large medical expenses on top of moving expenses, and it got me about 600 bucks at best. My itemized deductions were about 2k above the standard deduction. Any other year my itemized deductions barely come to half the standard deduction. On a $100,000 note the mortgage interest deduction is not even close being comparable to the amount your are putting into the equity of the property (around 25% of $3K interest vs 4K+ per year of equity bought). Lets face it, this is NOT a product targeted at people that can afford $300,000 mortgages that are paying 10-12K in interest each year for the first ten years of the loan.

Something like this makes a heck of a lot of sense for people in the lower middle incomes brackets, making 30-50K a year. It allows them to build equity quickly in a less expensive property, which they can then leverage as their income grows.

Message 14 of 15
Anonymous
Not applicable

Re: Holy cow if this goes nationwide!


@pipeguy wrote:

Note: edited, forgot to spell check...

 

There is very little I agree with in that article because it looks at a real estate loan as a car loan or credit card loan - the point is 30 year loans are not designed to ever be paid off. Well, of course not - the bank makes more money that way.

 

First, interest and taxes are deductible so a 4 percent loan becomes a net 3 percent loan (depends on tax bracket, etc.). And by paying the same amount as points instead of a down payment, you're getting close to ZERO interest (.125%). Lets see...4% (net 3% thanks to my oh so generous government) or .125%...How is this NOT a 'no brainer'?

 

Second, the value of the house will increase - depends on location and a whole bunch of other factors, but historically the value of real estate doubles every 10 years -- this 2X factor is just a rule of thumb not an absolute. You can borrow against or refinance based on this increased market worth. Well, gee...it increases the same  regardless of what loan product I'm using doesn't it? Paying 3% net for 30 years does not magically make it increase faster.

 

Third, real estate is probably the safest investment you can make - even the market balloon and crash of 2006-2009 was a temporary on paper gain-loss in the long term.  I don't really see the relevence of this point - you're STILL purchasing real estate, are you not? You're just purchasing the equity much faster - how is that a bad thing?

 

Finally, you need a place to live and over time - not too much - your PITI mortgage payment will become as cheap or cheaper than the asking rent for other houses or apt's. I don't even see the relevance of this point at all - owning is almost always cheaper than renting - otherwise there would be no rental market.

 

Again, real estate loans are not credit card or fix term auto loans - paying off the loan is way down the list and getting the absolute cheapest interest rate is a goal, but it’s not the deal breaker you might think (most of us go to mortgage lenders  hat in hand anyway). OK, so explain to me under what conditions you would find 3% money to be a better deal than .125% money? Assuming the down payment is equal to the amount paid for the points bought.

 

If you actually pay off the mortgage, your income taxes are going to take a major hit. Other the other hand I purchased a brand new condo at the beach in the mid 1990's, put $30k down, financed $50k, paid it off in just under 3 years and sold it after 5-6 years for $125k - but this was a vacation place at the beach, not a primary home. The value of the home mortgage deduction is highly overstated. On a $300K 3% (net) loan its worth about $3K per year, assuming the standard deduction is already met, but in the last years of a 30 year mortgage its only worth a few hundred dollars - so wheres the 'big hit'? And if you compare it to 15 year, .125% money, the value of the interest deduction doesn't even matter. Who cares about 3K in taxes, if you're getting 14K MORE equity in the first year of ownership? Thats on 300K, 30 year 3% net money, vs 300K, 15 year .125% money. IMO, the only reason the 30 year fixed is the 'product of choice' is not that its best for the consumer, its that its good for the real estate agents and mortgage brokers, who get bigger commissions selling more expensive properties.

Personally I think this is a pretty intriguing product, one I will definitely look at in the next year or so as my credit gets cleaned up. 

 

 


 

Message 15 of 15
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