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I'm in nearly the same boat...
2 CO's from 2008
1 unpaid medical CA from 2010 $3000
Tons of lates in 2008, none for 18 months
$53k income, midscore 637 and just got USDA pre-approval no problem. My LO said that worst-case, USDA conditions basically mirror FHA. In most cases, it's a little more lienient. All down to UW discretion in the end, but he said I fit the bill so I assume you would too.
I'm right there with you. 3 charge-offs from about 2010, all paid but settled for less than full. I've got an open collection for $1700 that is not reporting to the CRAs. June's ScoreWatch says 631. I'd like to get pre-qualified soon, but can't sell my house (underwater). Looking to rent it out but must seek approval since New Hampshire housing Finance Authority stipulates that properties must be owner-occupied. For me, I think the big decider is going to be DTI ratio. Since rent for my current property would not be able to count as income, I'd have to qualify with both payments. On my salary alone, I would be within the limits for up to a $170k house. If I add my wife, whose credit is worse than mine, our DTI would allow up to $270k. Need to work on her credit a bit so that we can both apply.
Another hidden benefit in all this is that one of USDA's qualifications stipulates that you must be inelegible for a conventional mortgage, whether that is due to your downpayment available or marginal credit. So with scores above 620-ish, and good recent history with maybe a few old blemishes, it's actually tailored for you in a way.