short term = no
long term = yes
a good lender can give you a break even point in 'number of months' to recoup fees. looks like a 48 month breakeven before tax credits. maybe look at a 25yr loan? make it sweeter?
i like the deal on the surface.... but there are better lenders to deal with that will close on time and have better service.
appraisal will affect analysis. if above 80% ltv.... you still have pmi for a short time. but it will be same or less than your current pmi
If your home does appraise for $200k, then a conventional loan will definitly benefit you because you would not have PMI. You could even get a lower interest rate on today's market. The fees seem a bit high, I recommend shopping around for the best deal. If you have more questions contact me by email through my profile.