@Anonymous wrote:
@Revelate wrote:About the same as they are today.
Any possible increase at the end of the year will be more than offset by the lenders trying to cram one more wave of refinances (i.e. money from the trough) through before that window of opportunity goes away.
China is still in flux, and that's going to have a bigger impact on the economy than I think the talking heads are pontificating (they carry more than just 1T in treasury debt, whole boatload of real estate was sold to China and Tiger Cub nations' investors) and the Fed even if things were going swimmingly well, could only move in small increments anyway without tanking the housing market among other things.
There's just no chance in hell they could move it 2% in a year let alone 7 months, economy would fall off the cliff; if anything it'd be 0.25 per quarter and that's extremely aggressive... and I think it's going to be more like 0.125 or even half of that again per quarter with how China and Europe are looking currently.
I think that the Fed only moves in 0.25% increments. I'm expecting an increase of 0.25% (with a slight chance of 0.5%) by Feb, with 30 year mortgage interest rates moving higher 0.5%-0.75%.
.25 over six months = .125 per quarter was what I was trying to get at, my apologies for confusing the issue. I doubt 0.5 by Feb (I wouldn't wager on a rate hike before December), but we'll see... I am glad I got my own rate sorted already.
