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Hi ktm214,
I can help you with the score watch. If you look at the Score Watch Guide, its a sticky over on the myFICO Product Feedback board.
It's too much info to retype or paste here. Score watch is very confusing, so if you have questions about it, you can ask over on the other board.
Sorry i cant help with your other questions, but others will chime in soon.
Per changing DOFDs, no, CAs cannot change DOFD. In fact, nobody can change any DOFD, unless it was originally reporting incorrectly. How do you know it changed (it can happen)? Really the only way to tell is by looking at and seeing changes in the drop off dates listed in EX and TU, or by noticing a change in the DOFD listed on EQ. Other dates do and can change like DOLA, reported dates, date of last payment, etc.
Can't speak to the odds. But be sure to DV first before a PFD. Also search around for others' results. Seems like there was a spike in MCM activity with MCM giving up after a simple DV or PFD.
You can send a DV after your 30 days, but there's no legal backing behind the letter. The CA doesn't have to respond and can continue to collect. However, most will respond after receiving your letter.