Lates and their affect on scoring

[scarrollprint]

Ok - I know trying to figure out fico scoring is like trying to figure out when a politician is telling the truth; however, I just wanted to know if anyone has any idea on the general idea.

Are lates based on a percentage or are they given a factual weight based on age, or kinda both.

i.e. Lets say I have 1 card, I miss one payment and then have 11 months of ontime payments. would it affect the score based on the fact that my lateness was 1/12 of the time? and that if I had 3 cards and only missed 1 payment on one of them then it would be 1/36 of the time?

Or is it strictly an age thing - for every month your on time, no matter how many payments you make (cc/loan/etc) you get X amount of points boost from the drop you had with the late payment.

I know I'm way over thinking this, just trying to get a grasp on where I should see myself in the next year or so and trying to make descions such as "is it worth it to keep my cap1 card and pay an annual fee just so i have another year between me and a late"

[Shogun]

My interpretation of it.  It depends on the severity of the late.  Was it a 30, 60 or 90?   A thirty day late will hit you hard at first, but it's impact dwindles pretty fast.  Loses some over one year, and has lost quite a bit by 2.  By 5 it's not really affecting you anymore.   However a 90 is a major derogatory, it will diminish over time, but will still affect your score until it falls off.

[rckstrscott]

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@scarrollprint wrote:

Ok - I know trying to figure out fico scoring is like trying to figure out when a politician is telling the truth; however, I just wanted to know if anyone has any idea on the general idea.

Are lates based on a percentage or are they given a factual weight based on age, or kinda both.

i.e. Lets say I have 1 card, I miss one payment and then have 11 months of ontime payments. would it affect the score based on the fact that my lateness was 1/12 of the time? and that if I had 3 cards and only missed 1 payment on one of them then it would be 1/36 of the time?

Or is it strictly an age thing - for every month your on time, no matter how many payments you make (cc/loan/etc) you get X amount of points boost from the drop you had with the late payment.

I know I'm way over thinking this, just trying to get a grasp on where I should see myself in the next year or so and trying to make descions such as "is it worth it to keep my cap1 card and pay an annual fee just so i have another year between me and a late"

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Way over thinking

FICO models and algorithims change based on what is on your report.. so the amount of points you gain from aging of anything, whether thats a negative late payment, colleciton account, ect will vary depending on the other peices of information on your report..

If you have one 30 day late payment, and that is your only negative, you should see most of those points, but not all, return by the 2 year mark.. but ya know, lets say you have a credit score of 720... and your util is 37 percent... and you AAoA is 6 years... and you have a 30 day late, you score might drop to 600 the month it reports... but lets say you drop your util to 4 percent 3 months later, you will get a boost from that, and that will counteract some of the loss... then after 2 years; your mix is better, and your score is actually higher...... but why is it higher? the aging? the change of information? both?

It is just way too hard to predict..

My personal opinion is: maximum damage after 1 month, pretty fast increases the next 6 months.. slow increases to 2 years.. most points back after 2 years

-scott

[scarrollprint]

Ok, thanks for the info.

I have some nice age on some accounts that are still on my reports and my AAOA is around 7 years with nothing about to drop off in the next 5 years that would affect my average in a negative standpoint. (plus by then my 2 SL would have aged to the 10 year point).

I guess I'll just keep the 1 Cap1 card since it does give me time and payments between some lates.

I have 1 90 day late from about 1 year ago - and was hoping that keeping the card would help lessen the blow. I'll probably just keep it pay the AF for another year and then send it to the chopping block as a positive tradeline that was 3 years old.

[Anonymous]

If it helps any, I had a score of about...667 with a 90 day late. As soon as it was removed my score shot up to 688. At that time I did apply for additional credit and received a hard inquiry and a reduction in my AAoA but I still saw a significant increase. Then when my 120 was removed I was pushed to 702.

So like Shogun says, the severity of the late can affect the scoring. In my case, the 90 and 120 were killing me the entire 7 years they were on my report. And as Scott said, I don't know if the fact I received additional credit (and I did pay down some utilization on my cards) helped or by how much.

If you keep the Cap One card, see if maybe they will waive the AF. I don't know why they do it in some cases but I guess it never hurts to try.