The mysteries of the FICO Score Simulator

[Anonymous]

I was going to wait until I had a few things cleaned up to get the 3-bureau monitoring, but got some good news today and wanted to see how it would reflect.

Anyway, I'm playing with the simular and it says if I pay down $6,230 (of $6,850) in student loans my scores will get the best adjustment. I know the inner workings of FICO are mysterious, but, assuming the simulator is somewhat accurate, it seems odd that I would get a 15 pt hit on EQ for paying it off, but and a little extrra bump from TU. Could it be because this would be my last open installment account?

Also, feedback on how accurate it is? I'm contemplating what to do on this loan. If paying it down by $3,450 would get me that kind of bump, and one of my primary goals is eliminating debt, it seems like it would be most beneficial to my score to pay down by that amount, ride out on-time payments for a year or two, then pay off the rest. 

Pay down by half ($3,450)

EQ: 571 -> 581

TU: 582 -> 597

EX: 584 -> 584

"Sweet spot" ($6,230)

EQ: 571 -> 601

TU: 582 -> 602

EX: 584 -> 594

If I pay it off in full

EQ: 571 -> 586

TU: 582 -> 602

EX: 584 -> 594

[Anonymous]

I used the simulator myself & they said keep paying on my existing cards for 18 months & I should see a little under 850!  Music to my ears if it's true!  That means I have about 13 months to go.  I tried other scenerios on there also & that seemed to get the highest score.  Not sure if anyone has any other input on this or got the results they were told?  I am gardening now to see if it will work.  

[Anonymous]

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@Anonymous wrote:

I used the simulator myself & they said keep paying on my existing cards for 18 months & I should see a little under 850!  Music to my ears if it's true!  That means I have about 13 months to go.  I tried other scenerios on there also & that seemed to get the highest score.  Not sure if anyone has any other input on this or got the results they were told?  I am gardening now to see if it will work.  

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Almost seems like we need a long term study on this. Someone on here must have done it!

I wish they had an option for "paying off a collection". I know they say it doesn't have any effect on your score, but I have seen 10 to 15 pt bumps from paying/settling outstanding collection/charge off accounts. 

[RobertEG]

Fair Isaac's own simulator is run off of their own algorithms.  The issue is not one of its accuracy, it is one of is vaugeness.

By intention, the simulator includes more than just changes in a single scoring parameter.  Otherwise, its use would permit reverse engineering of its propritetary secrets.

Since Fair \isaac chose to rely on trade secret rather than patent protection of its algorithms, they must protect the ability to reverse engineet.

It will thus include a period of time for a given change, which will then also include changes in other scoring categories, particularly age of accounts and aging of derogs.

One cannot, by design, simply input a new balance and see today's change in scoring based only on a change in uatilization.