Don't think I hit any additional boundaries as far as scoring goes and utilization is roughly the same (same number of cards reporting a balance, same overall percentage, no tradeline >9% individually), but I did get a silly IRS tax lien added as I fumbled the communication with an IRS agent:
EQ Beacon 5.0: 670 -> 665.
Public record count: 2 -> 3
Federal tax lien from 12/13
State tax lien from 12/10
Federal tax lien from 5/04
Going through the fresh start paperwork since I actually paid it before the lien was filed heh, not certain that I'll be able to see the score bounce back exactly because I have a non-trivial number of anniversaries in January (last scorable inquiries drop off and a number of tradelines turn a year old if that matters, and the bulk of the rest turn 2).
Appears to be serious diminishing returns with regards to public records and additional penalities for new ones.
Further update for completeness, turns out I had forgotten EQ only had the State Tax lien on it from 12/10.
That said have recent updates to TU and EX
EQ '04: 670 -> 665
TU '08: 711 -> 672
EX '08: 718 -> 662
Far more substantial penalty in the '08 models; both EX and TU have all 3 liens on them. There's a small loss potentially from my number of accounts reporting balances from 3->4 on the TU/EX pulls, but this likely not substantial, couple points most likely. Unfortunately have a few changes coming up in Jan/Feb and as such I may not get a good measurement on balances vs. public record for however long it takes for the IRS to airstrike the paid lien off the credit reports. Would've been better for data analystics for this to happen in June, c'est la guerre.
Just filed my fresh start paperwork as well. How much would you expect to see from having 1 to 0 and from 3 to zero as far as increase in FICO scores? Just a ballpark is fine. I know there are lots of other variables
@Longroad wrote:Just filed my fresh start paperwork as well. How much would you expect to see from having 1 to 0 and from 3 to zero as far as increase in FICO scores? Just a ballpark is fine. I know there are lots of other variables
I think that very much depends on which score: it appears at least for me and for some others anecdotally that '08 weighs recent information substantially more than "ancient" history (in credit reporting terms, 0 = new, ~10 years = ancient).
It's also hard to know from a bucketing perspective. I suspect on EQ '04 that 2 or 3 -> 0 looks suspiciously similar to 1 -> 0: in my case I suspect I might get on the order of 30-40 points actually (I have a 3 year old colleciton and a 3 year old 60 day late as well, saving me from a pretty bucket); if I were absolutely clean it's hard to say: if it were my only negative and just recently added, we're probably talking even higher than that possibly on the order of 80 points on either my EX or TU '08. This is all SWAGGED.
The problem with any sort of prediction is it very much depends on the rest of the credit report. Someone that has a prettier report will lose more with the addition of a public record, and they'll gain more once it gets removed too.
In my case with a mixed file, I lose less, but I also gain less.
Further complicating it, there's a bucketing issue which as soon as I get clean I'm certain I'm going to go through (you only get scored against people with similar data elements) and my file compared to those with public records might be pretty good all things considered... but it's not by the standards of the high acheivers on this forum. My score might actually dip if I got them airstruck today, but I suspect by the time my paid Cali lien comes off in another 4 years I expect to have a nice report by then so it'll be a non-issue. Fact is, with a public record on one's account, there's virtually no way to score in the upper schelons of the FICO model (I think my current report might top out around 700 on EQ honestly, nowhere close to the theoretical 850) so end of the day it's far better to get the negative information removed even if it causes a temporary dip. Credit is a long-term adventure.
@Revelate wrote:
@Longroad wrote:Just filed my fresh start paperwork as well. How much would you expect to see from having 1 to 0 and from 3 to zero as far as increase in FICO scores? Just a ballpark is fine. I know there are lots of other variables
I think that very much depends on which score: it appears at least for me and for some others anecdotally that '08 weighs recent information substantially more than "ancient" history (in credit reporting terms, 0 = new, ~10 years = ancient).
It's also hard to know from a bucketing perspective. I suspect on EQ '04 that 2 or 3 -> 0 looks suspiciously similar to 1 -> 0: in my case I suspect I might get on the order of 30-40 points actually (I have a 3 year old colleciton and a 3 year old 60 day late as well, saving me from a pretty bucket); if I were absolutely clean it's hard to say: if it were my only negative and just recently added, we're probably talking even higher than that possibly on the order of 80 points on either my EX or TU '08. This is all SWAGGED.
The problem with any sort of prediction is it very much depends on the rest of the credit report. Someone that has a prettier report will lose more with the addition of a public record, and they'll gain more once it gets removed too.
In my case with a mixed file, I lose less, but I also gain less.
Further complicating it, there's a bucketing issue which as soon as I get clean I'm certain I'm going to go through (you only get scored against people with similar data elements) and my file compared to those with public records might be pretty good all things considered... but it's not by the standards of the high acheivers on this forum. My score might actually dip if I got them airstruck today, but I suspect by the time my paid Cali lien comes off in another 4 years I expect to have a nice report by then so it'll be a non-issue. Fact is, with a public record on one's account, there's virtually no way to score in the upper schelons of the FICO model (I think my current report might top out around 700 on EQ honestly, nowhere close to the theoretical 850) so end of the day it's far better to get the negative information removed even if it causes a temporary dip. Credit is a long-term adventure.
Revelate, I so much admire all your insightful and informative posts. I think you are doing good despite any public records. I too had a public record in the way of BK7 that dropped in 2013. I replaced one negative with another. I think I must be in a low scoring bucket because my Equifax estimate that if I pay down credit cards 90-100% in 24 months my score will be in 672-712 range and TU estimate 671-711 for same time period. I guess i should be glad it is not worst. I just want my scores to grow and just have to do the slow steady way. It is important to try to get the report as clean as possible. Any insights will be appreciated.
dcal
Starting Score: TU 572,EX-578,EQ-539 1-1-2014
@dcal wrote:
@Revelate wrote:
@Longroad wrote:Just filed my fresh start paperwork as well. How much would you expect to see from having 1 to 0 and from 3 to zero as far as increase in FICO scores? Just a ballpark is fine. I know there are lots of other variables
I think that very much depends on which score: it appears at least for me and for some others anecdotally that '08 weighs recent information substantially more than "ancient" history (in credit reporting terms, 0 = new, ~10 years = ancient).
It's also hard to know from a bucketing perspective. I suspect on EQ '04 that 2 or 3 -> 0 looks suspiciously similar to 1 -> 0: in my case I suspect I might get on the order of 30-40 points actually (I have a 3 year old colleciton and a 3 year old 60 day late as well, saving me from a pretty bucket); if I were absolutely clean it's hard to say: if it were my only negative and just recently added, we're probably talking even higher than that possibly on the order of 80 points on either my EX or TU '08. This is all SWAGGED.
The problem with any sort of prediction is it very much depends on the rest of the credit report. Someone that has a prettier report will lose more with the addition of a public record, and they'll gain more once it gets removed too.
In my case with a mixed file, I lose less, but I also gain less.
Further complicating it, there's a bucketing issue which as soon as I get clean I'm certain I'm going to go through (you only get scored against people with similar data elements) and my file compared to those with public records might be pretty good all things considered... but it's not by the standards of the high acheivers on this forum. My score might actually dip if I got them airstruck today, but I suspect by the time my paid Cali lien comes off in another 4 years I expect to have a nice report by then so it'll be a non-issue. Fact is, with a public record on one's account, there's virtually no way to score in the upper schelons of the FICO model (I think my current report might top out around 700 on EQ honestly, nowhere close to the theoretical 850) so end of the day it's far better to get the negative information removed even if it causes a temporary dip. Credit is a long-term adventure.
Revelate, I so much admire all your insightful and informative posts. I think you are doing good despite any public records. I too had a public record in the way of BK7 that dropped in 2013. I replaced one negative with another. I think I must be in a low scoring bucket because my Equifax estimate that if I pay down credit cards 90-100% in 24 months my score will be in 672-712 range and TU estimate 671-711 for same time period. I guess i should be glad it is not worst. I just want my scores to grow and just have to do the slow steady way. It is important to try to get the report as clean as possible. Any insights will be appreciated.
dcal
90-100% revolving utilization is a killer in the FICO model: the only thing worse is a recent major derogatory for most people.
If that's all that's hurting you, once you get out of debt you'll be in great shape honestly.
*Typically* revolving utilization doesn't re-bucket you unless you have a large percentage utilized for some, likely extended, period of time. I've never seen it on my reports but I never let a high utilization go for more than the single reporting month. The people that have, usually a few months after they paid it off, scores went back to normal for them.