FICO Score Simulator and Scores

[WhiskersTheCat]

So I am not big on the FICO Score Simulator because in the past it has failed to predict the future, but I have one baddie and it’s predicting my score will rise 100 points when it comes off in two months. So I filed bankruptcy nearly ten years ago and it is scheduled to come off soon, and when I set the simulator to three months from now it predicts a 100 point boost ( 689 to 789 Equifax FICO 8). My mortgage scores, which I am most interested in, are at 724 Eq and 738 Ex. I am wondering if I should expect much of a boost from these? My experience is that the newer scores are more sensitive to the amount of open accounts (primarily credit cards) than the older scores. By that I mean that the more accounts I have open, the higher the score. Given that I currently only have one credit card open, the newer scores are lower for example:

Equifax:

FICO 5 724 and FICO 8 689

FICO Auto 5 720 and Auto 8 698

FICO Bankcard 5 733 and Bankcard 8 707

Same goes for Experian:

FICO Score 2 738 and FICO 8 682

FICO Auto Score 2 719 and FICO Auto Score 8 713

FICO Bankcard 2 731 and Bankcard Score 8 703

I also noticed that older scores don’t change with changing utility, whereas the newer scores do. I wonder if only having one credit card open has anything to do with that? I have varied my credit card usage between 3% and 60% and mortgage scores do not change. I wonder if anyone can shed some light on this?

[takeshi74]

(nm)

[Anonymous]

Thanks, OP, for starting this thread...I have exactly the same intention in mind for subscribing to myFICO's Ultimate package, to use the simulator.  Could you elaborate on what was the difference, exactly in your starting scores, the projected scores, and then the actual scores, for that time you experienced the failure of the score simulator?

You also mentioned that the scores aren't updated with changes to utilization...this would be a major prohibitor for me to subscribe to myFICO.  Are you saying that you pulled your once-per-year report  for your 3 CBs, and then your utilization  changed month-to-month but your FICO scores were not updated?

[WhiskersTheCat]

Okay so here’s a little history. Since the only thing I want a credit score for to get a mortgage, the only score I focused on was Equifax’s Mortgage Score (FICO Score 5) purchased on myFICO and Equifax website. Below is a brief history of most of my scores (one or two are missing but can’t find them on my computer):

Date                Score               Inquiries          CC Utility       Comments

03/07/2012      714                  0                      NA                  No Credit Card

01/25/2013      714                  0                      NA                  No Credit Card

05/29/2013      714                  0                      NA                  No Credit Card

07/08/2013      712                  1                      NA                  No Credit Card

09/15/2013      709                  2                      NA                  No Credit Card

10/24/2013      695                  3                      NA                  No Credit Card

12/11/2013      707                  3                      23%                New Credit Card

05/07/2014      707                  3                      10%                Nothing new to report

07/11/2014      717                  1                      10%                Two Inquiries > 1 year old

10/28/2014      724                  0                      3%                  No Inquiries < 1 year old

03/13/2015      724                  0                      3%                  Auto Loan Dropped Off, AAoA still 10 Years

So from my perspective, it appears that the only thing that made my score change were the inquiries which made my score go down, and when the inquiries aged, my score went up. When I opened my credit card, my score went up (likely due to mix of credit). My auto loan which dropped off my report and my credit card utility did not appear to factor into my score at all. In contrast with FICO 8 the following resulted:

Date                Score               Inquiries          CC Utility       Comments

01/04/2015      662                  0                      55%                 High Utility

03/13/2015      689                  0                      3%                   Low Utility

Any thoughts? Anybody?

[WhiskersTheCat]

I also forgot to mention that I paid off six installment loans on the reports pulled 05/29/2013, so in theory that should have reduced my mix of credit and lowered my score.  But my score remained the same. 

[Anonymous]

I've picked all this apart to no end.  When you have little or no cc's.  They ding you for it.  When you do get them, they ding you for it.  I was paying on a mtg, car payment & 4 low limit cc's for 3 yrs.  No change in my score at all!  Then decided to go out and get some good cc's wtih rewards & a new larger car payment, it seems to make a difference. My scores went down about 50 odd points when this happened.  I'm sure from the HP's & new cc's & car payment.  But it looks like that it making a difference.  My score are rebounding nicely & the simulator says I should be between 840/850 in about 10 months.  Once the new cc's age I guess.  It looks like they want a good diversity of credit with low utilization.  My util. is currently above 10% because I did some shopping at RH & have a balance on that card.  But it is 12 months same as cash so I don't care if it lowers my score at the moment.  I want to finish with my house.  You have great scores and I'm sure you will get your home.    I've been trying to figure their code out for some time now.  Very hard to do.  Kind of like picking the winning numbers for the lottery!

[WhiskersTheCat]

I had come to a pretty similar conclusion. I have been on the fence about getting another credit card, but it seems that if I do, the inquiry might do more harm than good. If I assume an inquiry for a new credit card and two or more for a mortgage, then I might lose another 19+ points which might make it difficult once again. Truth is I don’t need another card as I already have a credit card, a debit card, and a business card (for work purposes).

Date                Score               Inquiries          CC Utility       Comments

03/07/2012      714                  0                      NA                  No Credit Card, Six Installment

01/25/2013      714                  0                      NA                  No Credit Card, Six Installment

05/29/2013      714                  0                      NA                  No Credit Card, No Installment

07/08/2013      712                  1                      NA                  No Credit Card, No Installment

09/15/2013      709                  2                      NA                  No Credit Card, No Installment

10/24/2013      695                  3                      NA                  No Credit Card, No Installment

12/11/2013      707                  3                      23%                New Credit Card

05/07/2014      707                  3                      10%    

07/11/2014      717                  1                      10%                 Two Inquiries > 1 year old

10/28/2014      724                  0                      3%                  No Inquiries < 1 year old

03/13/2015      724                  0                      3%                   Auto Loan Dropped Off, AAoA still 10 Years

[Anonymous]

Very true!  We built our new home & had to wait 8/9 months.  The broker told us not to do anything at all in that time.  Only what she said.  I would definitely wait on another cc until you get your home.  She said no new cars, etc. until we close.