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Established Contributor
Posts: 835
Registered: ‎05-05-2015
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Fico has lost it's mind. Says I will be at 850 in two years.

[ Edited ]

According to MyFico's simulator.  I will have a 850 score on Equifax in two years with on time payments and bringing my utilzation down from 6% to 1%. My current   EQ is 707

 

The other two will only be 734 and 747 at that time.  Currently 694 and 712.  Not sure what kind of steroids EQ will be on at the time but I need to add some to TU and EX.  lol

 

All of my baddies will be gone from all three at that time and I will have a couple accounts over 20 years old.  But, I know this is just a simulator and really doubt my score will jump up there, just thought I would post for laughs.  

 

Wish me luck though,  You never know. And a guy can dream. right?

Senior Contributor
Posts: 6,742
Registered: ‎04-11-2016
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Re: Fico has lost it's mind. Says I will be at 850 in two years.

As you said, simulators are garbage.  They are about as reliable as the weather man.

 

In order to achieve an 850 score, you need to have just about all of the pieces of the credit puzzle in place.  Some of these pieces include but may not be limited to:  No negative items at all, single-digit aggregate utilization as well as less than 50% of your total revolvers reporting small balances, a relatively "thick" file, a relatively high AAoA, a relatively high AoOA, an AoYA of greater than 1 year, no inquiries or very limited inquiries and the presence of an open installment loan at single-digit utilization. 

 

Those things combined would give a pretty good shot at the perfect 850.  I'm sure an 850 can be achieved if one piece of that puzzle is slightly off, but I'm not sure about if multiple things are off.  Those with 850 scores can certainly chime in and offer more insight.

Valued Contributor
Posts: 1,675
Registered: ‎06-30-2016
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Re: Fico has lost it's mind. Says I will be at 850 in two years.

A simulator can only feasibly calculate changes based on the information its given. We all know the sims can really only handle a few scenarios at once to sim, AND they have to be all on relatively similar spectrums.

 

So we have to figure it's assuming that everything else is perfect, or stays the same during that time. I don't think it's unrealistic if you do everything exactly right, given what you've told us here.


EX08 659 EQ08 660 TU08 695 Starting: mid 300'sGoal: 700
Valued Contributor
Posts: 2,133
Registered: ‎04-01-2015

Re: Fico has lost it's mind. Says I will be at 850 in two years.


BrutalBodyShots wrote:

As you said, simulators are garbage.  They are about as reliable as the weather man.

 

In order to achieve an 850 score, you need to have just about all of the pieces of the credit puzzle in place.  Some of these pieces include but may not be limited to:  No negative items at all, single-digit aggregate utilization as well as less than 50% of your total revolvers reporting small balances, a relatively "thick" file, a relatively high AAoA, a relatively high AoOA, an AoYA of greater than 1 year, no inquiries or very limited inquiries and the presence of an open installment loan at single-digit utilization

 

Those things combined would give a pretty good shot at the perfect 850.  I'm sure an 850 can be achieved if one piece of that puzzle is slightly off, but I'm not sure about if multiple things are off.  Those with 850 scores can certainly chime in and offer more insight.


A substantial percentage of 850 posters have reported aggregate B/L in the 30% to 70% range. A common denominator for 850 at a high aggregate B/L ratio is an open mortgage or home equity loan along with "lengthy" on time payment history on the loan.

Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850 (3/2017)
Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850 (3/2017)
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 804 TU 823 EX 830 (3/2017) EX Fico 98: 839 (3/2017)
VS 3.0:...... EQ 832 TU 832 EX 832 (3/2017)
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 887 TU 899 EX 900 (3/2017)
CBIS: ........LN Auto 940 LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950 (4/2017)
Senior Contributor
Posts: 6,742
Registered: ‎04-11-2016
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Re: Fico has lost it's mind. Says I will be at 850 in two years.

Does a lengthy on time payment history on a mortgage equate to a low mortgage utilization percentage, or are those two different factors?

Super Contributor
Posts: 6,773
Registered: ‎10-30-2014

Re: Fico has lost it's mind. Says I will be at 850 in two years.


alottacards wrote:

According to MyFico's simulator.  I will have a 850 score on Equifax in two years with on time payments and bringing my utilzation down from 6% to 1%. My current   EQ is 707

 

The other two will only be 734 and 747 at that time.  Currently 694 and 712.  Not sure what kind of steroids EQ will be on at the time but I need to add some to TU and EX.  lol

 

All of my baddies will be gone from all three at that time and I will have a couple accounts over 20 years old.  But, I know this is just a simulator and really doubt my score will jump up there, just thought I would post for laughs.  

 

Wish me luck though,  You never know. And a guy can dream. right?


If your baddies all drop, you do not apply for any more cards, you make all your payments on time, you have an active Term Loan at reasonable utilization (not necessarily single digit utilization) and your CC utilization drops to 1%, I predict you will be at 850. This is because you will be borrowing nearly nothing, and won't have new accounts raising your risk.

 

I think the simulators are reasonable approximations of what is possible. Where they go sideways is not in the simulation, but in the action of the cardholder. Making a bunch of applications, raising utilization, taking on new loans, hinder the results.

 

The simulator that I ran in late 2014, when I was in the low 700s predicted 800+ if my balances got down to the $20k range. I delayed it by apping a bunch, but eventually quieted things down and at around $20k open balances, and admitedly a lower utilization, my scores are well over 800 now. A lot of that I think has to do with no new accounts for the last year.

High Bal Jan 2009 $116k on $146k limits 80% Util.
Oct 2014 $46k on $127k 36% util EQ 722 TU 727 EX 727 FICO Simulator 2014: $20k balances = 812 FICO.
March 2017 $20k on $300k 6% util EQ 824 TU 824 EX 815

7 / 24 counting down to 1 Nov 2017
Valued Contributor
Posts: 2,133
Registered: ‎04-01-2015

Re: Fico has lost it's mind. Says I will be at 850 in two years.


BrutalBodyShots wrote:

Does a lengthy on time payment history on a mortgage equate to a low mortgage utilization percentage, or are those two different factors?


Although length of payment history does impact remaining balance, the two factors are separate. Outstanding B/L will be quite a bit lower 5 years into a 15 year mortgage compared to 5 years into a 30 year mortgage.

 

My hypothesis is the "value" of an open installment loan(s) includes two components: B/L ratio in aggregate and length of payment history. The two components together contribute up to "X" points (say 30 as an example). All points can be realized by a low enough B/L. Alternatively, those points could be realized at a higher B/L if payment history is longer (perhaps some payment history points at 12 months or 24 months and a few more at 36 or 48 or 60 months).

 

Below is some info I found interesting that suggests there are more attributes that Fico considers than we typically discuss. The below was for Fico 9.

 

Fico World 2014 - 1.jpg

 

Fico World 2014 - 2.jpg

Fico 8: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850 (3/2017)
Fico 9: .......EQ 850 TU 850 EX 850 (3/2017)
Fico 4 .....:. EQ 804 TU 823 EX 830 (3/2017) EX Fico 98: 839 (3/2017)
VS 3.0:...... EQ 832 TU 832 EX 832 (3/2017)
Fico 8 BC:. EQ 887 TU 899 EX 900 (3/2017)
CBIS: ........LN Auto 940 LN Home 870 TU Auto 902 TU Home 950 (4/2017)

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