It's really not about what your AAoA looks like now, it's what it looks like in the future: current FICO score is whatever unless you need it for some reason, have to play the long game when we're talking credit.
I'm a huge proponent of the app spree methodology (though I've never spreed for more than 3 cards at a time personally, I just don't see how there's six cards anyone actually can use at a given credit strata short of the gold-plated level, and if they never used much credit previously, given the current rewards market but I digress): you take the short-term hit to AAoA true, but you get everything aging immediately and then where you are in a year or two is so much better FICO wise than if you spread the applications out.
Stupid example using 3 tradelines at the 1 and 2 year marks, add payment history and inquiries as those count too, pretty OK's are good stuff:
Traditional 6 month opening - At 1 year:
1 tradeline: 12 months AAoA
1 tradeline: 6 months AAoA
1 tradeline: 0 months AAoA
Total: 18 payment entries, 6 months AAoA, 2 scoreable inquiries, 3 inquiries on report.
Traditional 6 month opening - At 2 years:
1 tradeline: 24 months AAoA
1 tradeline: 18 months AAoA
1 tradeline: 12 months AAoA
Total: 54 payment entries, 18 months AAoA, 0 scoreable inquiries, 2 inquiries on report
The spree method - at 1 year:
3 tradelines: 12 months AAoA each
Total: 36 payment entries, 1 year AAoA, 0 scoreable inquiries, 3 inquiries on report
The spree method - at 2 years:
3 tradelines, 24 months AAoA each
Total: 72 payment entries, 2 years AAoA, 0 scoreable inquiries, 0 inquiries on report.
This doesn't factor additional benefits like tradeline seasoning, potential auto-CLI's, or SP-advantage CLI lenders vis a vis Amex and the artist formerly known as GE Capital where you may be able to improve the "quality" of the tradeline after given periods of time.
This is why I spree, but I also follow it up with with a long period of gardening aftewards typically: my credit report is usually pretty static, but when I move, I MOVE.
To be fair though, I only see the use in having 10-12 or so cards, someone that wants to have 20-30 tradelines for whatever reason and apps at a higher frequency, this gets more complicated math wise; however, in general given the time dependence of the FICO algorithm, for any given negative which both inquiry and a new tradelines are, you want to get them done and out of the way ASAP; so if you can get said card now, and it's useful in your portfolio, go do it now if you don't have a more pressing reason for staying clean (i.e. mortgage). Individual tradeline math this absolutely holds true, and it'll roll up to the AAoA calculation similarly as a result as that's completely time dependent too and is simply an aggregate tradeline calculation of the same.
In your case, and shortly now to be in my case, my target AAoA floor currently is 2 years: I don't worry about my utilization that much as I can always clean that up, but I try to target semi-known breakpoints in the algorithm and 2 years is virtually guarunteed to be one in the AAoA calculation since anything below that is rounded to 1 year. When I get up around 5 years AAoA at some point in the future (it'll happen eventually, just not anytime soon) then I'll rebalance and use that as my floor most likely, but I'm sort of thinking I'm pretty much done app wise except for a mortgage and the occasional car, only so much you can improve your credit card portfolio after 3 years in the current market if you've established it smartly in my estimation.
@user5387 wrote:Another angle here is to ignore FICO scoring issues, and consider individual lenders.
It's possible that too many inquiries, new tradelines, reduced AAoA, and so on, will close specific doors that you may wish to remain open.
The focus on these forums tends to be score driven, which seems like a mistake to me, since individual lenders often have specific requirements beyond score.
This may be especially true if your goal is to get some high-end cards with good CLs, for example US Bank Cash+ or Penfed Platinum Rewards.
No argument from me except to point out that most spree-users are still establishing credit: Cash+ or the Penfed card you mentioned are both end-game cards, which for most people who find this forum takes years. Time will heal the AAoA and inquiry dings by that point if a bunch of sloppy applications aren't made: vis a vis junk tradelines aka credit for the sake of credit.
