Is Experian's FICO Simulator accurate?

[Anonymous]

Just signed up for their Credit Monitoring today.

It shows FICO 696 no collections (just had 2 removed! That were from 2010).

Total UT as 27% (actually lower because just made a large payment should be around 24%)

Owe about $6,400/$26,500 Total available credit

It shows on the simulator that making a $6,000 payment would increase FICO to to 738.

Do you think this is true? And are these good current scores? (Used FICO 8)

Also, separate question we signed her up for TU's credit monitoring and it shows 689 Vantage with 2 hard inquiries from TU one from 7/7/15 and 10/10/14 any idea why it would do this?

[Anonymous]

No I don't think it's true.  Simulators are BS.  They take into account maybe 10 pieces of scoring criteria when we all know that credit profiles contain an infinite amount of scoring criteria relative to one another.  In essence, it's imposslbe for a simulator to be accurate with any sort of consistency.

Taking utilization down from 24% to a single digit % is not going to yield 40+ points.  There's cases of people dropping their utilization from 50-70% down to a single digit and they only receive 15-20 points.  It all varies greatly by profile, but expecting 40+ points for an approximate 20% drop in utilization is a big stretch.

Hard inquires are for applications for credit.  Sounds like she applied for credit two times and the creditors pulled TU.  They last 2 years, so the one from 10/14 is 2 months from dropping off.

[Anonymous]

Yeh I get that with the simulator.

As far as the inquiries it usually lists the company's name who did the HP but for these two it lists the company as Transunion is that a little odd or not really on her Transunion report its listed as an inquiry having an impact?

It'll usually say Chase Bank, Cap One etc. from what we see it looks like TU pulled her credit and charged her a HP for it...

[Anonymous]

I actually do know this is possible because it happened to meeeee! As always YMMV!

Scores at 25% Util

Ex: 722

TU: 706

EQ: 749

Scores at 20% Util:

Ex: 739

TU: 727

EQ: 763

Scores at 15% Util (aka now):

Ex: 759

TU: 750

EQ: 778

The only change on my report between the 25% and the 15% is an inquiry showing on Experian (the inquiry didn't affect my score at all). It is my only inquiry across the board. The tradeline is hidden so it hasn't appeared on my report.

[lhcole77]

 The simulators have been more less accurate for me, give or take a few points. 

OP:  The $6400 you owe… Is that on one card or across a few cards?  If it's across a few cards then the simulation is taking into account the fact that you are paying down multiple cards, fewer cards are reporting a balance, and your utilization is dropping. 

[sjt]

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@Anonymous wrote:

No I don't think it's true.  Simulators are BS.  They take into account maybe 10 pieces of scoring criteria when we all know that credit profiles contain an infinite amount of scoring criteria relative to one another.  In essence, it's imposslbe for a simulator to be accurate with any sort of consistency.

Taking utilization down from 24% to a single digit % is not going to yield 40+ points.  There's cases of people dropping their utilization from 50-70% down to a single digit and they only receive 15-20 points.  It all varies greatly by profile, but expecting 40+ points for an approximate 20% drop in utilization is a big stretch.

Hard inquires are for applications for credit.  Sounds like she applied for credit two times and the creditors pulled TU.  They last 2 years, so the one from 10/14 is 2 months from dropping off.

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I agree.

I mention in another post that when I used the simulator for my friend's situation (70-75% utilization on open credit cards plus charged off debt owned by the OC and reported monthly) paying off all the debt in showed only a 15 point increase, from 606 to 621.

[Anonymous]

Phantom,

Your scores went up over 5 months, so there were things changing in your profile over that time period other than your utilization drop.  Your AAoA increased, your inquiries aged, and if you had any negative information on there that aged as well.  There are other factors also, just naming some here.  My point is that more could have gone into your score gain than just the utilization drop.