Strange trend in my FICO scores

[thetalent]

Hi all, I started monitoring my scores back in April and working on paying off my revolving credit for future auto financing. At that time EQ 738 and TU 729.

EQ increased to 777 in July but dropped 37 points at once to 740 in August and another 33 to 707 in the following week. Only change between July and August was that my total revolving balances were less, no new accounts or inquiries, and no increases in individual CC balances, but EQ report now shows a 30 days late for one account that happened 3 years 10 months ago (Sept 2006) and paid on time since then. This was account was included July credit score report, but that report did show no late payments. All other accounts were always paid on time.

I understand one decrease for old late payment being found, but two within one week and for a total of 70 points when everything else (i.e., number of open accounts, number with balances, and so forth) is positive or same, wow?

During same period, TU went from 729 to currently 749 and it had always reported the old late payment for that same account. It makes me think scoring is flakey because I thought one old late payments were supposed to have a diminishing impact on score.

Now all revolving accounts are $0 so I'm anxious to see what happens to EQ when CCs update their reports. Will it be close to TU or will is stay low?

[GregB]

A 30-day late that recently appeared will have a large effect.

It does have less effect as it gets older. With my scores above 700, I think I saw more than a 30 point gain when my one 30-day late dropped off at 7 years. That is more points than most of the information on here would suggest but most people that have any 30-day lates have scores below 700, mostly way under 700.

You said no new accounts. How did a 30-day late appear on an account that was already on your reports showing no late payments?

[thetalent]

Thanks for your response. Probably a bad move by me, I trying to dispute this late payment on my TU account to see if it would be removed since it was so old. That action appears to have had unanticipated consequences because the late payment showed up on my EQ account. Bummer, but I guess it demonstrates to me how flawed the system is in that previously both services had account but their records they did not match each other since only one showed late payment. Do they not update each month, or is history not changed?

If I understand your comment then 30 point drop is likely, but I see don't get 70 points total with two separate drops for nearly four year old late payment. Seems unreasonable to me.

[AndySoCal]

Are Is the ratio of your revolving credit balances  to your credit limits higher or lower on the August credit report?

[thetalent]

Answers to your question AndySoCal, the ratio of revolving balances was the same 12% and identical $ amounts for the August and September reports. Both of which were less than the 13% when I had the higher score and before the old late payment was posted. Whenever the EQ updates its report with new closing balances the ratio should be 1% and I'm skeptical if this will have a major impact, i.e., 30 points or more, on my score. We will see and I will let y'all know.

Nevertheless, it doesn't seem like the formula is reasonable for one 30-day late payment four years ago that is newly reported to have a 70 point impact on FICO score with everything else being the same or equal. Also, it appears that the reasons given for items hurting score are inconsistent and arbitrary instead of stating true issues.