The Effect of Gardening on Scores

[atarvuzdar]

Hi all,

I've recently seen a lot of progress on my scores due to decreasing my utilization on my CC's. I have one more CC to post a lower utilization (already paid to below 10%, all 3 of my other CC reporting $0) and then I've basically played the utilization card to its fullest. While I'm excited to see the progress I'm wondering where I could possibly go from there in order to increase my scores.

My EQ is 636 and is completely up to date (SW subscriber).

My TU was 629 on 7/24 (myFICO pull) and this was pulled when my utilization was at about 70%. After last CC reports my overall util will be below 10%, and only 1 of 4 CC reporting a balance, which will also be below 10% of limit on that card. This score will probably be the best of the 3 when util is reported completely (although not 100% certain since my EX score--below--is FAKO).

My EX FAKO was 607 from a report/score I pulled from Experian yesterday.

I am concerned about doing whatever I can to raise my scores in the next year or so because my oldest account (from 1993) was closed in 2004 so it won't be too long before it falls off--in fact, it fell off my Experian report early. My next oldest accounts are two unpaid accounts which show on all 3 reports, dating back to 2004--so I stand to lose a LOT in AAoA when the oldest account falls off. I fully suspect to be rebucketed due to the great impact to AAoA.

It's not currently feasible for me to work on the two unpaid baddies due to the high $$ amount that I owe and the fact that neither wants to work with me to work out a payment plan, etc. They're set to stay on the reports until 2015 since they went south in 2008. And even when they fall off that'll lower my AAoA another significant chunk. I know that working on getting these in good standing would net me the biggest point gain but it really just doesn't seem to be possible at this time.

So, barring the possibility of making these baddies good, is gardening my next best option?

Aside from the old good account from 1993 and the two baddies, I have 3 electric company entries that are only reported on my EQ report, and on all 3 reports I have my 4 CC's:

* CC1 opened 2/2011

* CC2 opened 12/2011

* CC3 opened 12/2011

* CC4 opened 2/2012

Inquiries in the past 12 months as follows (most to age to 12 months in 12/2011):

EQ: 4

TU: 4

EX: 3

I did see score increases throughout this past year which were probably due to my accounts aging. These increases were sometimes a point here or there, but once I got an increase (on EQ) of about 7 or 9 points due to aging which, of course, thrilled me. Can I expect a steady score increase as the months tick away, or is it a slow progression... something like one or two points over a 6 month period? I don't really expect to hit 700 until those baddies go away, and I know everything with credit reports is based in the philosophy of YMMV, but does anyone have any sort of idea what a general score increase would be for someone who's just sitting around gardening for, say, a year?

Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

[llecs]

You won't be rebucketed if any those baddies are still there, though you could see a score impact. I just lost 13 this week on EQ after my oldest TL dropped.    You could get rebucketed when 100% baddie-free.

Keep gardening.

You probably won't see much more of a gain due to the new account ding. Much of that is gone. Though I bet you might see an increase when the newbies hit a year.

[Revelate]

We don't really have accurate data on tradeline seasoning (the weight an individual tradeline receives for it's age), but we're pretty confident there's bumps at the six month mark, and possibly the year mark.  After that it gets a little strange, I'd guess the bucket is somewhere around 3 years as that's a pretty standard definition between short and mid-term rates (it's what the IRS goes by on family loans as an example).

Gardening is rarely a negative though, sometimes (often even) one's FICO score is best served by just sitting on one's hands; however, it's truly hard to predict in any one individual's case.  Even in the forum population as a whole it's a challenge: we just don't have enough datapoints.

That said, dropping those negatives will be a straight positive, and probably a huge one as far as FICO is concerned.  AAoA, while it gets a huge amount of attention on this forum, really isn't that large of a factor compared to everything else.  Even if you do take a hit when those accounts come off age wise, you'll probably be close to even again as far as points for AAoA (disclaimer: I agree it's not quite this simple) in another year or two anyway.  It really seems to be close to a wash north of ~4 years from anecdotal evidence here, though it's probably a step function like so many other things in the FICO model seemingly.

End of the day, I wouldn't worry about it much.  You're in a good spot now with your tradelines, and you'll be better later; one of the hard parts about it is FICO has a tendency to flatline when you're in the middle of the various steps, and that can be fustruating... so make certain to look at the overall improvement over time, rather than a month to month track as being gospel would be my recommendation.