fico simulator not accurate

[Anonymous]

Before I had 15000+ over all balance. I put in the simulator..to see what happen if I pay 11000 off. The score jump from 692 to 742~780. I just got my report and it's 4000 less now w/ 11,000. I tried again and put 8000 one time payment..now I get only 701 ~738. Even w/ the best scenerio..I cannot get my score above 760..what the logic behind this?

[llecs]

Welcome to the forums!

Look through your reports. Make sure nothing was added or changed to that CR to impact the score. This might include new accounts, new baddies, closed accounts, paid off closed accounts, etc. Of the $15k, were they all CCs? Loans? Were any of them closed and paid off?

[Anonymous]

Nothing was changed except balance. Last report was purchased less than a month ago..so nothing changed except for the balance. All revolving account except AE & citiflex line of credit.  That line of credit is paid off down to $14.00.  That's the only thing that I can think of that might have an effect.

[llecs]

None of the CCs or the LOC were paid in full and already closed, right?

Let me take a step backwards...the report pulled from less than a month ago allows you to get access to a simulator. The first range was 742 -780. You then later tried the simulator and got 701-738. Were both of these examples using the report you pulled from less than a month ago? We're not talking about two different reports, right? If so, then ignore the questions on the changes; the report basis would have been the same.

If this is the case, and this is the only report (and not EQ vs. TU, for example), then relook at the scenarios used in those two simulations. Were the scenarios exactly the same? For example, I use "simulate best scenario" or something like that and always get a 40 point range for a score prediction based on paying down my debt 90%+ over the next 24 months. However, if I plug in my same debt and ask what would happen if I pay that same 90%+ over the next 30 days, my simulator range would be lower. Why? Because the 2 yrs of added age accompanies the first scenario resulting in a higher score. Could that be the solution?

[Anonymous]

ok..let me give u the exact situation

8/3  report  FICO692   Total balance 15135     Simulate pay 14,000 (1 time)  Bal $1135   Predict score 742-782

8/21 report FICO698   Total balance 11286     Simulate pay 11,286 (1 time)  Bal $1135   Predict score 708-748

thanks for your help

john

Message Edited by kingkong68 on 08-24-2009 09:48 AM

[Anonymous]

one CC limit was reduced from 1200 to 600. I don't think it matters.  2 accounts are paid down to 0, but not closed.  No new inquiry, new accounts..or other events.

[Anonymous]

both r equifax.

[llecs]

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kingkong68 wrote:

ok..let me give u the exact situation

8/3  report  FICO692   Total balance 15135     Simulate pay 14,000 (1 time)  Bal $1135   Predict score 742-782

8/21 report FICO698   Total balance 11286     Simulate pay 11,286 (1 time)  Bal $1135   Predict score 708-748

thanks for your help

john

Message Edited by kingkong68 on 08-24-2009 09:48 AM

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Thanks for the info.

Question: if your balances were 11,286 on the 8/21 report and you propose to pay 11,286, then wouldn't the balance read $0, vs. $1135? Paying all revolving debt to $0 and having it reflect that on your CRs will actually drop your scores. If the simulator read that all revolving balances were $0, then it would give you a lower score range.

[RobertEG]

The FICO score simulators never let you see the immedate impact of any single action on your score.

They spread it out over months, including numerous other factors, such as projected account aging, etc.

The FICO scoring algorithm is a proprietary trade secret.  If they let you model the short-term impact of one single action, it would enable accurate reverse engineering of their scoring algorithm.  That wont happen.

Take the score simulators as a guide for what to do in the long term, but not as an accurate score projection in the short term.

[Anonymous]

Personally I prefer, in most circumstances, the Score ESTIMATOR over the simulator.  (link in my sig).