My $0.02:

The majority of major retailers (esp. grocers: Wal Mart, etc) will set the tone of the policy, and smaller retailers will follow suit. I fully expect a flat 2 or 3% surcharge on all credit card purchases, and there will be some complications around debit vs. credit.

In the mid-term, CC usage will flatten out, and debit card/ATM usage will tick up (along with the associated fees and complications). Credit Card issuers won't have much incentive to reduce fees, because merchants connot charge different fees for a given card type. Small businesses slowly become a touch healthier, which is a good thing.

However, the end result for consumers is our sales tax rate has effectively increased by 1-3%. Not a happy day for the consumer.

$0.02 I hope I'm wrong