Two great New AMEX Hilton SUBs - 200K HH points

Aim_High — Fri, 07 May 2021 01:55:28 GMT

Edit to Add:

Hilton Surpass SUB was 180K HH points

earlier but I also saw a 200K point offer today!

Screen shots below.

I've been watching the American Express Hilton card SUBs and there are two new offers showing today. (I've learned that AMEX changes their offers frequently depending on when you log in and the browser history so trying different times of day and different browsers with clean cache may yield different results.)

There are three Hilton cards: No AF version, $95 AF version ("Surpass"), and $450 AF version ("Aspire") with increasing levels of rewards and perks to match the higher fees.

The no-AF version was recently running SUBs at 80K points but sometimes as high as 100K. New offer is 100K Hilton Honors points for $1K spend (in first three months) or up to 150K HH points for $5K spend (over the first six months.)

The Surpass ($95 AF) was previously running SUBs at 130K points but sometimes as high as 150K. A couple of months ago, they were also offering a $150 credit effectively paying the AF for 1.5 years in addition to the HH points. The new offer is 130K points for $2K spend (in three months) or up to 180K HH points for $10K spend (over the first six months.)

ADDED: 200K SUB also seen today for Surpass card:

The Aspire ($450 AF) seems to get less changes in the promotion and typically offers the same 150K point SUB as the Surpass but requiring $4K spend over three months. I'm not sure why some of these lenders give less attractive SUBs on the higher fee cards since you'd think those would be the cards they push more heavily!

All of these SUBS are substantial, regardless of how you calculate their valuation. I know some are critical of the points guy valuation, but HH points are worth 6/10 ccp according to tpg. But even if you value them at 5/10 ccp or 4/10 ccp, the SUBs are still highly valuable, even with the AFs included.

No-AF Hilton card:

$1K spend for 100K HH points:

(100,000 x .006 = $600. No AF. Effective three-month return 60% on $1K spend.)

(100,000 x .005 = $500. No AF. Effective three-month return 50% on $1K spend.)

(100,000 x .004 = $400. No AF. Effective three-month return 40% on $1K spend.)

$5K spend for 150K HH points:

(150,000 x .006 = $900. No AF. Effective six-month return 18% on $5K spend.)

(150,000 x .005 = $750. No AF. Effective six-month return 15% on $5K spend.)

(150,000 x .004 = $600. No AF. Effective six-month return 12% on $5K spend.)

Hilton Surpass:

$2K spend for 130K HH points:

(130,000 x .006 = $780. Less $95 AF = $685. Effective three-month return 34.25% on $2K spend.

(130,000 x .005 = $650. Less $95 AF = $555. Effective three-month return 27.75% on $2K spend.

(130,000 x .004 = $520. Less $95 AF = $425. Effective three-month return 21.25% on $2K spend.

$10K spend for 180K HH points:

(180,000 x .006 = $1,080. Less $95 AF = $985. Effective six-month return 9.85% on $10K spend.

(180,000 x .005 = $900. Less $95 AF = $805. Effective six-month return 8.05% on $10K spend.

(180,000 x .004 = $720. Less $95 AF = $625. Effective six-month return 6.25% on $10K spend.

Surpass also earns well for general-purpose spending if someone wants to accrue Hilton Honors points for hotel stays. Frequent higher spend categories of Dining out, Groceries, and Gas all earn 6x HH points. Again, depending on your valuation of HH points from a range of .004 to .006 ccp, that yield an uncapped return of anywhere from 3.6% to 3.0% to perhaps no less than 2.4%, even for the worst case scenario.

Re: Two great New AMEX Hilton SUBs - 180K HH points

simplynoir — Thu, 06 May 2021 21:58:33 GMT

My guess is AMEX had to increase the SUB offers because of the recent devaluation Hitlon did, at least that's what the comments on the DoC artlicle are saying

Re: Two great New AMEX Hilton SUBs - 180K HH points

Anonymous — Fri, 07 May 2021 00:31:50 GMT

Thank you @Aim_High for the very detailed breakdown. I need to investigate further.

Re: Two great New AMEX Hilton SUBs - 200K HH points

Golf-and-Credit — Fri, 07 May 2021 02:11:49 GMT

@Aim_High

Thanks for the research on this! I posted in the Applications section (since I'm thinking about applying) a pretty good offer for the BCP card. Love seeing updated offers!

topic Re: Two great New AMEX Hilton SUBs - 180K HH points in Credit Cards

Two great New AMEX Hilton SUBs - *200K* HH points

Re: Two great New AMEX Hilton SUBs - 180K HH points

Re: Two great New AMEX Hilton SUBs - 180K HH points

Re: Two great New AMEX Hilton SUBs - *200K* HH points

Two great New AMEX Hilton SUBs - 200K HH points

Re: Two great New AMEX Hilton SUBs - 200K HH points