topic Re: What will my FICO be? in Understanding FICO® Scoring

What will my FICO be?

nycfico — Tue, 14 Feb 2017 21:12:57 GMT

I'm entering the fourth quarter now of my rebuild, which started in early 2013. My scores are all around 650, although I think they will climb by about 20 points in the next couple of weeks as my utilization was very high last month and I'm now going to be down to about 20% when three cards report.

But I finally have gotten my IRS balance down below $25K, just sent the paperwork in today for a direct debit agreement. After three months of payments, I can apply to have the lien withdrawn, which I'm reasonably confident they will do.

So right around beginning of summer, I will have no public records, an AAOA of about 8.5 years, a credit history going back 24 years. I'll have a nice thick file, with one paid off auto loan, and two in process (one at about 40% remaining, and the other about 80% remaining).

I'll still have two chargeoffs from late 2012, and a couple of 30 days late in late 2013, but from beginning of 2014 through today, no lates at all.

Anybody venture a guess at my Fico range once the lien is removed? I'm thinking, with very low utlization, a thick file, no serious baddies in 4.5 years and a long credit history I should be able to break through the 700 mark fairly easily and if I'm lucky get up to 730 or so...any thoughts?

Re: What will my FICO be?

Anonymous — Tue, 14 Feb 2017 21:38:12 GMT

Well...I wouldn't dare to guess...but...

There is a 50+ point difference between my EX (no tax lien) and my EQ and TU (both still have tax lien) fico 8 scores. Those charge offs are still going to be anchors to your scores, I think. I hope you break 700.

I also have three 30-day lates from 2013. No other negatives though if that helps you to compare.

Re: What will my FICO be?

Anonymous — Tue, 14 Feb 2017 21:30:09 GMT

I think your assumption is reasonable. Continue to work on negative items though, even if they are 4.5 years old. Getting rid of them will only further push your score upward.

Re: What will my FICO be?

nycfico — Tue, 14 Feb 2017 21:52:16 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
Well...I wouldn't dare to guess...but...

There is a 50+ point difference between my EX (no tax lien) and my EQ and TU (both still have tax lien) fico 8 scores. Those charge offs are still going to be anchors to your scores, I think. I hope you break 700.

I also have three 30-day lates from 2013. No other negatives though if that helps you to compare.

Wow...so three 30 day lates from 2013 are in effect costing you 70 points, assuming no other issues? I'm curious though what your utilization, credit mix, length of history and inquiries look like?

Re: What will my FICO be?

nycfico — Tue, 14 Feb 2017 21:52:54 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
I think your assumption is reasonable. Continue to work on negative items though, even if they are 4.5 years old. Getting rid of them will only further push your score upward.

I haven't tried disputing in a couple of years, as it wasn't working...I suppose I can try the goodwill route...

Re: What will my FICO be?

Anonymous — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 00:56:58 GMT

You want to try GW, not disputes. Disputes are for when you feel there is inaccurate information. If the late payments you want to ask for forgiveness, not tell the creditor that they are incorrect.

Re: What will my FICO be?

MrsCHX — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 02:08:39 GMT

@nycfico wrote:
@Anonymous wrote:
Well...I wouldn't dare to guess...but...

There is a 50+ point difference between my EX (no tax lien) and my EQ and TU (both still have tax lien) fico 8 scores. Those charge offs are still going to be anchors to your scores, I think. I hope you break 700.

I also have three 30-day lates from 2013. No other negatives though if that helps you to compare.
Wow...so three 30 day lates from 2013 are in effect costing you 70 points, assuming no other issues? I'm curious though what your utilization, credit mix, length of history and inquiries look like?

People seem to assume that there's very little impact once a late is xx years old. I am being held back by 3 lates (on student loans so across several SL accounts) from 2014 and it's a major hinderance.

Re: What will my FICO be?

Anonymous — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 02:26:50 GMT

@MrsCHX wrote:
@nycfico wrote:
@Anonymous wrote:
Well...I wouldn't dare to guess...but...

There is a 50+ point difference between my EX (no tax lien) and my EQ and TU (both still have tax lien) fico 8 scores. Those charge offs are still going to be anchors to your scores, I think. I hope you break 700.

I also have three 30-day lates from 2013. No other negatives though if that helps you to compare.
Wow...so three 30 day lates from 2013 are in effect costing you 70 points, assuming no other issues? I'm curious though what your utilization, credit mix, length of history and inquiries look like?
People seem to assume that there's very little impact once a late is xx years old. I am being held back by 3 lates (on student loans so across several SL accounts) from 2014 and it's a major hinderance.

Hi MrsCHX. Are all three of your lates 30-day lates? Is it possible that one or more might be 60-day lates or worse?

When you say that you are being held back chiefly by these three lates, I assume that there are no other derogs of any kind. Charge-offs, liens, judgments, collections, etc. Is that right?

I admit to being surprised that three 30-day lates from almost three years ago could be causing you nearly 200 points of scoring damage. (Your scores being EX 643 | TU 670 | EQ 628) as of this month. It seems almost certain that something else would be going on. For example, do you have an open installment loan that is mostly paid off? If not, that will hurt you. Are most of your CC balances $0? If not, that will hurt you. Likewise you will be hurt if your total CC utilization is greater than 8.9% or if it is 0%. Age related factors might be hurting your score too.

Just observing that a lot of things besides the three old lates might be affecting your score, some of which are easy to fix.

Re: What will my FICO be?

Anonymous — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 02:57:57 GMT

@nycfico wrote:
@Anonymous wrote:
Well...I wouldn't dare to guess...but...

There is a 50+ point difference between my EX (no tax lien) and my EQ and TU (both still have tax lien) fico 8 scores. Those charge offs are still going to be anchors to your scores, I think. I hope you break 700.

I also have three 30-day lates from 2013. No other negatives though if that helps you to compare.
Wow...so three 30 day lates from 2013 are in effect costing you 70 points, assuming no other issues? I'm curious though what your utilization, credit mix, length of history and inquiries look like?

No, my point was that given all three CBs have my three 30 day lates, the only significant difference is that the EX does not have the tax lien and that tax lien seems to be costing me a good 50+ fico 8 points (assuming other factors).

My credit mix, utilization (4-5%) and length of history (12-13 yrs, IIRC) - all excellent according to fico reporting...

I think the OP will cross 700's maybe even 720's.

Re: What will my FICO be?

SouthJamaica — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 03:40:37 GMT

@nycfico wrote:
I'm entering the fourth quarter now of my rebuild, which started in early 2013. My scores are all around 650, although I think they will climb by about 20 points in the next couple of weeks as my utilization was very high last month and I'm now going to be down to about 20% when three cards report.

But I finally have gotten my IRS balance down below $25K, just sent the paperwork in today for a direct debit agreement. After three months of payments, I can apply to have the lien withdrawn, which I'm reasonably confident they will do.

So right around beginning of summer, I will have no public records, an AAOA of about 8.5 years, a credit history going back 24 years. I'll have a nice thick file, with one paid off auto loan, and two in process (one at about 40% remaining, and the other about 80% remaining).

I'll still have two chargeoffs from late 2012, and a couple of 30 days late in late 2013, but from beginning of 2014 through today, no lates at all.

Anybody venture a guess at my Fico range once the lien is removed? I'm thinking, with very low utlization, a thick file, no serious baddies in 4.5 years and a long credit history I should be able to break through the 700 mark fairly easily and if I'm lucky get up to 730 or so...any thoughts?

I don't think your agreement with the IRS, or the satisfaction of the lien, will remove the lien from your credit reports.

Re: What will my FICO be?

MrsCHX — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 04:54:55 GMT

My TU shows Gl lates but not NN. I've been basically addicted to credit reporting and scores since last February. Nope. No collections. No Leins. No judgments. Yes, 30-day lates.

My rebuild is 1 year in and all but SL and one CC is new. So my oldest account is 22 years old but AAoA has dropped to 6.7 years with my rebuild. I have 20 new accounts in 12 months. I know what's holding my scores back and yes, the "old" lates are part of that.

I'm not saying they're holding my scores back 200 points. Not sure where you got that. I'm saying people seem to think that 2-3 year old lates "don't matter much" but they do.

Re: What will my FICO be?

MrsCHX — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 04:56:18 GMT

Oh and utilization is 17%. Will be 3% at the end of the month. Still won't shoot up to 800. Lol

Re: What will my FICO be?

Anonymous — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 05:42:38 GMT

@MrsCHX wrote:
My TU shows Gl lates but not NN. I've been basically addicted to credit reporting and scores since last February. Nope. No collections. No Leins. No judgments. Yes, 30-day lates.

My rebuild is 1 year in and all but SL and one CC is new. So my oldest account is 22 years old but AAoA has dropped to 6.7 years with my rebuild. I have 20 new accounts in 12 months. I know what's holding my scores back and yes, the "old" lates are part of that.

I'm not saying they're holding my scores back 200 points. Not sure where you got that. I'm saying people seem to think that 2-3 year old lates "don't matter much" but they do.

Hello! Nice to hear back from you.

What does "GI lates" mean or "NN"?

The reason I suggested you might be thinking that your lates were causing close to 200 points of damage is that you were sure they were the major thing holding your scores back. In your followup post you say that they are part of what is holding your scores back, which is no doubt true.

Are all of your credit cards at < 29% individual utilization? How many of your 20 credit cards have a positive balance? (I am guessing that the 20 new accounts are all cards, though they may not all be.)

Do you have any open installment loans? You mention student loans but those might be closed -- I couldn't tell for sure. If you have no open installment accounts, or if you do but you do not have most of the open debt paid off, that can cause a scoring problem.

One factor that is hurting you is the percentage of your accounts that are new. In your case, almost all your accounts are new. This is a separate scoring factor from AAoA.

Your profile is an unusual one: a vast number of credit cards opened in a very short time is the biggest standout I am hearing, though there may be attendant issues related to the CC balances. It's conceivable that FICO views with some alarm that many credit cards opened in such a tiny space of time. Because your profile is unusual it may be hard to conclude a lot from it.

But congrats on your hard work thus far, and certainly you are right that you'd only benefit if those lates could get removed.

Re: What will my FICO be?

Anonymous — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 12:43:55 GMT

CGID makes some good points above with respect to so many new accounts in a short period of time. The good news is that this "problem" can work itself out in a relatively short amount of time. For my profile, "new accounts" following a spree lost their scoring impact in about 4 months. This can vary from profile to profile, but most suggest recovery is usually realized around the 6 month mark but certainly no longer than 1 year. It may sound like a while, but 1 year on the credit timeline is actually quite short when you consider more major negative items can harm you for 7-10 years. I think if you sit tight and abstain from applying for new credit your scores will be in a nice place in 6-12 months tops.

Re: What will my FICO be?

MrsCHX — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 14:19:59 GMT

Where is the 200 points coming from?! GL is Great Lakes, NN is Nelnet. I have 2 cards reporting a balance. Neither over 25%.

And again, I am not just looking at my report now. I am looking at it from where I was last year with those student loan lates and just a couple cards. Again, I know what is affecting my scores. I've seen it go up and down, monitoring weekly (actual fico 08) scores over the past 12 months.

So again I never said that I am *only* being held back by the SL lates. I am saying they DO count, even when they're 2-3 years old contrary to what popular belief seems to be.

Re: What will my FICO be?

Anonymous — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 16:05:17 GMT

Hi MrsCHX! Thanks again for your thoughts

200 points is how many points FICO is deducting from your score, since your scores are a bit below 650. (One is a bit higher.). The impression you gave at first was that the three lates were the major cause of your scoring problem.

I do understand better now. In your last post you emphasize that you know what is affecting your scores. Hearing possible alternative explanations from me may well be frustrating for you (since you already know) and I apologize and will back away from doing that.

Everyone certainly does agree with you that three 30-day lates will affect a person's score, even when they are a few years old. We agree that they do count. The puzzle is always trying to assess whether for most profiles (perhaps not yours) they might have a substantially lower impact over time.

Thanks for your contribution to that ongoing question. I certainly hear you.

Re: What will my FICO be?

nycfico — Wed, 15 Feb 2017 16:33:33 GMT

@MrsCHX wrote:
Where is the 200 points coming from?! GL is Great Lakes, NN is Nelnet. I have 2 cards reporting a balance. Neither over 25%.

And again, I am not just looking at my report now. I am looking at it from where I was last year with those student loan lates and just a couple cards. Again, I know what is affecting my scores. I've seen it go up and down, monitoring weekly (actual fico 08) scores over the past 12 months.

So again I never said that I am *only* being held back by the SL lates. I am saying they DO count, even when they're 2-3 years old contrary to what popular belief seems to be.

30 day lates may matter, but ones that are 2 or 3 years old wouldn't be causing an otherwise perfect credit situation to be at 650.

To give a sense of perspective, my updated Experian score came in today. Even with two IRS tax liens filed just under three years ago (March of 2014), two charge offs from 2012, a thirty day late in 2013, and current utlization at about 30%, my Exp score right now is 685...

The liens and chargeoffs are much greater issues than a handful of 30 days late from years back and still my score is 685...

Re: What will my FICO be?

nycfico — Sun, 26 Feb 2017 16:20:47 GMT

I'm actually surprised that I've been able to break through the 700 mark on Experian (701 EX, 678 EQ, 694 TU), just by bringing my utliization down below 30%.

I still have two charge offs from 2012 and two IRS tax liens from 2014 and yet my scores are back into the decent range, finally. I guess this is evidence of the power of time as thee things, ugly as they are, age. My direct debit installment begins end of March...so after three payments ,which will bring me to end of May, I will be able to apply for lien withdrawal...it will be really interesting at that point to see what my scores are with no liens and two chargeoffs from 4.5 to 5 years ago...

Re: What will my FICO be?

Anonymous — Sun, 26 Feb 2017 20:23:22 GMT

@MrsCHX wrote:
@nycfico wrote:
@Anonymous wrote:
Well...I wouldn't dare to guess...but...

There is a 50+ point difference between my EX (no tax lien) and my EQ and TU (both still have tax lien) fico 8 scores. Those charge offs are still going to be anchors to your scores, I think. I hope you break 700.

I also have three 30-day lates from 2013. No other negatives though if that helps you to compare.
Wow...so three 30 day lates from 2013 are in effect costing you 70 points, assuming no other issues? I'm curious though what your utilization, credit mix, length of history and inquiries look like?
People seem to assume that there's very little impact once a late is xx years old. I am being held back by 3 lates (on student loans so across several SL accounts) from 2014 and it's a major hinderance.

Old baddies have a bad effect on your score as long as they are there. I have 3 charge offs on my credit file that age off under FCRA within the next 90 days, That means they are all over 7 YEARS old. My score is in the (very) low 600's.

Re: What will my FICO be?

nycfico — Sun, 26 Feb 2017 22:24:56 GMT

I have to think you have other reasons why your score is in the very low 600's.

I have two charge offs more recent than yours (not even 5 years old yet) and two IRS tax liens filed in march of 2014 and yet my scores are between 684 and 701.