topic Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed. in Understanding FICO® Scoring

Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

sjt — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 00:28:42 GMT

Woke up this morning and saw that my Experian FICO8 Score went up 34 points from 753 to 787. I looked at my reports and found that a 30 day late from March 2012 fell off my report.

I thought a 30 day late impacts your score for up to two years so why did my score increase so much after the 30 day late fell off?

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Brooklyn2018 — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 01:50:21 GMT

Congrats!!

I would suspect...It is still considered a derog(though minor) and may have aged some but, a derog, nonetheless. Other things could have helped, like crossing AoYA, AAoA, UTL thresholds?? Again, just my suspicion.

Congrats, BTW!!!👍

😊

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Thomas_Thumb — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 03:29:09 GMT

@sjt wrote:
Woke up this morning and saw that my Experian FICO8 Score went up 34 points from 753 to 787. I looked at my reports and found that a 30 day late from March 2012 fell off my report.

I thought a 30 day late impacts your score for up to two years so why did my score increase so much after the 30 day late fell off?

My understanding is a 30 day late will count against you for the full 7 years. I don't recall ever seeing anyone achieve an 850 score with a late on file even if everything else in a file is optimized. Referring to the below from ABCD, I interpret the graph as showing convergence of 60 day late score penalty with 30 days at 2 years and then both following the same curve there after.

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Anonymous — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 04:14:15 GMT

@sjt wrote:

I thought a 30 day late impacts your score for up to two years so why did my score increase so much after the 30 day late fell off?

A 30 day late carries most of its weight during the first 2 years and is less impactful after that. Were you watching your scores back when you took on the 30 day late originally? Depending on your file, that late payment reporting may have costed you 60, maybe 100+ points at the time. That being said, 34 points is considerably less than that. If that 30 day was a 90 day late of the same age, you'd stand to see a score increase more to the tune of 70-80 points since well-aged majors carry much more weight than well-aged minors.

I'm assuming that this 30 day late payment was your only negative item present?

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

sjt — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 13:39:19 GMT

@Brooklyn2018 wrote:
Congrats!!

I would suspect...It is still considered a derog(though minor) and may have aged some but, a derog, nonetheless. Other things could have helped, like crossing AoYA, AAoA, UTL thresholds?? Again, just my suspicion.

Congrats, BTW!!!👍

😊

Nothing changed on my CR other then the 30 day late drop.

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

sjt — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 13:54:54 GMT

Thanks for posting the graph TT!

So with a 30 day late you can regain about 60 of the 100 points over 24 months, the remaining 40 will remain until the 30 day late falls off.

Why does it stop at the 24 mon mark and the 60 and 90 day lates continue to 48 months?

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

sjt — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 14:01:14 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
@sjt wrote:

I thought a 30 day late impacts your score for up to two years so why did my score increase so much after the 30 day late fell off?

A 30 day late carries most of its weight during the first 2 years and is less impactful after that. Were you watching your scores back when you took on the 30 day late originally? Depending on your file, that late payment reporting may have costed you 60, maybe 100+ points at the time. That being said, 34 points is considerably less than that. If that 30 day was a 90 day late of the same age, you'd stand to see a score increase more to the tune of 70-80 points since well-aged majors carry much more weight than well-aged minors.

I'm assuming that this 30 day late payment was your only negative item present?

I wasnt really reviewing my reports back when the late occured. I propably did get a 100 point hit and gained around 60 points over 24 months.

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Anonymous — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 15:11:31 GMT

@sjt wrote:
Thanks for posting the graph TT!

So with a 30 day late you can regain about 60 of the 100 points over 24 months, the remaining 40 will remain until the 30 day late falls off.

Why does it stop at the 24 mon mark and the 60 and 90 day lates continue to 48 months?

Because 60 and 90 day lates are much much more derogatory in terms of the calculated risk of complete default.

FICO's scoring is based strictly on the likelihood of a person at any given moment to default on their debt responsibilities in the future. It does not analyze when a default might happen, it only estimates if one is likely.

If someone is 30 days late, they are likely to default in the next 2 years, but if they don't default, the likelihood drops massively.

On the other hand, if someone is 60 days late, historical trends say they are likely to default in the next 4 years.

FICO doesn't tell you if you're a good borrower, it tells banks if you are likely a risky borrower in the next 7 years.

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Anonymous — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 15:30:04 GMT

@sjt wrote:

So with a 30 day late you can regain about 60 of the 100 points over 24 months, the remaining 40 will remain until the 30 day late falls off.

Keep in mind it's very profile-specific. The numbers you referenced above may be about right on your profile, but could be way different for someone else. And, that's when talking only 1 lone 30 day late. Could be 75 points initially, 100, even 120. When it falls off? Maybe only 20, maybe up to 50. When you're talking multiples, though, all bets are off. It's possible if someone already has a recent negative item that the addition of another 30 day late could have little to no impact on their score. Similarly, with the presence of another negative item the dropping off of a 30 day late around 7 years could have little to no impact on score as well. Of course, there's every example in between these two book ends as well.

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Anonymous — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 15:31:52 GMT

^^^Yep what BBS says is correct. If all you have is ONE 30 day late and no other derogatories, then my graph is fairly accurate. If you have multiple lates, or other derogatories, then you aren't going to get back all those points.

My chart assumes ONE account is late by that much time, with no other derogatories.

FICO's penalty is based on whatever is the worst (typically) in a category. So having 3 accounts 90 days late with 1 account 30 days late means you may get 0 points for dropping the 30 day lates from your history.

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Anonymous — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 15:45:57 GMT

ABCD, when you made that graph did you obtain a ton of reported data points from members, or how did you go about it? I'm assuming that you sort of went with a best-fit graph based on the average of what you were provided with?

I ask because I'm sure there's quite a range between the highest reported numbers and the lowest, no doubt very profile-based. For example, someone with a thin/young file (say, 2 years history and 2 accounts total) is likely to see a different overall impact from the introduction of a 30 day late than someone with a thick/aged (say, 20 years history and 20 accounts total). What are your thoughts from the research you've done?

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Anonymous — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 18:07:49 GMT

It's a TON of data from a ton of individuals -- some folks who send me their entire 3B every month PLUS a screen shot of all alerts.

It's always surprising to see people with just ONE derogatory account and be in the process of capturing the very month where it falls off or gets deleted and seeing the score increase. The actual data set is quite a bit dirtier, but the plot line seems to fit respectably across most scorecards.

I definitely would agree that someone with a younger/older score card is going to see a very different penalty for a late, for sure. Same is true with individual high utilitization it seems (some folks can have one card with 95% utilization with almost no penalty, others can get a huge penalty).

Like all things FICO, there's no specific guaranteed number that you'll gain for removing a derogatory, but also like FICO, there's usually a pretty consistent range of numbers that work. Back when everyone was doing the SSL, the boosts were all over the place -- as little as 12, as many as 54 (or 45?), but most people were in the 25-30 average range.

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Anonymous — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 18:21:46 GMT

Right on, I agree.

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Anonymous — Tue, 18 Dec 2018 22:56:22 GMT

Hello ABCD2199,

Thanks for the graph -- that is very interesting.

Is there anyway I could guesstimate my situation.

I have a 30 day -- May 2013, 60 day -- June 2013 -- 30 day March 2014.

All my scores are above 700 now -- 711, 722, 749

Any comments are welcomed.

Thanks

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Anonymous — Wed, 19 Dec 2018 02:40:01 GMT

@@@Anonymous wrote:
Is there anyway I could guesstimate my situation.

What exactly are you looking to guesstimate, the dropping off of the first 30-day late payment and its impact on score? If so, I would say the impact would be 0 points, as you would still have late payment present that are more recent.

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Anonymous — Wed, 19 Dec 2018 04:42:18 GMT

BrutalBodyShots,

Thank you.

I guess i would be curious about what your guess would be about the overall effect -- by all three late payments.

And, also, perhaps what change I might see after the first two (which are in back to back months) drop off.

Thanks

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

sjt — Wed, 19 Dec 2018 16:53:36 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
BrutalBodyShots,

Thank you.

I guess i would be curious about what your guess would be about the overall effect -- by all three late payments.

And, also, perhaps what change I might see after the first two (which are in back to back months) drop off.

Thanks

Ill chime in with my experience. I had (2) 30 day lates and (1) 60 day late. The first one had a zero effect, the tradeline was deleted on the 30/60 day late and I lost points, the final 30 day late I gained 34 points. If the tradeline remained on my report and the 30/60 was removed I propably would have gained 10 points.

Can you give us details on the lates. Are those lates from the same creditor or different ones? Are the creditors credit cards, auto, or mortgage?

Re: Experian score up 34 points after 30 day late removed.

Anonymous — Wed, 19 Dec 2018 17:53:43 GMT

Losing one 30 day late but keeping any more won’t really help your score. FICO doesn’t work that way. The only thing they care about is “what is the most recent 30 day late?” for scoring purposes, but before they apply any point subtraction the first question is “what is the most recent 60 day late?” and so on. The existence of a 60 day late means the 30 day doesn’t hurt. The existence of multiple 30 day lates means only the most recent one is scored.

I lucked out during my rehab because I got 150 day lates goodwill removed and kept the old trade line so I got the see score changes nicely.