topic Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8? in Understanding FICO® Scoring

Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

Anonymous — Fri, 25 Jan 2019 05:14:46 GMT

I know someone that has a 572 EX FICO 8 score and their stats are as follows:

21 total accounts, 15 open/6 closed. Many of the open ones are student loans.

AoOA = 12 years, 5 months

AAoA = 7 years, 6 months

AoYA = 1 year, 1 month

So, thick/aged wise, their file is in a good approaching great place. Then we get on to the 2/3 of the FICO pie that matters most:

This person has 6 dirty accounts, 3 of which in January (this month) reported 90-120 days late... so basically majors that aren't aged at all.

Their overall utilization sits at 111% due to accounts being over their limits. They also have balances on 2 revolving accounts that the creditors have closed on them, thus making them maxed out accounts by default.

Given the information above, a 572 score to me seems darn high, all things considered. No doubt the age of accounts factors are helping a lot here, but to me those factors should more or less go out the window when you're talking someone at > 100% utilization with major negatives happening as we speak. I can't really think of a how this person could really be any higher of risk than they already are, but 572 to me feels high for this profile.

Just curious as to any thoughts on this. I guess thick/aged does matter quite a bit when considering this profile, as on a thin/young file I'd assume you'd see scores just about as bad as you could get.

Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

Revelate — Fri, 25 Jan 2019 07:18:17 GMT

They are already deep subprime, with 12 years of historical information.

Why do you think they should be even further below? Thin file with a collection and tax lien and a 60D late is not that much further underneath that FWIW.

Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

Anonymous — Fri, 25 Jan 2019 15:17:19 GMT

Nothing *in* collections is a big deal. One collection would probably drop them 60- 80 points further.

Being 90+ days late is very bad, but there's potentially worse beyond that and it's sort of good that the score reflects that there's still further to drop.

Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

Anonymous — Fri, 25 Jan 2019 16:39:16 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
Nothing *in* collections is a big deal. One collection would probably drop them 60- 80 points further.

I always thought that a major was a major, in that a 90/120 day late, collection or CO were all viewed/scored the same way.

Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

Anonymous — Fri, 25 Jan 2019 16:43:19 GMT

@Revelate wrote:

Why do you think they should be even further below?

Because this profile to me seems like just about a risky as you can get. 90-120 day lates across multiple accounts all happening now, utilization on individual cards all > 95% and aggregate at 111% or so (5-figure debt, BTW, not that dollars necessarily matter). It would just seem to me that if the bottom end score is in the low-mid 300's, this person should be maybe in the 400's. I don't know, it's just a feeling. I suppose when you're talking scores in that range, it doesn't really matter? Maybe a 450 verses a 550 in terms of risk/lending is somewhat irrelevant, similar to the way a 750 and 850 are in many ways viewed similarly?

Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

Revelate — Fri, 25 Jan 2019 19:33:42 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
@Anonymous wrote:
Nothing *in* collections is a big deal. One collection would probably drop them 60- 80 points further.

I always thought that a major was a major, in that a 90/120 day late, collection or CO were all viewed/scored the same way.

There's basically a difference between major in payment history, and then anything that counts on the record side which collections along with tax liens, BK's, and judgements seem to fall into.

Not sure why the difference and it may be moot from a scorecard perspective (there aren't that many dirty scorecards, though record + deliquency of any level might be one of the four on FICO 8, or maybe it's just a refactor of the collection/lien/etc scorecard) but there's some patterns in there which really aren't well teased out or even well estimated frankly. Agreed with your point that it's hard to get worse than a tanking credit file which is what is happening from your description, but it's also why a FICO score is never ever the sole component from an underwriting perspective.

Actually if you look back at the anecdotal reports it's been shown you can get above 790 with an old late of various different degress, but nobody reaches that height with a collection or one of the worse records under FICO 8 which strongly correlates with the statement they're different scorecards.

They might not be different on FICO 04 and earlier, there were only 2 negative scorecards there IIRC which probably correspond to recent derog vs. not recent derog or similar.

Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

Thomas_Thumb — Sat, 26 Jan 2019 15:49:19 GMT

For those that want to see what's needed to drop below 400, CGID started a thread 2.5 years back titled something like "scoring a perfect Fico 300". You should be able to find it through a search. @jamie123 described his profile when he bottomed out at 350. Ok, found it - link pasted below.

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/Scoring-a-perfect-300/m-p/4142829#M96948

Below is a link to a table on various published and real world score ranges for a variety of credit related scoring models.

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/The-many-flavors-of-FICO-Editions-versions-and-variations/m-p/4222362#M98991

Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

NRB525 — Sat, 26 Jan 2019 03:50:05 GMT

First, closed accounts do not immediately report as maxed. What are the amounts owed on each, and the listed credit line when closed? The accounts are a debt, but they are separate from open accounts in overall utilization.

Does that change the calculations of overall utilization?

Second, with a long history of payments, that thickness of the age of the file prevents it from dropping terribly. That example at 350? Open the accounts, draw them fully and do not pay. You have to act fast in the full default to really drive down score. That is not the situation here. Paying on time for years gives you some score cred.

Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

Anonymous — Sat, 26 Jan 2019 09:13:05 GMT

@NRB525 wrote:
First, closed accounts do not immediately report as maxed. What are the amounts owed on each, and the listed credit line when closed? The accounts are a debt, but they are separate from open accounts in overall utilization.

The 2 closed accounts have a $4600 balance on a $4000 limit and a $3300 balance on a $3000 limit. All of the remaining open revolvers have similar balances with some just under their limit and the others just over. The worst is a $1600 balance against a $1200 limit for something like 135% utilization. The 2 closed accounts are both 120 days late currently and both are with Chase. I don't know too much about how Chase handles such accounts, but I'd think by 180 days or so they'd likely get sent to collections?

Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

NRB525 — Sat, 26 Jan 2019 14:39:32 GMT

Well for what it’s worth, when Chase closed my account with a balance, they left the limit at something like $16k and stopped balance chasing me on that account. But I never missed a payment on any account, so no bank was able to change terms on me. The APR that I had on each account ranged from fairly good to very good so that was a motivation to stay within terms.

It sounds like our friend has ceased paying? What is the list of balances and student loan balances?

Does our friend have a plan for next steps?

Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

Anonymous — Sun, 27 Jan 2019 05:20:53 GMT

Ceased paying yes, plan for next steps no. I'm not really sure about the student loans, just that there are probably 15 or so on their CR for a total of something like $130k. I think only one or two of them requires a monthly payment at this time, but I don't ask any questions at this point. Clearly their view of credit and mine aren't aligned, so I leave the subject alone.

Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

newmomnewme — Mon, 28 Jan 2019 18:30:23 GMT

Wait just a minute....are you talking about me?? lol.

Just kidding, I have a similar score with 2 newer paid collections and a 30-day late that is 5 months old.

Re: Thick/aged/filthy/high UT = 572 EX FICO8?

Anonymous — Wed, 30 Jan 2019 01:20:18 GMT

It may be their score but really scores are just a snapshot, right? Luckily for them, if those are federal loans, if they move quickly they can't change the result.
If those dates are from January payments on the student loans they could likely get a retroactive forbearance. That would wipe those out and leave the other 3. Even just a 90 day late and a high student loan utilization, around a 750 would still be possible, though. I'm not sure about the effect of collections.
The credit card utilization is a major factor but they've decided to let that go so nothing that can be done about that....
If the student loans are federal they likely have payments far higher than needed. Many people are unaware of Income-driven repayment plans. This would put all of their loans in repayment, for a reduced monthly bill. This would possibly leave money to throw at the credit cards.
It's a shame to see what could possibly be a great file be reduced to such a low score. But I guess it could be a lot (?) worse if they didn't have better framework. I know my student loans saved me after I when I was at my lowest, all cards maxed out. Hoping it will do the same for them later.