topic Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores in Understanding FICO® Scoring

AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Anonymous — Thu, 02 May 2019 01:34:11 GMT

AoYA finally reached 24 months today, so I did a 28 score pull.

None of my 28 scores increased even a single point.

My 28 score pull last month was with all of my accounts with balances and I kept that a constant for the 28 score pull this month as to eliminate any top end buffer.

I'm pretty surprised actually. I know that negative reason codes exist related to AoYA on some scoring models (not sure which exactly) even with AoYA > 24 months and perhaps even > 36 months. I figured that with 12 months being a very well-documented threshold that 24 months would "count" for something at least on some scoring model, but it seems that is not the case.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

SouthJamaica — Thu, 02 May 2019 02:50:22 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
AoYA finally reached 24 months today, so I did a 28 score pull.

None of my 28 scores increased even a single point.

My 28 score pull last month was with all of my accounts with balances and I kept that a constant for the 28 score pull this month as to eliminate any top end buffer.

I'm pretty surprised actually. I know that negative reason codes exist related to AoYA on some scoring models (not sure which exactly) even with AoYA > 24 months and perhaps even > 36 months. I figured that with 12 months being a very well-documented threshold that 24 months would "count" for something at least on some scoring model, but it seems that is not the case.

1. Aren't your scores near perfect?

2. If so, isn't your profile a less than ideal testing ground for something like this? Wouldn't it be more meaningful to see what happens in a profile that has room for improvement?

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Anonymous — Thu, 02 May 2019 04:24:07 GMT

No. As I stated in the original post, I brought my profile to all accounts with balances in an effort to lower my scores, eliminating any top end buffer factor. Some of them like EQ FICO 5 came down to 770 or so and I was able to take many of my scores like classic 8, BCE 8 etc. down decent chunks.

With my only maxed out score being EX FICO 8 (bulletproof to number of accounts with balances) that left the opportunity for 27 other scores to see a gain from AoYA reaching 24 months if that were indeed a threshold.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

rbentley — Thu, 02 May 2019 16:13:06 GMT

I always assumed that the only AoYA threshold was 12 months, although there are multiple thresholds for AAoA. Thank you BBS for the confirmation. I think reason codes show up without any meaningful impact on scores. It is as though they have to say something so they just pull something out of a hat.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Anonymous — Thu, 02 May 2019 16:33:33 GMT

Yes I definitely think that was a worthy contribution BBS. However I do offer an observation. In aged account like yours, I can understand why there’s no benefit at 24 months. That may not necessarily be true in a non-aged scorecard. Who knows it may be different in a thin scorecard as well.

But there’s something even more telling about this to me. This indicates you did not shift scorecards from a new account scorecard to a no new account scorecard.

Am I incorrect? Because if you went from the new account scorecard to the no new account scorecard there should’ve been a shift somewhere right? If so, does that mean the scorecard shift happens at 12 months and that is the cause of the score improvement?

I may be way off here, but it’s still early. Please guide me, teach me, if this is incorrect or impossible.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Revelate — Thu, 02 May 2019 17:51:50 GMT

AFAIK to roughly summarize:

Derogatory scorecards: no AOYA metric at all at least for FICO 8 and below: I might be able to check on TU whenever my 60D stops counting as recent for FICO 9.

Top 8 on FICO 8: 1 year and I think that might be it. Every CMS other than the TU service on myFICO totally suck for FICO 8 classic reason codes... I don’t understand why they are all so awful in not providing the full list.

Top 8 on earlier models, I have seen the new accounts reason code after a year and TT has seen it at something like 4.5 years on EQ FICO 5 I believe it was.

The more details we get the more I somewhat think that scorecard assignment based on age might be multiple factors rather than just A/B switching. Like AAOA between values X and Y, and AOOA between X’ and Y’ and maybe throw in youngest too though I suspect the new accounts may be a binary one.

We just don’t really know on exact scorecard assignment and I can’t really see how to explicitly test for them either.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Anonymous — Thu, 02 May 2019 22:31:52 GMT

Well from my understanding we highly believe based on good data that whether or not there are new accounts is a scorecard segmentation factor for clean scorecards. Correct? (as you said all bets are off with derogatory, and it would be great if you tested that for the derogatory score cards.)

If that is true, whenever that shift happens from new account to no new account scorecard on classic eight, there will necessarily have to be a score change maybe down, instead of up, but there will have to be some sort of change, right? So my thought is AoYA turning 12 months and giving that big point gain could in fact be a scorecard shift?

Maybe I’m way way off here, I’m still new to all of this. As a matter of fact, I’d love to know what both you and TT can teach me about this! ( and anyone else too!)

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Anonymous — Fri, 03 May 2019 02:01:44 GMT

@Revelate wrote:

Top 8 on earlier models, I have seen the new accounts reason code after a year and TT has seen it at something like 4.5 years on EQ FICO 5 I believe it was.

Yeah, that's what I find puzzling. I know TT mentioned seeing those reason codes with AoYA being > 2 years, perhaps all the way up to 5 years or so on some models. I'm pretty sure that TT and I would fall into the same scorecard with thick/aged/clean files, but I'm no expert on that. That being said, I would think there would have been some sort of minor shift somewhere (perhaps the older models) once hitting 2 years if there is a shift at 1 year and then another at some later point, say 4 or 5 years.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Thomas_Thumb — Fri, 03 May 2019 02:41:05 GMT

A couple points:

1) Recent account openings is a scorecard factor - BUT IT ONLY COMES IN PLAY ON CLEAN SCORECARDS . It is a factor with Fico 8 and Fico 04/Fico 98 as well. Almost certainly is for Fico 9 as the primary difference with Fico 9 is a 13th scorecard associated with high revolving credit utilization.

2) My "recent credit" negative reason code went away at exactly 5 years AoYA. It was showing up on EQ Auto Fico 04. When I reached 5 years AoYA and the code dropped off, my EQ Auto Fico 04 (score 5) increased from 827 => 831. Not sure that the 5 years relates to Fico 04 in general. It may be specific to the Fico 04 Auto industry adjuster scorecard. [BB credit card account opened 9/2011] - reason code present every pull up through 8/2016. Code not present from 10/2016 onward - My last 3B last pull was 4/2018.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Anonymous — Fri, 03 May 2019 02:20:24 GMT

Hi TT.

So, EQ Auto Score 5, eh? Do you think that if there's a threshold then at 1 year and also 5 years that there may be one at the mid-point of 3 years and then nothing at 2 (that I reached) and 4?

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Revelate — Fri, 03 May 2019 02:33:28 GMT

TT’s marketing data pictures confirms my own testing from when I had a tax lien: I could beat my credit report like a rented mule and unless I went over a AAOA boundary nothing happened.

This also was confirmed during my mortgage process, where I ticked over one year and didn’t move at all, and also on TU FICO 4 where I was so optimized except for being in the dirty scorecards that I went down to three reason codes instead of 4: none of them were new accounts.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Anonymous — Fri, 03 May 2019 10:53:43 GMT

To be honest, AAOA is a very small factor overall. And on a non-aged/thin/new account scorecard, AAoA grants points at 3 and 6 month AoYA, right? Who knows maybe even on the thick one, but apparently not on the aged ones. My guess is the change in scorecards is what causes the big shift at 12 months.

The aged scorecards seem to have their own set of thresholds for AAOA at various older thresholds, sometimes at six-month intervals, e.g., 60, 66, 72, 78 months.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Thomas_Thumb — Sat, 04 May 2019 00:45:24 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
To be honest, AAOA is a very small factor overall. And on a non-aged/thin/new account scorecard, AAoA grants points at 3 and 6 month AoYA, right? Who knows maybe even on the thick one, but apparently not on the aged ones. My guess is the change in scorecards is what causes the big shift at 12 months.

The aged scorecards seem to have their own set of thresholds for AAOA at various older thresholds, sometimes at six-month intervals, e.g., 60, 66, 72, 78 months.

Not sure what post you are responding to in the above.

In a prior post I mentioned experiencing a 4 point increase on Auto EQ Fico 04 when AoYA crossed 60 months (5 years). My AAoA at the time was 17 years 3 months and AoOA was AoOA 32 years 5 months.

AAoA metrics are independent of AoYA metrics. So the "AAoA grants points at 3 and 6 months AoYA" is a bit confusing. There may be 3 and 6 months milestones for AoYA which may or may not affect score depending on file age but, that's not well documented.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Thomas_Thumb — Sat, 04 May 2019 01:25:44 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
Hi TT.

So, EQ Auto Score 5, eh? Do you think that if there's a threshold then at 1 year and also 5 years that there may be one at the mid-point of 3 years and then nothing at 2 (that I reached) and 4?

Perhaps 1 year and 5 years - not sure about anything in between for AoYA. The big boost at 12 months may include impact of a scorecard reassignment - the scorecard reassignment is only in play on clean scorecards.

Note: I only had the: "Opened a new account relative recently" reason code on EQ Auto Fico 04 (score 5). It did not show up on Classic EQ Fico 04 or BCE EQ Fico 04 - so the extended "relatively recently" might be specific to the Auto industry enhanced scorecard.

A couple examples are pasted below.

...

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Anonymous — Sat, 04 May 2019 03:17:53 GMT

Hey TT, thank you for taking the time to respond. Yes my language is very sloppy there. I apologize and I appreciate the fact that all of you sharpen me. The 3 and 6 month milestones that I’m referring to for AoYA may be limited to the young/thin/new account scorecard and is part of what I learned from some of Cassie’s research, if I’m not mistaken. I don’t want to misspeak, But it seems there are thresholds there in certain situations.

I was not referring to a post In specific, TT. Just speaking in general and delighted to hear the comments of you and the other more experienced members.

Thank you for instructing me on the metrics and what I meant to say was AoYA appears to grant some points at those thresholds on Certain scorecards. And I’m glad to see you also believe the 12 month point change could be a scorecard reassignment.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Anonymous — Sat, 04 May 2019 14:09:06 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
The 3 and 6 month milestones that I’m referring to for AoYA may be limited to the young/thin/new account scorecard and is part of what I learned from some of Cassie’s research, if I’m not mistaken. I don’t want to misspeak, But it seems there are thresholds there in certain situations.

That 3 month AoYA threshold is definitely there, and not just for people new to credit (using AoOA < 2yrs). I can confidently say it's due to AoYA because everyone reporting gains of around 10pts or more had wildly different AAoA and AoOA.

There are plenty of observations of the same sort of gains going back years on these forums which can be read by pasting this line into Google search:

site:ficoforums.myfico.com 3 aoya month

24 out of 28 FICO scores up anywhere from +8 to +25 points at 3mo AoYA (Table)

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Revelate — Sat, 04 May 2019 19:06:35 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
@Anonymous wrote:
The 3 and 6 month milestones that I’m referring to for AoYA may be limited to the young/thin/new account scorecard and is part of what I learned from some of Cassie’s research, if I’m not mistaken. I don’t want to misspeak, But it seems there are thresholds there in certain situations.
That 3 month AoYA threshold is definitely there, and not just for people new to credit (using AoOA < 2yrs). I can confidently say it's due to AoYA because everyone reporting gains of around 10pts or more had wildly different AAoA and AoOA.

There are plenty of observations of the same sort of gains going back years on these forums which can be read by pasting this line into Google search:
site:ficoforums.myfico.com 3 aoya month

24 out of 28 FICO scores up anywhere from +8 to +25 points at 3mo AoYA (Table)

Quite possibly @Anonymous when we're talking FICO 8 at least.

I took a -26 point hit when my Citi DC just reported today; that was conflated with a AAOA 5 year line (went from 60 months to 58 months), but that only accounted for 3 points when I went above that line on 5/1. It is a line under EX FICO 8 AU but I don't have good reason code resolution on the Classic score.

Interestingly AOYA of 3 months is not a line in EX FICO 2, that only shifted for AAOA, but it might explain the additional lost 23 points on EX FICO 8... it might also be a pattern of new accounts too, this is basically what I've done in the past 2 years as far as account openings, but the Amex Marriot has not reported yet:

Tradeline	Open Date	Months since opening
Chase Amazon	1/1/17	28
USBank Auto	11/1/18	6
First Tech Loan	12/1/18	5
Marriot
Citi DC	4/1/19	1

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Anonymous — Sat, 04 May 2019 20:15:15 GMT

@Revelate wrote:
Interestingly AOYA of 3 months is not a line in EX FICO 2, that only shifted for AAOA, but it might explain the additional lost 23 points on EX FICO 8...

The only scores that didn't change for my scorecard at AoYA 3mo were EX FICO 2, EX AUTO 2, EX Bankcard 2, and EX FICO 3.

My EQ FICO 5, which is my median mortgage score, went up +17pts. Everything at TU and EQ went up.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Revelate — Sat, 04 May 2019 21:24:31 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
@Revelate wrote:
Interestingly AOYA of 3 months is not a line in EX FICO 2, that only shifted for AAOA, but it might explain the additional lost 23 points on EX FICO 8...
The only scores that didn't change for my scorecard at AoYA 3mo were EX FICO 2, EX AUTO 2, EX Bankcard 2, and EX FICO 3.

My EQ FICO 5, which is my median mortgage score, went up +17pts. Everything at TU and EQ went up.

Neat, I'll get a EQ FICO 5 datapoint from DCU end of the month roughly, easy enough to keep my reported balances the same and EQ hadn't ticked over the 5y AAOA boundary yet either so should be a good datapoint.

Re: AoYA hits 24 mo, no increase on 28 scores

Anonymous — Sun, 05 May 2019 04:28:38 GMT

I personally didn't notice any major FICO 8 score gains when my AoYA reached 3 months nearly 2 years ago. I saw +5 on EX and +1 on EQ, my 2 clean bureaus at the time and +4 on TU which was dirty at the time. Those scores were pulled on the 8th of the month, exactly 1 week after my AoYA reached 3 months. My file was very stable at the time overall, but I don't have exact balance info on all of my revolvers recorded. There's a chance that slight balances changes could have impacted those score changes, but it's not very likely IMO. Anyway, the gains to me for AoYA seemed minimal on both a clean and dirty file.