topic Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses? in Understanding FICO® Scoring

New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

spiritcraft1 — Thu, 24 Oct 2019 13:59:19 GMT

DW has a new NFCU Flagship that should report tomorrow. Curious what some FICO experts this will happen to our scores. The last $15k card to report 8 months ago gave us each 15 points or so due to UTL factoring against Collection or CO dept. All of our derogs are 5-6 years old and we have perfect payment history since late 2015.

New Card: CL: $15k - $0 Balance

EX FICO 08 = 651

6 Open Revolvers with $15 Balance out of $26,600 total CL's (One is $5k AU)

Two Collections: Total $9,700

Two CO's: Total $2.000

AAoA: 6 years

EX FICO 08 = 639

5 Open Revolvers with $25 Balance out of $30,00 total CL's (one is $15k AU)

2 Collections: Total $18,000

7 CO's: Total $32,300

AAoA: 8 years

Any guesses? Up, Down or stay the same?

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

ldkcivilservant — Thu, 24 Oct 2019 14:30:01 GMT

Down, due to resetting AoYA and lowering AAoA.

I don't see further padding the Util is going to make that much of a differance. Aren't the collections reporting as $18k balance on a $0 limit anyway?

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

spiritcraft1 — Thu, 24 Oct 2019 15:53:01 GMT

@ldkcivilservant wrote:
Down, due to resetting AoYA and lowering AAoA.

I don't see further padding the Util is going to make that much of a differance. Aren't the collections reporting as $18k balance on a $0 limit anyway?

I have no idea how CO's and CA's are factored in. To date, each card added with a larger limit has added points despite shortening up age. It will be easy to figure out effects once we become clean again.

We each have a "report refresh" awaiting on either Creditwise or MF so I will be able to she actual results.

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

Anonymous — Fri, 25 Oct 2019 07:58:50 GMT

I’m in agreement with the above. New account hit, AoYA reset to zero, and AAoA lowering could all cause a drop. UTI decrease normally could raise score, but your usage is essentially zero anyway. You’re going from 1/5 to 1/6 reporting a balance so no AZEO benefit to gain since you both have it already.

Unless I’m missing something, I’d guess 0-10 point drop. Those collections and chargeoffs are big numbers and are hurting you, especially if they’re updating monthly, and your scores aren’t going much higher until they’re dealt with. Is there a plan to use one or both of these new $15k cards on 0% maybe, to take on the balances of some of those derogs with an aggressive pay down plan?

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

FireMedic1 — Fri, 25 Oct 2019 13:27:40 GMT

@spiritcraft1 wrote:
@ldkcivilservant wrote:
Down, due to resetting AoYA and lowering AAoA.

I don't see further padding the Util is going to make that much of a differance. Aren't the collections reporting as $18k balance on a $0 limit anyway?
I have no idea how CO's and CA's are factored in. To date, each card added with a larger limit has added points despite shortening up age. It will be easy to figure out effects once we become clean again.

We each have a "report refresh" awaiting on either Creditwise or MF so I will be able to she actual results.

FICO doesn't look at credit line amounts. Only the percentage (util) usage of the CL thats reported each month.

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

FireMedic1 — Fri, 25 Oct 2019 13:38:39 GMT

@spiritcraft1 You have $72,000+ in CA and CO's between the both of you. Applying for more credit isnt going to do much. Spend more time cleaning up the past before making anymore moves. Especially before the creditors make legal moves to collect on whats owed. You dont want to get there. Good Luck!

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

spiritcraft1 — Fri, 25 Oct 2019 14:12:33 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
Unless I’m missing something, I’d guess 0-10 point drop. Those collections and chargeoffs are big numbers and are hurting you, especially if they’re updating monthly, and your scores aren’t going much higher until they’re dealt with. Is there a plan to use one or both of these new $15k cards on 0% maybe, to take on the balances of some of those derogs with an aggressive pay down plan?

They are all out of SOL and will be gone in a year so they will not be touched. Especially those that are now owned by JDB's. We emptied saving to pay off many accounts before the fall so we do have many good paid and closed accounts that will be on reports until 2024. Any excess cash flow at this point goes to growing our business, hiring and training people while we continue to live frugally. I can not justify taking from them to pay a debt that is time barred. We should have likely decrared BK but were so devistated but events that we neve followed through with that.

I guess we will see where scores go from this approval but it does not matter much at this point. We have been in building history mode since 2016 with initial NFCU secured cards and have risen from 400 to where we are now since early 2018. Anything added now will have aged by the time our files are clean in late 2020.

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

spiritcraft1 — Fri, 25 Oct 2019 14:13:12 GMT

@FireMedic1 wrote:
@spiritcraft1 You have $72,000+ in CA and CO's between the both of you. Applying for more credit isnt going to do much. Spend more time cleaning up the past before making anymore moves. Especially before the creditors make legal moves to collect on whats owed. You dont want to get there. Good Luck!

Everything is out of SOL at this point.

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

FireMedic1 — Fri, 25 Oct 2019 14:22:38 GMT

Wow. Lucky you they didnt persue any of the past.

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

spiritcraft1 — Fri, 25 Oct 2019 14:49:01 GMT

A couple did and got paid off. We paid off almost that amount as the $**bleep** was hitting the fan thinking it would get better. We also sold both nice cars, paid off the CU and bought 10 year old cars. We still drive 10+ year old cars, shop at Goodwill, Aldi etc. Can't get out of frugal mode. Everything goes back into the business, equipment and employees. We have gone from zero revenue after the fall to 11 employees. That is our first priority. All due to a fraudster and the ultimate commercial slumlord... 800+ scores to absolute bottom in about 6 months though being trusting and doing some stupid thing based on that trust and phony assurances really did us in. If it would not have been for a compassionate Sister with an empty townhouse, our family of five would have been under a bridge. Ah well. At this point, I am glad we did not declare.

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

spiritcraft1 — Fri, 25 Oct 2019 15:02:50 GMT

Back to the subject at hand. So far, it seems that the card reported to EX, no change to either score according to Creditworks. I didn't think that was a possibility. Is there a delay in adjusting scores? All versions of FICO available there are unchanged. There is not even an alert???

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

Remedios — Fri, 25 Oct 2019 15:09:38 GMT

@spiritcraft1 Congrats on your recovery

No, there is no delay. Even with high utilization on collections and COs, you eventually hit the wall where adding cards no longer means score going up.

It happens with clean files, too. I haven't lost or gained any points with last 4 new accounts, probably because new account penalty was already in place and there were no changes to utilization and AAoA.

The other two CRA still may have a rise or drop, due to those slight tweaks to algorithm they each have in place.

Anyway, congrats on your new cards and good luck with your business

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

spiritcraft1 — Fri, 25 Oct 2019 15:47:09 GMT

Thank you. FICO scores are a strange beast. Watch TU bump me 15 points while wierdo EQ takes me down 10.

I appreciate the wishes! It was a very diffucult few years wher the thought of giving up was always there. Pretty cool now, great heirloom quality product shipped nationally and training people to become masters at a trade. That is rewarding and balances out the karma! I had a lot of guilt for burning CC companies but have learned to let it go as the choice is these fine people or paying old out of SOL debts.

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

spiritcraft1 — Sat, 26 Oct 2019 16:28:59 GMT

The results are in. A mixed bag of results.

DW (from Creditwise as opposed to MF update from 2 days ago)

TU FICO 08 +6

EX FICO 08 unchanged (other Creditwise scores also unchanged)

EQ FICO 08 -2

ME (from MF)

TU FICO 08 -4 (FICO 09 -6 Others no noticable changes)

EX FICO 08 unchanged (other Creditwise scores also unchanged)

EQ FICO 08 -2 (FICO 09 +2, others no noticable changes)

Now her AMEX Gold will report next.

Future: I may get one more personal card somewhere to allow to age. Other than that. business credit will be the focus along with DW's report as that is closer to being clean.

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

NRB525 — Sat, 26 Oct 2019 17:20:59 GMT

Congrats on the new cards. Sounds like you are making progress in the real world, to make a better future for yourself.

FICO scores are not the real world. They are an attempt to simplify "credit risk" analysis, but as your story tells, FICO alone is not enough. In this case, as noted by others above, your baddies have created a ceiling that your scores will only inch up, until the baddies are removed.

You also have adequate credit it seems, to move forward, so best of luck to you and your family.

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

spiritcraft1 — Sat, 26 Oct 2019 18:38:38 GMT

@NRB525 wrote:
Congrats on the new cards. Sounds like you are making progress in the real world, to make a better future for yourself.

FICO scores are not the real world. They are an attempt to simplify "credit risk" analysis, but as your story tells, FICO alone is not enough. In this case, as noted by others above, your baddies have created a ceiling that your scores will only inch up, until the baddies are removed.

You also have adequate credit it seems, to move forward, so best of luck to you and your family.

Thanks you, I appreciate the well wishes. We have done what was needed and put in safeguards and rules and have built this in such a way as to make sure we are never vulnerable or can be taken down again. The business has grown 600% over what is was as a Mom and Pop before downfall and all with cashflow including added employees, build out, expansion and equipment additions.. Total debt including business Net 30 accounts, personal CC's and our two SSL loans equals less than $1k as I type this. We still take small salaries compared to what we could do and live very frugally as mentioned above.

One day soon we will be clear in terms of FICO's and that may come in handy but I am opposed to burdening the business with debt that can not be paid for within 30 days. A personal mortgage is on the horizon with a decent downpayment so that there will not be anywhere near an underwater situation.

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

Anonymous — Sun, 27 Oct 2019 06:15:48 GMT

In my opinion age of the youngest accounts should not be an issue here because it’s a dirty file.

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

spiritcraft1 — Sun, 27 Oct 2019 13:43:22 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
In my opinion age of the youngest accounts should not be an issue here because it’s a dirty file.

My idea here has been to add accounts that will be of use in the future so that they have some age when things clear up. We will both be loosing many good paid and closed accounts in 2023 or so. We each have perhaps 10, CC accounts and paid auto loans that we paid and closed in 2013.

If we wait to add more accounts when things are clean our average age will become that much younger as the bad falls off and then all of the old good accounts.

Re: New card about to report. Will FICO 08's Rise or fall? Guesses?

Anonymous — Wed, 30 Oct 2019 07:07:15 GMT

I think that’s an excellent plan. I think you’re doing exactly the right thing in being proactive.

I was just noting there is no AoYA reset on a dirty file, it’s a segmentation factor on clean files only from what I have learned and read here and in publications.