topic Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs in Understanding FICO® Scoring

(THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

Iusedtolurk — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 05:05:45 GMT

Well I was warned beforehand by @Anonymous that once I age 3 years on my AoOA my Fico 8 would take a hit and it did and also my AAoA aged to 2 yrs.

I was told it's called the "Big Hit" and being forewarned I was bracing for it. No one in a rebuild wants to lose points when they are trying to do all the right things (seeing that happen makes your stomach slightly queasy). All you want to see is that score in an upward trend.

Luckily it wasn't as bad as I had imagined (15, 20 or more points oh noooo).

Ended up being minus 10/11 points across the F8s.

The Fico 2s and 3 actually picked up plus 3/4 points.

I believe you get a few points when your AoYRA turns 12 months so next month we will see what happens.

Not able to get F9 but probably lost a few points there also.

Hope these data points help those approaching similar milestones!

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

Anonymous — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 05:23:44 GMT

Rebucketing only taking you down around 10 points isn't that bad and I feel you made out pretty well!

As for AoYRA hitting 12 months, you should see more than a few points. Many report gains to the tune of 15-20 points for hitting it.

Is 2 years AAoA confirmed to be a threshold? If so, hitting that could have absorbed a bit of your rebucketing loss. Perhaps you really lost (say) 16 for the AoOA tick upward, but in gaining (say) 6 from the AAoA threshold crossing your net loss was only 10.

I've always thought that AAoA thresholds were a mid-year points, but maybe that's only when you're talking higher values like 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 and they're whole number years down lower?

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

Iusedtolurk — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 06:19:14 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
Rebucketing only taking you down around 10 points isn't that bad and I feel you made out pretty well!

As for AoYRA hitting 12 months, you should see more than a few points. Many report gains to the tune of 15-20 points for hitting it.

Is 2 years AAoA confirmed to be a threshold? If so, hitting that could have absorbed a bit of your rebucketing loss. Perhaps you really lost (say) 16 for the AoOA tick upward, but in gaining (say) 6 from the AAoA threshold crossing your net loss was only 10.

I've always thought that AAoA thresholds were a mid-year points, but maybe that's only when you're talking higher values like 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 and they're whole number years down lower?

Somewhere IIRC I either read or was told that hitting 2 years AAoA was worth a few points and I was expecting a bigger drop (although I know with a lot of things the YMMV and Profile Specific variables come into play) so when I saw 10/11 points loss I kinda thought that the AAoA hitting 2 years might have buffered the true impact of the "Big Drop" potentially being 15, 20 or more point loss.

Hope you're right about the gains when AoYRA hits 12 months. (we will see)

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

barca — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 08:05:05 GMT

This FICO 8 algorithm needs to be re written all over again.

so two people with identical report except one has..

AoOA = 3 years and another AoOA= 35 months

the person with AoOA = 35 months will have higher score..

sometimes I keep wondering how and who wrote this algorithm and if enough unit test was done on this model..

rebucketing or not - I don'tt see any logical; sense in it

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

Anonymous — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 15:31:52 GMT

@Iusedtolurk wrote:
Hope you're right about the gains when AoYRA hits 12 months. (we will see)

I'm fairly confident that's what you'll see. I haven't seen many report much less than that, where some have reported closer to 25 points on F8. Also you want to make sure you grab your score on the 1st of the month whenever that happens, as the inquiry or inquiries associated with that youngest revolver will become unscoreable days or weeks later which could give you an unclean data point if those are factored in with the scorecard reassignment.

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

Anonymous — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 15:40:16 GMT

@barca wrote:
This FICO 8 algorithm needs to be re written all over again.

so two people with identical report except one has..
AoOA = 3 years and another AoOA= 35 months

the person with AoOA = 35 months will have higher score..

sometimes I keep wondering how and who wrote this algorithm and if enough unit test was done on this model..

rebucketing or not - I don'tt see any logical; sense in it

Well, I don't believe that old algorithms are rewritten. Instead newer/seemingly "better" versions are developed. I understand your point though and we were having this same conversation regarding 35 months vs 36 months and AoOA in late 2020. My argument or one proposed solution at the time was that the upper end of the lower scorecard and the lower end of the upper scorecard should be at the same point. Then when scorecard reassignment happens from AoOA, there would potentially be no score change.

When you consider scorecards and large groups of people it's easier to understand that when it comes to someone with 3 years AoOA being compared to someone with 5, 10, 25, even 50+ years AoOA they're going to be viewed as weaker within that group... where someone with 35 months AoOA is being compared to all others with lower AoOA levels so in that group their 35 month AoOA looks great.

The score loss associated with that scorecard reassignment is one of the few things that bothers me about the algorithm though. This is coming from someone that has zero problem with the AZ revolver penalty and little issue with the closure of a loan causing a score drop.

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

Anonymous — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 16:12:47 GMT

This scorecard reassignment does not always result in a drop, but it most usually does. Again it’s all profile dependent, each scorecard weighs different metrics differently, so there’s no way to make them match up because profiles are not gonna match up, if that makes sense.

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

Anonymous — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 16:13:25 GMT

@Iusedtolurk glad it didn't hit you too hard!

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

Remedios — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 18:36:47 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
@Iusedtolurk wrote:
Hope you're right about the gains when AoYRA hits 12 months. (we will see)

I'm fairly confident that's what you'll see. I haven't seen many report much less than that, where some have reported closer to 25 points on F8. Also you want to make sure you grab your score on the 1st of the month whenever that happens, as the inquiry or inquiries associated with that youngest revolver will become unscoreable days or weeks later which could give you an unclean data point if those are factored in with the scorecard reassignment.

I gained exactly 3 points on each CRA when youngest revolver reached a year.

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

Remedios — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 18:37:26 GMT

@Iusedtolurk wrote:
Well I was warned beforehand by @Anonymous that once I age 3 years on my AoOA my Fico 8 would take a hit and it did and also my AAoA aged to 2 yrs.

I was told it's called the "Big Hit" and being forewarned I was bracing for it. No one in a rebuild wants to lose points when they are trying to do all the right things (seeing that happen makes your stomach slightly queasy). All you want to see is that score in an upward trend.

Luckily it wasn't as bad as I had imagined (15, 20 or more points oh noooo).

Ended up being minus 10/11 points across the F8s.
The Fico 2s and 3 actually picked up plus 3/4 points.

I believe you get a few points when your AoYRA turns 12 months so next month we will see what happens.

ps
Not able to get F9 but probably lost a few points there also.
Hope these data points help those approaching similar milestones!

Pretty sure I called it here

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

barca — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 19:17:20 GMT

It will be interesting to see how FICO 9 and 10 will react to AoOA = 3 years

I guess for AAoA and AoYA they probably won't differ much for FICO 8, 9, 10

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

Iusedtolurk — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 20:11:13 GMT

@Remedios wrote:
@Iusedtolurk wrote:
Well I was warned beforehand by @Anonymous that once I age 3 years on my AoOA my Fico 8 would take a hit and it did and also my AAoA aged to 2 yrs.

I was told it's called the "Big Hit" and being forewarned I was bracing for it. No one in a rebuild wants to lose points when they are trying to do all the right things (seeing that happen makes your stomach slightly queasy). All you want to see is that score in an upward trend.

Luckily it wasn't as bad as I had imagined (15, 20 or more points oh noooo).

Ended up being minus 10/11 points across the F8s.
The Fico 2s and 3 actually picked up plus 3/4 points.

I believe you get a few points when your AoYRA turns 12 months so next month we will see what happens.

ps
Not able to get F9 but probably lost a few points there also.
Hope these data points help those approaching similar milestones!

Pretty sure I called it here

@Remedios You are Absolutely correct! You did call it as not taking a giant hit and only losing 5-10 points.

It was in the back of my mind but I couldn't quite place it thanks for the reminder.

Hopefully though I will get more than 3 points across the bureaus like you did when AoYRA hit 12 months. Maybe the lower scores of my profile compared to yours will garner more points (fingers crossed).

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

Remedios — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 20:30:57 GMT

@Iusedtolurk I hope you do.

My three puny points aren't the norm (if there is such a thing), and I have no idea why my profile deviated that much from "the norm"

Witchcraft!

Re: (THE BIG HIT)Credit Score Data Points When AoOA Hits 3 Yrs AAoA 2 Yrs

Anonymous — Tue, 02 Feb 2021 20:31:06 GMT

@Remedios wrote:
I gained exactly 3 points on each CRA when youngest revolver reached a year.

What details do you have on your scorecard at the time / profile data that resulted in your gain being significantly lower than average?