topic Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates in Understanding FICO® Scoring

Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

MasonK — Mon, 05 Apr 2021 14:01:36 GMT

It’s been a wild ride for the past 7 years starting with me and my wife going from stable and solvent to both being laid off, getting divorced, losing the house, and letting every loan go into major delinquency. Today marked the first falloff of my foreclosure and my first huge increase in scoring.

Inspired by JagerBombs89’s epic chronical about going from over 800 into foreclosure and back, I am creating this post to track specific falloff points to determine when, how, and by how much certain events can suppress a score. I want to say again that my main focus here wanting to highlight when and how information falloff is handled by the 3 CRAs. These DPs are a little thin on the forum.

1/20/21 Event: 2 foreclosures being removed from Experian.

DOFD: 4/2014

Last Day of String: 11/2014 (unbroken string of lates)

Fall Off Notes:

EX report listed both mortgage accounts will be removed 1/21; both removed from report 1/20/21. This is not consistent with other DPs I have seen on the forum being 2 full weeks and three full weekends into the month.
EQ report lists the same late dates, 4/14 late has been removed from that report on 1st mortgage, 2nd Mortgage has been totally removed although it was not showing any lates, just the CO.
TU report lists the same late dates for both mortgages, no change to any mortgage accounts.

Remaining Negative Information: There should be 30 student loan lates on the EX report, but they have not been showing up on my EX report since those 30 lates on 3 different loans vanished for no good reason in September 2020. This report is now showing 100% clean (unlike EQ and TU).

Scores (EX):

FICO 8: 713 -> 796

FICO 2: 727 -> 807

Auto 2: 763 -> 841

Auto 8: 741 -> 816

Bankcard 2: 734 -> 835

Bankcard 3: 720 -> 811

Bankcard 8: 726 -> 808

FICO 8 (EQ): 710 -> 711

FICO 8 (TU): 726 -> 731

2/6/21 Event: 1 foreclosure being removed from Equifax and Transunion.

DOFD: 4/2014 (Both)

Last Day of String: 11/2014 (unbroken string of lates)

Fall Off Notes:

TU report lists 1st mortgage falloff 2/21; removed from report 2/5/21.
EQ report lists 1st mortgage DOFD as 4/14, removed 2/6/21.

Remaining Negative Information: 2nd Mortgage CO still on TU listed to be removed 3/21. EQ has no remaining mortgage accounts listed. ~30 lates on 3 different student loans remain on EQ and TU.

Score Changes (EQ & TU):

TU FICO 8: 731 -> 731

EQ FICO 8: 711 -> 725

4/4/21 Event: 1 Student Loan Late being removed from Equifax.

DOD (Late payment with more payments afterwards: 7/2014 (removed 4/4/21)

Last Day of String: 8/2014 (unbroken string of lates)

Fall Off Notes:

EQ report listed a string of 3 lates from 6/14-8/14 with positive payments after; removed 4/4/21.

Next event will be last SL Late from a string of 3 on EQ. All 3 still remain on TU report.

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

Anonymous — Wed, 20 Jan 2021 18:22:37 GMT

Congrats on getting clean again! Nice score gains. Looks like gains of around 80 points on average give or take, right in line with what is typically expected when one's final major negative item comes off and a file moves from dirty to clean. Great work and thanks for the data!

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

Anonymous — Thu, 21 Jan 2021 05:27:58 GMT

@MasonK wrote:
It’s been a wild ride for the past 7 years starting with me and my wife going from stable and solvent to both being laid off, getting divorced, losing the house, and letting every loan go into major delinquency. Today marked the first falloff of my foreclosure and my first huge increase in scoring.

Inspired by JagerBombs89’s epic chronical about going from over 800 into foreclosure and back, I am creating this post to track specific falloff points to determine when, how, and by how much certain events can suppress a score. I want to say again that my main focus here wanting to highlight when and how information falloff is handled by the 3 CRAs. These DPs are a little thin on the forum.

1/20/21 Event: 2 foreclosures being removed from Experian.
DOFD: 4/2014
Last Day of String: 11/2014 (unbroken string of lates)
Fall Off Notes:
EX report listed both mortgage accounts will be removed 1/21; both removed from report 1/20/21. This is not consistent with other DPs I have seen on the forum being 2 full weeks and three full weekends into the month.
EQ report lists the same late dates, 4/14 late has been removed from that report on 1st mortgage, 2nd Mortgage has been totally removed although it was not showing any lates, just the CO.
TU report lists the same late dates for both mortgages, no change to any mortgage accounts.
Remaining Negative Information: There should be 30 student loan lates on the EX report, but they have not been showing up on my EX report since those 30 lates on 3 different loans vanished for no good reason in September 2020. This report is now showing 100% clean (unlike EQ and TU).

Scores (EX):
FICO 8: 713 -> 796
FICO 2: 727 -> 807
Auto 2: 763 -> 841
Auto 8: 741 -> 816
Bankcard 2: 734 -> 835
Bankcard 3: 720 -> 811
Bankcard 8: 726 -> 808

FICO 8 (EQ): 710 -> 711
FICO 8 (TU): 726 -> 731

Next updates: Foreclosures slated to be removed from EQ and TU 2/21 & 3/21. SL lates will begin to age out 6/21.

Were the SL lates a string of lates?

You could also request EE from TU for the FC(s), if you are so inclined.

The thought with EX is that basically they will get around to removing accounts at basically any point during the month listed for "on record until". The DPs are all over the place for when they decide to drop those TLs. Although, technically, 3 full weekends and 2 full weeks did pass before yours did finally come off.

Congrats on the baddies falling off and thanks for the DPs!

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

MasonK — Thu, 21 Jan 2021 15:26:19 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:

Were the SL lates a string of lates?

You could also request EE from TU for the FC(s), if you are so inclined.

The thought with EX is that basically they will get around to removing accounts at basically any point during the month listed for "on record until". The DPs are all over the place for when they decide to drop those TLs. Although, technically, 3 full weekends and 2 full weeks did pass before yours did finally come off.

Excellent questions!

These falloffs were 2 mortgages in foreclosure/chargeoff; yes- unbroken strings of lates.

I could request EE, but I've decided not to request EE on any of my baddies to document the specific falloff dates and see how to items fall off over time and by CRA. This is a controlled data gathering push to acquire more precise DPs.

As for EX falling off, I've seen a few posts that say one week plus one weekend. I'm just looking to document exact dates and offer possible guidelines as to when things drop either based on date or on more abstract things like first week/first weekend.

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

MasonK — Mon, 08 Feb 2021 15:38:16 GMT

Updated the main post with new information.

TL;DR: Wells Fargo fell off EQ and TU. EQ now just has ~30 late SL payments against 3 loans; TU still has the Citimortgage CO until next month. EQ up 15; TU remains flat.

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

Anonymous — Tue, 09 Feb 2021 08:14:31 GMT

@MasonK wrote:
Updated the main post with new information.

TL;DR: Wells Fargo fell off EQ and TU. EQ now just has ~30 late SL payments against 3 loans; TU still has the Citimortgage CO until next month. EQ up 15; TU remains flat.

Congrats on those finally aging off!

Just curious, was the age off date from a CMS alert or doing an ACR 3B (or other source) CR pull?

When SO had 1 of his 2 COs EE'd, he also saw +0 pts score gain on TU (also has 29 SL lates). I am thinking that after the 2nd CO comes off is when he will see the score boost.

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

MasonK — Tue, 09 Feb 2021 13:50:26 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
Just curious, was the age off date from aCMSS alert or doing anACRR3BB (or other source)CRR pull?

When SO had 1 of his 2 COs EE'd, he also saw +0ptss score gain onTUU (also has 29SLLlatess). I am thinking that after the2ndd CO comes off is when he will see the score boost.

I'm using the dates that I got the CR Update push notice from MyFICO as the Age Off Date for data points. As for when they are supposed to drop off date, that's from ACR.

I suspect that TU will jump once the Citimortgage CO goes away. I wasn't totally suprised to see no change since I'm pretty much maxed out on my score for having a CO present with other 120+lates. My DPs are consistent with other DPs that a CO would supress around 85 points.

What will be interesting to me is what the other lates are holding it back. I couldn't get that data from EX since they magically excluded all my SL lates back in September and I only got about 5 points back for that with 2 foreclosures still on record. My guess is that it will be similar to my EQ rebound of about 15.

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

CaptRon — Tue, 23 Mar 2021 01:23:16 GMT

@MasonK wrote:
It’s been a wild ride for the past 7 years starting with me and my wife going from stable and solvent to both being laid off, getting divorced, losing the house, and letting every loan go into major delinquency. Today marked the first falloff of my foreclosure and my first huge increase in scoring.

Inspired by JagerBombs89’s epic chronical about going from over 800 into foreclosure and back, I am creating this post to track specific falloff points to determine when, how, and by how much certain events can suppress a score. I want to say again that my main focus here wanting to highlight when and how information falloff is handled by the 3 CRAs. These DPs are a little thin on the forum.

1/20/21 Event: 2 foreclosures being removed from Experian.
DOFD: 4/2014
Last Day of String: 11/2014 (unbroken string of lates)
Fall Off Notes:
EX report listed both mortgage accounts will be removed 1/21; both removed from report 1/20/21. This is not consistent with other DPs I have seen on the forum being 2 full weeks and three full weekends into the month.
EQ report lists the same late dates, 4/14 late has been removed from that report on 1st mortgage, 2nd Mortgage has been totally removed although it was not showing any lates, just the CO.
TU report lists the same late dates for both mortgages, no change to any mortgage accounts.
Remaining Negative Information: There should be 30 student loan lates on the EX report, but they have not been showing up on my EX report since those 30 lates on 3 different loans vanished for no good reason in September 2020. This report is now showing 100% clean (unlike EQ and TU).

Scores (EX):
FICO 8: 713 -> 796
FICO 2: 727 -> 807
Auto 2: 763 -> 841
Auto 8: 741 -> 816
Bankcard 2: 734 -> 835
Bankcard 3: 720 -> 811
Bankcard 8: 726 -> 808

FICO 8 (EQ): 710 -> 711
FICO 8 (TU): 726 -> 731

2/6/21 Event: 1 foreclosure being removed from Equifax and Transunion.
DOFD: 4/2014 (Both)
Last Day of String: 11/2014 (unbroken string of lates)
Fall Off Notes:
TU report lists 1st mortgage falloff 2/21; removed from report 2/5/21.
EQ report lists 1st mortgage DOFD as 4/14, removed 2/6/21.
Remaining Negative Information: 2nd Mortgage CO still on TU listed to be removed 3/21. EQ has no remaining mortgage accounts listed. ~30 lates on 3 different student loans remain on EQ and TU.

Score Changes (EQ & TU):
TU FICO 8: 731 -> 731
EQ FICO 8: 711 -> 725

Next event will be 2nd mortgage coming off TU next month and we should see a score boost from that.

Man MasonK that's good s**t there! Thanks for this and waking me up! I have an April 2015 BK (7) and thinking I'm hung up at 670-700 until it falls off. Damnit man, I just been plugging along, I can't wait until 4/22 now!!! Thanks again!

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

MasonK — Mon, 05 Apr 2021 14:06:18 GMT

Updated the main post with new information.

TL;DR: I have a string of 3 SL Lates on TU and EQ from 6/14-8/14. EQ is dropping the lates off 3 months in advance, TU has not dropped any of them yet. This string of lates has positive payment information after the string (even though I know I wasn't paying or in rehab/forbearance). Scores update on the 9th so I didn't post any changes.

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

MasonK — Sat, 05 Mar 2022 19:20:56 GMT

Haven't posted an update for a while because there was about 10 months of wait between the next set of events. Tried to update the 1st post but it won't let me.

March 2022 update:

On the first Sunday of February we saw the May 2015 late payment fall off of EQ leaving me with 8 remaining from June-January. Based on prior data I suspect that these are all going one at a time until the last falls off in October. EQ8 went up 2 points. This was probably credit aging and not the loss of 1 or 9 late payments.

Took an EE on all 9 lates on TU because I could. TU8 went from 761 to 804 and is now clean.

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

MasonK — Sun, 06 Mar 2022 14:41:24 GMT

New interesting DPs for falloff on EQ. As a reminder, this is a string that is dropping one by one. There is no "Will be removed on x-Date" notation on the reports.

January 2022- The last 9 lates are all there.

2/6/22- First Sunday of the month, the March late payment drops off 3 months early as I predicted based on prior experience on this project with other lates from 2014. Nothing unusual here.

3/6/22- I was expecting ONLY the June late to go away, but it dropped June AND July!

Not sure why EQ dropped two months, but another solid DP that EQ drops 3 months in advance when it is not a DOFD-controlled string.

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

W261w261 — Fri, 11 Mar 2022 01:49:26 GMT

Great DP's, thanks. Virtually the only blot on my reports is a CO that will go away in 3 long years. I saw a graph that basically said the penalty from that CO will not substantially reduce until it falls off. Did you notice anything that could lead you to believe that as you got closer to the 7 year mark, that the CO's impact was lessening? Looks like I'm going to be stuck at 740 or so for the forseeable future, AZE2, SSL, and anything else I can do notwithstanding.

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

MasonK — Fri, 11 Mar 2022 03:32:44 GMT

@W261w261 wrote:

Great DP's, thanks. Did you notice anything that could lead you to believe that as you got closer to the 7 year mark, that the CO's impact was lessening? Looks like I'm going to be stuck at 740 or so for the forseeable future, AZE2, SSL, and anything else I can do notwithstanding.

TU... sort of. EX and EQ... not really. I've removed a lot of the notes to clean up the noise, but you'll see that EX topped out in the low 700s until my foreclosures were removed and then it was >70 points increase. My EQ score didn't really budge when I lost the FCLs or the first round of student loans and never got beyond the 740-760 range with 120+ day lates on record.

Date	Experian	Equifax	TransUnion	Notes
1/1/16	407	403	455	>150 lates, 2 FCL, 2 Judgements. FCL Had just re-aged even though it was 2 years old.
2/25/16	412	428	480
3/25/16	417	478	530
4/25/16	422	504	556
5/25/16	442	504	556
6/25/16	458	519	571
7/25/16	504	536	588
8/25/16	506	513	565
9/25/16	521	531	583
10/25/16	551	584	590
11/25/16	619	647	595	CapOne
12/25/16	609	637	600
1/25/17	609	638	613
2/25/17	660	659	635
3/25/17	671	674	643	Discover
4/25/17	671	663	693
5/25/17	671	663	687
6/25/17	672	675	697
7/25/17	672	682	708
8/25/17	670	680	698
9/25/17	670	681	699
10/25/17	660	685	693
11/25/17	667	675	697
12/25/17	654	677	686
1/25/18	665	688	688
2/25/18	665	682	702
3/25/18	678	684	691
4/25/18	678	691	691
5/25/18	689	690	709
6/25/18	679	699	709
7/25/18	692	700	714
8/25/18	692	698	714
9/25/18	692	694	704
10/25/18	680	695	693
11/25/18	693	698	693
12/25/18	683	701	704
1/25/19	687	702	707
2/15/19	687	702	707
3/15/19	687	702	707
4/17/19	687	702	707
5/15/19	687	703	708
6/15/19	687	703	707	Amazon Card
7/15/19	683	696	700	USAA Auto Loan
8/15/19	682	698	696	Apple Card
9/15/19	697	698	698
10/23/19	702	704	700
11/21/19	702	704	709
12/21/19	700	704	714
1/21/20	697	703	716	Sapphire
2/21/20	697	704	713
3/22/20	706	696	716
4/22/20	706	704	727
5/20/20	709	706	727
6/20/20	709	706	727
7/20/20	710	709	729
8/19/20	706	709	730
9/18/20	711	710	726	SLs fall off EX
10/18/20	712	710	726
11/17/20	712	710	726
12/17/20	713	710	726
1/20/21	794	711	731	EX FCL Removed
2/21/21	794	728	753	Amex Plat/ TU-EQ FCL Fall off
3/9/21	785	728	753
4/8/21	794	730	760
5/8/21	792	723	751
7/1/21	795	734	752	SL 1&2 Fall off EQ/TU
8/1/21	795	734	752	Amex Gold
9/1/21	795	734	752
10/1/21	794	741	760
11/1/21	797	738	761
12/1/21	797	738	761
1/1/22	790	740	761
2/1/22	797	740	761
3/3/22	808	742	804	3 EQ Student Loan lates fall off FO / all TU Student loans lates removed.

Re: Data Points for Specific Fall Off Dates

W261w261 — Fri, 11 Mar 2022 10:51:58 GMT

Big thumbs up for you record keeping!