topic Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months! in Understanding FICO® Scoring

EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months AoOA!

FICO-Quest — Tue, 02 Jan 2024 04:07:58 GMT

I've previously read about the dreaded FICO scorecard reassignment, and it appears to have happened to me. I woke up this morning to a 20 point decrease in my Experian Fico 8 score from 794 to 774 - ouch! The only difference in my profile is my oldest reporting account hit 36 months old. I had seen a gain of 8 points in the prior month as 1 of 2 "scorable" inquiries dropped, but that's still a net 12 point loss in the past few weeks despite everything else remaining the same. I also just received an alert from MyFico about a 15 point decrease @ TU.

For anyone keeping track: This is with a clean, thick file (>10 accts), 1 new revolver < 3 mo's old, 2 new revolvers between 6 & 12 months old.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

JoeRockhead — Tue, 02 Jan 2024 03:08:33 GMT

I've never heard of losing points for gaining account age...

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

FICO-Quest — Tue, 02 Jan 2024 04:41:02 GMT

Re-bucketed, from one FICO scorecard to another as AoOA (in my case) incremented @ 36 months - with everything else remaining the same (no balance changes, no derogs, etc.). There's been plenty of discussion about this in books and in this forum:

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/Buckets-Scorecards/m-p/5070090/highlight/true#M130640

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

SouthJamaica — Tue, 02 Jan 2024 16:12:25 GMT

@FICO-Quest wrote:
Re-bucketed, from one FICO scorecard to another as AoOA (in my case) incremented @ 36 months - with everything else remaining the same (no balance changes, no derogs, etc.). There's been plenty of discussion about this in books and in this forum:

https://ficoforums.myfico.com/t5/Understanding-FICO-Scoring/Buckets-Scorecards/m-p/5070090/highlight/true#M130640

I agree with @JoeRockhead that it's unlikely that you sustained a 20 point decrease due to an upward scorecard reassignment. Although I have also seen "plenty of discussion about this" I have never had a score drop of any amount due to an upward scorecard reassignment.

The post you cited does not say anything about losing points when your age of oldest account reaches a milestone.

I frequently see posts in this forum where the member incorrectly believes that a point loss is attributable to something to which it is not attributable, usually due to incomplete knowledge of the timing of the data change and score change, or overlooking an unrelated data change. Sometimes the member figures it out eventually, and corrects him or her self, sometimes not. Those count as "discussion" but they are not authority.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

FICO-Quest — Wed, 03 Jan 2024 01:27:50 GMT

Absolutely no other changes reported except crossing that 36 month AoOA threshold. There were no balance changes, no other changes in accounts reporting, and certainly no public information showing up (without me knowing). There is a $5 balance reported on 1-revolving account (unchanged). I was quite startled it was as big a loss as that. Ex 8 went from 794 to 774, Eq 8 from 802 to 774, and TU 8 from 786 to 771. So far, my Fico 2/4/5 (& 3) don't appear to have suffered the same fate. I'm due for my full monthly update in 6-days.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

Thomas_Thumb — Wed, 03 Jan 2024 01:43:58 GMT

I agree with SJ and JoeRockhead.

BTW - AAoA is not a factor the shifts scorecard assignment. AoOA and AoYA are as is file thickness. AAoA can impact score but not scorecard. An increase in AAoA does not drop score.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

SouthJamaica — Wed, 03 Jan 2024 02:52:41 GMT

@FICO-Quest wrote:
Absolutely no other changes reported except crossing that 36 month AoOA threshold. There were no balance changes, no other changes in accounts reporting, and certainly no public information showing up (without me knowing). There is a $5 balance reported on 1-revolving account (unchanged). I was quite startled it was as big a loss as that. Ex 8 went from 794 to 774, Eq 8 from 802 to 774, and TU 8 from 786 to 771. So far, my Fico 2/4/5 (& 3) don't appear to have suffered the same fate. I'm due for my full monthly update in 6-days.

1. Do you know the date the data changed, or do you just know the date you learned about it?

2. Do you know the date the score changed, or do you just know the date you learned about it?

3. From what sources are you determining that there were no other data changes?

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

FICO-Quest — Wed, 03 Jan 2024 09:26:20 GMT

@SouthJamaica wrote:
@FICO-Quest wrote:
Absolutely no other changes reported except crossing that 36 month AoOA threshold. There were no balance changes, no other changes in accounts reporting, and certainly no public information showing up (without me knowing). There is a $5 balance reported on 1-revolving account (unchanged). I was quite startled it was as big a loss as that. Ex 8 went from 794 to 774, Eq 8 from 802 to 774, and TU 8 from 786 to 771. So far, my Fico 2/4/5 (& 3) don't appear to have suffered the same fate. I'm due for my full monthly update in 6-days.
1. Do you know the date the data changed, or do you just know the date you learned about it?
Logged into Experian late on 12/31 and received the "alert" that I had 20 point decrease in my EX 8 score. Started receiving the alerts from MyFico for Fico 8 score decreases on TU & EQ on 1/2 today, around midday. I've logged in directly with Experian, Equifax and TransUnion to verify the lack of any additional changes to data.

2. Do you know the date the score changed, or do you just know the date you learned about it?
I am absolutely, 100% certain that the 20 point decrease in EX8 occurred as the clock rolled over on 1/1/2024, EST. I happened to log in to Experian to check something on the morning of 12/31 and it showed my EX8 still @ 794, and I logged in again late on 12/31 (after 9pm PST) to update a spreadsheet I was working on and saw the red notification of the 20 point decrease from Experian. I am slightly less than 100% certain that my TU/EQ changed on 1/1 simply because I just didn't look at my Fico 8 scores for those 2 from another source.

3. From what sources are you determining that there were no other data changes?
I pulled a full credit reports from all 3 CRA's on 12/20, and obtained an updated set of scores from MyFico on that same day. I have since logged in directly to Experian, Equifax and Trans Union to verify no other changes have been made to my reports. My curiosity got the better of me and I paid for an extra set of scores today to compare.

Bottom line: Mortgage scores still posted modest increases on/about 1/1/2024, Fico 10's also increased if anyone is interested. Fico 8's and 9's though took a huge hit. The Auto and Bankcard enhanced scores tracked the increases or decreases listed for the corresponding Fico versions. If anyone wants additional details, I'll be happy to respond. Here's some specifics:

Fico 2/5/4 (EX/EQ/TU) - 12/20:     756/736/750
Fico 2/5/4 (EX/EQ/TU) - 01/02:     760/745/752

Fico 3 (EX) 12/20:      742
Fico 3 (EX).01/02:      755

Fico 8 (EX/EQ/TU) 12/20:     794/802/790
Fico 8 (EX/EQ/TU) 01/02:     774/774/771

Fico 9 (EX/EQ/TU) 12/20:     800/818/795
Fico 9 (EX/EQ/TU) 01/02:     777/815/780

This is with a total of 12 accounts (9 of which are revolvers), 1-revolver is reporting a balance of $5 (before AND after), there is 1 scorable inquiry with EX/EQ, 3 scorable Inquiries with TU. There is no history of lates, collections, public records, etc. before/after, ONLY the 36 month AoOA (or rather, Age of Credit File) now reporting. Oh, and AAoA is 1yr 9 months.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

SouthJamaica — Wed, 03 Jan 2024 14:41:00 GMT

@FICO-Quest wrote:
@SouthJamaica wrote:
@FICO-Quest wrote:
Absolutely no other changes reported except crossing that 36 month AoOA threshold. There were no balance changes, no other changes in accounts reporting, and certainly no public information showing up (without me knowing). There is a $5 balance reported on 1-revolving account (unchanged). I was quite startled it was as big a loss as that. Ex 8 went from 794 to 774, Eq 8 from 802 to 774, and TU 8 from 786 to 771. So far, my Fico 2/4/5 (& 3) don't appear to have suffered the same fate. I'm due for my full monthly update in 6-days.
1. Do you know the date the data changed, or do you just know the date you learned about it?
Logged into Experian late on 12/31 and received the "alert" that I had 20 point decrease in my EX 8 score. Started receiving the alerts from MyFico for Fico 8 score decreases on TU & EQ on 1/2 today, around midday. I've logged in directly with Experian, Equifax and TransUnion to verify the lack of any additional changes to data.

2. Do you know the date the score changed, or do you just know the date you learned about it?
I am absolutely, 100% certain that the 20 point decrease in EX8 occurred as the clock rolled over on 1/1/2024, EST. I happened to log in to Experian to check something on the morning of 12/31 and it showed my EX8 still @ 794, and I logged in again late on 12/31 (after 9pm PST) to update a spreadsheet I was working on and saw the red notification of the 20 point decrease from Experian. I am slightly less than 100% certain that my TU/EQ changed on 1/1 simply because I just didn't look at my Fico 8 scores for those 2 from another source.

3. From what sources are you determining that there were no other data changes?
I pulled a full credit reports from all 3 CRA's on 12/20, and obtained an updated set of scores from MyFico on that same day. I have since logged in directly to Experian, Equifax and Trans Union to verify no other changes have been made to my reports. My curiosity got the better of me and I paid for an extra set of scores today to compare.

Bottom line: Mortgage scores still posted modest increases on/about 1/1/2024, Fico 10's also increased if anyone is interested. Fico 8's and 9's though took a huge hit. The Auto and Bankcard enhanced scores tracked the increases or decreases listed for the corresponding Fico versions. If anyone wants additional details, I'll be happy to respond. Here's some specifics:

Fico 2/5/4 (EX/EQ/TU) - 12/20:     756/736/750
Fico 2/5/4 (EX/EQ/TU) - 01/02:     760/745/752

Fico 3 (EX) 12/20:      742
Fico 3 (EX).01/02:      755

Fico 8 (EX/EQ/TU) 12/20:     794/802/790
Fico 8 (EX/EQ/TU) 01/02:     774/774/771

Fico 9 (EX/EQ/TU) 12/20:     800/818/795
Fico 9 (EX/EQ/TU) 01/02:     777/815/780

This is with a total of 12 accounts (9 of which are revolvers), 1-revolver is reporting a balance of $5 (before AND after), there is 1 scorable inquiry with EX/EQ, 3 scorable Inquiries with TU. There is no history of lates, collections, public records, etc. before/after, ONLY the 36 month AoOA (or rather, Age of Credit File) now reporting. Oh, and AAoA is 1yr 9 months.

Well thank you for the data.

So everything went up except FICO 8's and 9's.

It's a head scratcher to me.

Maybe @Thomas_Thumb will be able to figure it out.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

Thomas_Thumb — Wed, 03 Jan 2024 23:25:30 GMT

In my prior post I mentioned that AAoA was not associated with scorecard assignment. I also mentioned that AoOA was a factor in scorecard assignment. I mistakenly thought the OP was referring to his AAoA being 36 months.

Given it was the OP's AoOA aging to 36 months that could very well result in a scorecard reassignment. As we know, the various Fico models adjust signal strength of scoring factors differently across their scorecards.

The older Fico 98 and Fico 04 algorithms have 10 total scorecards (2 dirty, 8 clean) fico 8 has 12 (4 dirty, 8 clean) and Fico 9 has 13 (4 dirty, 9 clean). Not sure about Fico 10. The various algorithms adjust scoring factor signal strengths differently overall and among scorecards.

Therefore, a change in scorecard with one Fico model may have a different impact on score than a reassignment on another Fico model.

I realize this does not get to the root cause of the score drop on Fico 8 and 9. That requires some what, why and what if analysis.

For example, opening a new revolving account can drop score 20 points on Fico 8/9 if the profile has no other recent account openings. What if I were on a new credit scorecard due to my low AoOA. Might it not penalize further for this new account? Now what if I got re-assigned to an established credit scorecard. Might I then get hit with the 20 point penalty?

Why didn't my score drop on other Fico models? Might those models not have the new account penalty? Is it possible there was no scorecard reassignment with those models? These hypothesis would need to be researched and either supported or refuted with data.

The above is just one example. The same approach could be applied to an aged 30 day late. The late would translate to a dirty scorecard on the older Fico mortgage models. However, it would not prevent a clean assignment on Fico 8/9 if no other derogs were on File. Age of file is not a consideration in dirty scorecard assignment.

Industry option scores are derived using the base Classic algorithm and then applying an overlay. The scorecard segmentation is in the base model, not the overlay.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

SouthJamaica — Thu, 04 Jan 2024 02:38:21 GMT

It's my understanding that both Age of Oldest Account and Age of Youngest Account can affect one's scorecard assignment.

I have found that when I have an upward scorecard reassignment due to improved AoYA, my EX FICO 8 scores increase; they do not drop.

My most recent AoYA reassignment gained 26 points, each of which I promptly lost -- point for point -- when I got myself reassigned downwards.

Needless to say, this is all guesswork, because FICO never tells me I've been reassigned

And I really don't know about AoOA: my oldest account is so old that the difference between one year and the next is meaningless in the greater scheme of things. Probably my scorecard would never change in that department.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

Thomas_Thumb — Thu, 04 Jan 2024 03:47:14 GMT

Of course increasing AoYA above 12 months increases score. However, if someone has a low AoYA perhaps score is not penalized if they are new to credit. Then their profile hits the AoOA threshold and boom! They get slammed with a 20 point penalty for their 1 month old account.

With AoOA you are either above or below a scorecard reassignment cutoff. Most of us cross above the AoOA only once. From then on we have established credit.

My AoOA is 40 years and my AoYA is 10 years. Assuming the AoOA is 3 years I could not get there without all accounts falling off my file!

Would I experience the new account penalty if my AoOA were under 3 years and I opened a new account? Not sure as I could never test it! Only someone relatively new to credit could test. I'd need to look at their data.

Impact of some clean scorecard reassignments are a one shot deal. What happens scorewise likely depends on the level of scoring factors when the reassignment happens.

Not sure the OPs score changes are the result of a scorecard change. However, unexplained score shifts at 3 years were mentioned multiple times in Birdman's thread on credit. He and CassieCard concluded 3 years was the likely AoOA cutoff.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

SouthJamaica — Thu, 04 Jan 2024 16:02:59 GMT

Very good point. Most of us experience the AoOA upward reassignments rarely.

In my case, I experienced them long before I was conscious of FICO scoring and all that that entails.

So if I read you right, you're saying that there might be something already existing in OP's profile which didn't cause a problem in the lower scorecards, but does cause a problem in the higher FICO 8 and 9 scorecards.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

Thomas_Thumb — Thu, 04 Jan 2024 23:22:35 GMT

Yes, that is the hypothesis. I only used the new credit account as an example because the OP has one.

Scorecard reassignment could still be an innocent scapegoat and not cause. The only thing we can say is there is only one AoOA cutoff for Fico 8 on scorecard reassignment. If it is truely 3 years then it can't also be 4 years or 5 years.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

FICO-Quest — Fri, 05 Jan 2024 04:36:39 GMT

Thanks - A good discussion that prompted a re-read of the Credit Scoring primer thread from few years ago, and a review of my detailed scores I've been tracking since Sept '21. One thing abundantly clear is that I have not been seeing a new-account penalty imposed on my scores prior to crossing the 36 month AoOA threshold, only for any incremental inquiries (>2, >4, etc). Now that I've crossed into the new scorecard (> 36 months AoOA) I have 2 revolvers opened 7-8 months ago, and 1 revolver opened 80 days ago (< 3 mo's) that the scoring algorithm might not like as much. I know it's not particularly reliable, but FWIW the Fico Score Simulator predicts point gains of 5-10 points directly corresponding to the aging of those 3 revolvers at their respective 6 & 12 months of age milestones.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

SouthJamaica — Fri, 05 Jan 2024 15:28:12 GMT

@Thomas_Thumb wrote:
Yes, that is the hypothesis. I only used the new credit account as an example because the OP has one.

Scorecard reassignment could still be an innocent scapegoat and not cause. The only thing we can say is there is only one AoOA cutoff for Fico 8 on scorecard reassignment. If it is truely 3 years then it can't also be 4 years or 5 years.

Just curious: how do we know there's only one?

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

Thomas_Thumb — Fri, 05 Jan 2024 17:07:06 GMT

Because the segmentation factors are binary. Either A or B, either 1 or 2, either on or off. Or put another way the scorecard segmentation is 2 level high/low differentiation.

Older Fico models have a different # of scorecards than newer models. The numerical values used to segment those scorecards are binary as well. However, since the model is different, it could assign a different value to a segmentation factor. Key point is that within a Fico model the value of a segmentation factor is set. For a binary H/L segmentation "there can be only one" value.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

SouthJamaica — Fri, 05 Jan 2024 20:20:06 GMT

@Thomas_Thumb wrote:
Because the segmentation factors are binary. Either A or B, either 1 or 2, either on or off. Or put another way the scorecard segmentation is 2 level high/low differentiation.

Older Fico models have a different # of scorecards than newer models. The numerical values used to segment those scorecards are binary as well. However, since the model is different, it could assign a different value to a segmentation factor. Key point is that within a Fico model the value of a segmentation factor is set. For a binary H/L segmentation "there can be only one" value.

Thanks. Well @FICO-Quest we've both got an education from @Thomas_Thumb

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

BuckyB — Sat, 06 Jan 2024 07:35:53 GMT

Keep in mind too that FICO scoring models are purposely "detuned" to keep them "palatable" to the government and society (see this paper: FICO scores are only 98% as accurate as they could be) so trying to make sense of every few points gained or lost is an exercise in futility. Scores are not 100% based on logic and math and so data points will never give full insight into what's inside the FICO algorithm black box.

Re: EX 8 decrease of 20 points @ 36 months!

SouthJamaica — Sat, 06 Jan 2024 13:56:46 GMT

@BuckyB wrote:
Keep in mind too that FICO scoring models are purposely "detuned" to keep them "palatable" to the government and society (see this paper: FICO scores are only 98% as accurate as they could be) so trying to make sense of every few points gained or lost is an exercise in futility. Scores are not 100% based on logic and math and so data points will never give full insight into what's inside the FICO algorithm black box.

IMHO trying to understand FICO scoring can be quite useful.