topic Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8? in Understanding FICO® Scoring

Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

BrutalBodyShots — Thu, 01 Jan 2026 03:51:43 GMT

Just wondering if anyone has any data points of a single hard inquiry impacting a FICO 8 score > 21 points.

I've seen multiple data points on a clean/thin/young file of a first inquiry (for a first credit card) impacting a FICO 8 score exactly 21 points. I've seen that many times on TU8, and at least a couple on EX or EQ.

I would think this impact would be greatest on a clean/thin/young file, but I'm not sure. This is why I ask if anyone has seen a > 21 point impact elsewhere? Perhaps a dirty/thin/young file? Somewhere else?

Thank you to anyone/everyone that's able to contribute to the topic.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

Thomas_Thumb — Thu, 01 Jan 2026 18:38:11 GMT

Curious - What type of open, active, account did these profiles have on file to generate a Fico score pre card application? Were any AU accounts associated with these profiles?

I've seen posts by parents who established AU accounts for kids at 16. Then when the kid turned 18 and got their own account they received a credit score without the 6 month delay.

How did scores react when the new revolving account reported activity? Interesting dynamics in play with these types of profiles.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

BrutalBodyShots — Thu, 01 Jan 2026 11:36:16 GMT

None. The data point I'm referencing is for a new account profile, so a first FICO score generates after 6 months. The debut score with optimized utilization is 750. Exactly 365 days after the account is opened, the inquiry becomes unscoreable and the score increases to 771. This is exclusive of any age of accounts variable / the data point is taken at a time that's not on or about the 1st of any given month. I've seen this a good number of times at this point to know that 21 points is a solid data point for this exact profile.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

SeanA — Mon, 05 Jan 2026 22:47:32 GMT

I was under the impression it was a 5-10 point impact usually. 21 points is nuts!

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

Thomas_Thumb — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 04:36:43 GMT

A hard inquiry is typically 4-8 points.

I remain skeptical of the 21 points being dedicated to an HP. I suspect the increase includes a nominal 15 point boost associated with the new revolving account reaching 1 year age. Otherwise, score should have jumped previously at the 1st of the month.

It is possible a monthly score pull by a CC issuer would have encompassed both events (HP anniversary date and newest account reaching 1 year).

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

BrutalBodyShots — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 03:29:51 GMT

@Thomas_Thumb wrote:

I remain skeptical of the 21 points being dedicated to an HP.

@Thomas_Thumb this has been tested cleanly at least a half dozen times at this point.

Here's another way to verify the test. One takes on a single hard inquiry for their first credit card. In 6 months time they optimize utilization and their first credit score generates. If the hard inquiry is on TU, their debut score will be 750. If the hard inquiry is on EX or EQ, their debut score for TU8 will be 771. This is conclusive proof that the hard inquiry on TU is impacting that debut score 21 points. And, like I said earlier, this is verifiable on the other end. After 365 days when the hard inquiry becomes unscoreable (if it was on TU) exactly 21 points return in one shot, exclusive of any aging metrics or scorecard reassignment. That's the beauty of hard inquiries that come during times of the month outside of the 1st, as aging metrics change days or weeks before the hard inquiry becomes unscoreable. This makes it super easy to grab clean data points, which is why we've seen quite a few at this point.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

Thomas_Thumb — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 04:35:12 GMT

If aging of the account and inquiry are not somehow linked, I would expect to see an independent score boost for the new account aging. Does that occur?

Did the other CRAs see any score boost when youngest account hit its anniversary date or upon rollover to the 1st prior to the anniversary date? Are these profiles getting 3B scores through EX or Fico monitoring where trigger events pull 3B Fico 8 scores?

I don't recall seeing this type of data. If it exists on myfico, can you provide a link to it? Otherwise, if there an external table of 3B scores vs time, can you copy-paste?

Is the data suggesting lack of a new account penalty for a single card profile?

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

BrutalBodyShots — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 05:39:08 GMT

@Thomas_Thumb, yes, score impacts are seen with aging exclusive of the inquiry at 365 days of age. I cannot recall if gains were realized related to aging at 6m or 12m, but they were there. I want to say it was 9 points; TU8 to 759 and then to 780 once the inquiry became unscoreable. On Credit Rebels, Cassie did a case study of a friend or relative of hers that opened their first credit (card) account ever. She charted her score progress from the debut score of 750 on TU8 (inquiry on TU) all the way up to 3 years when the score was (I believe) 792 before scorecard reassignment. Many people don't think a 792 FICO 8 score is possible with a 1 card (account) profile with less than 3 years of age, but you can't get data points any more clean when talking a single account profile.

I'm not sure about the other bureaus, as I believe only TU8 was being tracked for this particular case study. For the other bureaus I've seen similar 21 point data points for a single (first) inquiry on a new file. I did not see what else happened with those profiles over time though, which is why I only spoke to the 21 point reference in this thread/discussion. The only long (3 years) study I saw with data points provided along the way by Cassie was the one I referenced previously.

No, I don't think the data suggests lack of a new account penalty for a single card profile. What would suggest that? This is only about the scoring impact of a single inquiry on a new file. 21 points. Proven, *cleanly* on both ends of the time it occurred at after it reached 365 days of age. I don't think you can get a more conclusive data point than that. And, what Cassie showed with her case study has been replicated a number of times since because it's so easy to test.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

Thomas_Thumb — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 16:08:14 GMT

Sorry, not buying this one. Another factor is in play. I still suspect it is the one and only account reaching 1 year age. I surmise the data being charted is 1B from the regular monthly credit card pull update.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

BrutalBodyShots — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 16:38:28 GMT

@Thomas_Thumb I'm not sure what not to "buy" here. The data points can't get any more clean.

If someone takes on an inquiry on (say) the 10th of a given month, that account will be 1 year in age on the 1st of the same month the following year. Agree? So, if someone pulls their credit score on (say) the 7th of the month the following year, the account would already be 12 months in age and the score gain realized related to that fact at that time. This completely isolates the impact of the inquiry becoming unscoreable a few days later when the 365 day mark passes.

How can you not "buy" that? Explain. The test truly cannot get any cleaner than that. The "other factor" you mention here is not at play. It's incredibly simple to isolate.

You also failed to comment on what I said regarding the placement of the hard inquiry on TU vs another bureau. If it's on TU, debut score when optimized is 750. On a different bureau, the debut score is 771. If not for the inquiry being worth 21 points on TU8, what else could it possibly be? We're talking a single account profile with no other noise at all. Explain your take on that.

Also, this isn't new/profound information. You make it sound like you've never heard this, when I'm quite certain you've read the Credit Scoring Primer. Within the primer right at the beginning of the "iquiries" section, literally the first sentence, BM discloses Cassie's finding:

"- HPs may count for 0-20 FICO® points each, though they are typically <5 points on mature/thick profiles, and higher for young/thin cards.
(CreditRebel Cassie experienced a 20 point drop for one inquiry on a young/thin scorecard. Proof. )"

That was back in 2021 or so and the same test has been replicated multiple times. I know you're aware that hobbyists like BM and Cassie wouldn't report something if it wasn't clean. AND, after reporting it if it was tested again many times (it was) and a different result was arrived at, BM would have amended the CSP to reflect that.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

Thomas_Thumb — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 17:21:50 GMT

That data has no score pre HP. So, nothing to see on the front end.

Unfortunately no data comparing all 3 or even 2 CRAs - 1 with the HP against 1 or 2 without the HP. Was hoping to see spikes on all 3 CRAs for the account reaching 1 year age and then a spike on a close, but different date exclusive to the CRA with the HP (no corresponding increase with the other CRAs).

That would help me rule out a potential bundling of scoring factors.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

BrutalBodyShots — Tue, 06 Jan 2026 19:39:29 GMT

@Thomas_Thumb wrote:
That data has no score pre HP. So, nothing to see on the front end.

@Thomas_Thumb , why would you need to see that? You still aren't addressing my question. I'll ask it again another way:

Cornelius opens a first credit card and takes a HP on TU. In 6 months, he generates his first TU FICO 8 score with a reported balance of $10 on their $1000 limit card. His debut score is 750.

Rupert opens a first credit card and takes a HP on EX. In 6 months, he generates his first TU FICO 8 score with a reported balance of $10 on their $1000 limit card. His debut score is 771.

What aside from the hard inquiry here on this single account profile could be the reason for the 21 point variance between scores?

Then, the following year after score gains are realized from the credit card reaching a year in age (and a score pulled to quantify that gain) the initial hard inquiry becomes unscoreable. A TU FICO 8 score is pulled both before and after that date (a day or two apart) and the score gain is exactly 21 points. How, in your opinion, would that not be conclusive evidence of the value of the inquiry? I'd also add that the negative reason code for recently applied for credit is what dropped off at the time of the 21 point gain.

You don't need data "comparing all 3 or even 2 CRAs" as this data point has nothing to do with the other CRAs. It's an isolated data point that's noise free with respect to the single CRA. Bringing up other CRAs only deflects from the focus here. If you have a dirty credit file because of one negative item present on your TU report, the item is removed and you report a (say) 72 point gain, why would I need to look at your EX/EQ reports or scores? It has nothing to do with the 72 point gain related to the negative item coming off of your TU report.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

Thomas_Thumb — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 01:56:05 GMT

I need to see the data requested. I think it is far more likely for 2 attributes (such as HP and 1 year account age) to be bundled and produce a net 21 point gain than to see a 21 point increase due solely to a single HP aging off.

I can see how your data supports your conclusion. However, that conclusion is too radical for me without multi CRA score data backing it up.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

BrutalBodyShots — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 02:55:06 GMT

@Thomas_Thumb I feel like you aren't listening one bit here and are conveniently ignoring the questions I'm asking you. This has been the case throughout our conversation. As an example, I asked you in my previous comment at the time first FICO scores were generated at 6 months (no account aging hitting a year):

What aside from the hard inquiry here on this single account profile could be the reason for the 21 point variance between scores?

What was your response? Crickets.

Aging metrics improve on the first of the month. If the first of the month passes and the account in question is already a year in age and a score gain realized, there can be no further gains several weeks later "bundled" with the hard inquiry becoming unscoreable at 365 days of age. Weeks later the only variable in question is the inquiry becoming unscorable, not that and a change to aging metrics. I know that you are smart enough to understand that, so it's silly that you're being so stubborn with this for whatever reason.

Nothing is radical at all. You are just chosing not to respond to the questions I'm posing, which to me speaks volumes.

Anyway, I'm done with this conversation. I thought you were someone that appreciated clean data points related to FICO scoring, but evidently not if it's something presented to you that you weren't aware of.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

Thomas_Thumb — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 03:10:02 GMT

Yes, it is unfortunatel rigorous data is lacking. It all hinges on a sole premise.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

BrutalBodyShots — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 03:15:16 GMT

Once again, failure to answer the question.

There is no "rigorous" data to speak if. It's literally a single variable data point, of the easiest on earth to test with a profile that contains 1 account and 6 months of credit history.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

Thomas_Thumb — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 05:34:28 GMT

All we have is a premise that a score increase observed happening at or around 365 days must be solely related to a HP. You have AoYA, AAoA and AoOA all reaching 1 year at the same time. Their aging can clearly influence score. Does the new account opening align with the HP? Were scores updated daily and if so is the influence of these other factors observable and differentiated? A score pulled today can be influenced by previous events. Bundled events.

Conclusive data would be seeing the score change on the CRA with the HP but no change on the other CRAs. Unfortunately, no before/after 3B data is available.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

BrutalBodyShots — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 16:11:25 GMT

For a THIRD time @Thomas_Thumb you are ignoring what I asked in Post 12. I'll refer you back to that. The question I posed to you in that comment has nothing to do with what happens in a year. It discusses the debut score with 6 months of credit history. One profile has the hard inquiry, one doesn't. The one with the hard inquiry debuts with a 750 score. The other doesn't have the hard inquiry and debuts with a 771 score. If the only variable here is the inquiry present or not present, how can there be any other factor that is score-impacting 21 points here? I'm quite sure you know the answer, which is why you've conveniently ignored the question 3 times now.

And I've already explained to you multiple times that the score pull is being performed cleanly. You continuously seem to be ignoring what I'm saying so that you can "disagree" with the data. I already told you several times that the inquiry becoming unscoreable is being determined cleanly from potential aging metrics? How? Because a score pull is being generated on the report data AFTER aging metrics (yes, AoYA, AAoA, AoOA, all of them you mentioned), after the 1st of the month, where an initial score gain is already realized. Then, a week or two or three later when the inquiry becomes unscoreable in THE SAME MONTH (aging metrics cannot further change) the score increase realized is exactly 21 points... which matches the 21 points difference between the two debut scores with/without a hard inquiry present that you refuse to comment on.

21 points on both ends, both clean data points.

"Conclusive data would be seeing the score change on the CRA with the HP but no change on the other CRAs. Unfortunately, no before/after 3B data is available."

No, that's one way to verify conclusive data. Another way is to see the score impact of an event at the start, then the score impact at the end. If the score impact exactly matches on both ends, you have verification.

Example 1: Cornelius raises his aggregate utilization from 7% to 14% and realizes a score drop of 18 points on EQ8. He then drops his utilization from 14% to 7% and realizes a score gain of 18 points on EQ8. Assuming there are no other variables at play (aging metrics thresholds, etc) this would be conclusive data that the 18 points lost/gained were from the movement between 7% and 14% aggregate utilization. One doesn't need to see TU8 and EX8 alongside EQ8 here to know what happened.

Example 2: Rupert has a collection introduced to his Experian file and his EX8 score drops 82 points. A week later, the collection is removed from his Experian file and his EX8 increases 82 points. With nothing else changing in between, Rupert can with conviction state that the collection was "worth" 82 points on EX8. Rupert does not need to see TU8 or EQ8 to make that determination.

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

Thomas_Thumb — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 16:44:51 GMT

Where is the after data point for the 2nd CRA that shows the offset between the 2 dropping to 0 points from 21, assuming initial the offset was all due to the HP? Fico scores between CRAs with identical files have been known to differ by 20 points and more.

Do you have access to the data table showing score tracking over time? Is score available for two CRAs or just one?

Re: Any single inquiry impact > 21 points on FICO 8?

BrutalBodyShots — Wed, 07 Jan 2026 16:41:59 GMT

They've actually been known to differ as much as 32 points, but good thing that doesn't matter here. Again, you're missing the point. This is about a single CRA. You don't need another CRA here. JUST TransUnion.

I'll dumb it down even further without mentioning EQ or another CRA since I can tell you're just going to continue to get hung up on that after 3 times of asking you the same question, so here we go.

Cornelius opens the card taking a hard inquiry on TU. In 6 months time his score with optimized utilization is 750 for FICO 8.

Rupert opens the card without taking a hard inquiry on TU. In 6 months time his score with optimized utilization is 771 for FICO 8.

No variances between CRAs here. Strait up data with two otherwise identical profiles with only TU here. No other variables aside from the presence/absence of the hard inquriry. 21 point variance between debut scores. What is your explanation, @Thomas_Thumb?