topic Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator. in Understanding FICO® Scoring

Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

Anonymous — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 21:16:05 GMT

Hey everyone,

When browsing the net I have found a really accurate FICO estimator (at least for 2 people). I thought it was too good to be true, but I plugged in the information, and out popped my current FICO score range for TU and EQ. It is a range like 644-700. I plugged my wifes info in and hers too was with the accurate range.

Give it a try and see if your esitmated FICO range is what your actual range is and post the results! I am curious if everyone else would get their FICO scores in their current ranges as well. If so I will use this tool to keep a track when I do not get alerts for a score change.

Here is the link. http://www.realtor.com/mortgage/Calculators/CreditScore.aspx

After you click get scores at the bottom there is a link that says "Get a detailed analysis of your estimated credit score". It will give you a break down on of the points of the FICO scoring. Like what type of points are for UTIL and INQ, ect, and how many points you have in that category so you know where you need to work harder.

Let me know if you have success with this as well.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

Anonymous — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 03:29:12 GMT

That's interesting. It estimated a little high for me.

One thing it doesn't seem to take into consideration is the number of late payments, plus whether they're 30, 60, 90, etc.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

llecs — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 05:48:52 GMT

Unfortunately, they are using FICO's name to promote their sponsor, freescore.com, which has nothing to do with FICO scores. The estimator was too generic (as compared to Bankrate's), and if you click on the next page to see their analysis, you'll see that their score range is 350-850 which isn't the same range that FICO uses. FICO uses a 300-850 range. At the bottom, you'll see that it is underwritten by TransUnion Interactive which are the same folks who put together TrueCredit. TrueCredit did advertise once a score range of 350-850 and that's a FAKO called a TransRisk score and now TC uses a Vantage score (501-990). I suspect their estimator is for a TransRisk vs. a guesstimated FICO.

My results were also on the low side with a range below my current FICO scores. But my TU TransRisk score did fall in the middle of that range (from CreditKarma).

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

Anonymous — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 07:35:44 GMT

It estimated a little high for me too, about 25-35 points.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

Anonymous — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 16:20:58 GMT

Aren't the words "accurate" and "estimator" completely opposite of one another?

From a BK years ago to:
9/09 EX pulled by lender 802
3/10 EQ- 800
4/10 TU -772

You can do the same thing with hard work

Credit Scoring 101
Common Abbreviations
Frequently Requested Threads
Whats In Your FICO Score

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

Imhotrodcrazy — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 21:31:56 GMT

On the high side for me by 25 points.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

fused — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 22:50:30 GMT

The estimator was spot on for me.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

smallfry — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 23:12:57 GMT

I have to admit that for as little info as they asked for they got pretty close for me.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

GregB — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 14:04:48 GMT

It came up with 733-783 for me. Current actual FICO is 698 & 702. That doesn't seem very close to me. It is close to my EX Plus Score which is currently 762.

It seems way too generic.

I changed some of the factors to match some previous reports and it stayed way high. It is giving me all points available for each section except amount of debt. If I bring that down to $10,000 it says it is giving me 265 out of 255 possible but the score still totals 850. Must be "new" math.

I would say it is worth something and is better than a guess. Very good to see what negative info can do to a score.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

Macroman — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 16:51:23 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
Aren't the words "accurate" and "estimator" completely opposite of one another?

From a BK years ago to:
9/09 EX pulled by lender 802
3/10 EQ- 800
4/10 TU -772

You can do the same thing with hard work

Credit Scoring 101
Common Abbreviations
Frequently Requested Threads
Whats In Your FICO Score

If you study some statistics you'll find that the terms are completely consistent.

An estimate is an approximation. It is not expected to exactly match the value that it's estimating, but to be accurate it is expected to vary from that according to an acceptable distribution.

FICO itself is a numerical estimate of your creditworthiness. People with high scores are expected to meet their obligations a high percentage of the time. Low scorers default more often.

No estimator always hits it's target. An accurate estimator is close to the true value a high percentage of the time.

Considering the large number of FICO scores out there including the FICO 98, FICO 04 and FICO 08 versions of all 3 reports and specialized versions of all for auto and mortgage loans most of which are not available to the general public evaluating an estimator like this one against the lender models is difficult.

The best information that we have is generally these scores move together and that we can improve the scores by appropriately managing our accounts. The true FICO scores are the best estimate available of what the lender will see with a loan application but there is no guarantee of an exact match.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

haulingthescoreup — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 16:59:34 GMT

775 - 825 for me. I suppose so; I'm down on the lower end of that.

It didn't ask how many CL's had lates on them, which is one of the reasons why my scores aren't higher.

btw, the site doesn't claim to be a FICO score estimator. It's just a "credit score" estimator. So I suppose the legal department at FICO can settle back down.

It's from the fine folks who bring you TrueCredit FAKO's, which for me have always been completely wacko.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

Macroman — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 17:15:49 GMT

I checked mine, I am in the upper part of they're score range.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

MattH — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 02:52:29 GMT

Hmm, the one at Bankrate with which I have long been familiar estimates a range of 765-815 for me; the one at realtor.com estimates a range of 800 to 850 for me. The Bankrate one comes somewhat closer to my actual scores, perhaps partly because the Bankrate one comes from the actual Fico people and also asks more questions.

There is a longstanding business relationship between Bankrate and Fico; each often has links to the other. And I have found both to have high-quality information.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

RobertEG — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 06:14:11 GMT

Credit score simulators are good, but for only one thing.

They provide sound advice in weighing the relative impact of various actions you might want to take, and help you plot a path of action.

So the have their merit.

But no simulator is really capable of any accurate prediction of specific scores. If they are, then Brother Fair Isaac would be out of most of their business.

All credit scoring algorithms, regardless of whether they be FICO or others, are based on closely guarded trade secrets. They are totally proprietary.

As trade secrets, they are subject to reverse engineering, which is not a violation of trade secret law.

Anyone who has a trade secret scoring algorithm that is making them money would be insane to provide any simulator of their algorithm that would assist anyone in their reverse engineering efforts. Thus, the FICO simulator does not, for exxample, let you put in data on multiple categores of scorng at the same time (e.g., payment history, % util, lenght of credit, credit mix), and evaluate the overall affect on scoring. That just wont happen.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

MattH — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 12:23:41 GMT

@RobertEG wrote:
Credit score simulators are good, but for only one thing.
They provide sound advice in weighing the relative impact of various actions you might want to take, and help you plot a path of action.
So the have their merit.
But no simulator is really capable of any accurate prediction of specific scores. If they are, then Brother Fair Isaac would be out of most of their business.
All credit scoring algorithms, regardless of whether they be FICO or others, are based on closely guarded trade secrets. They are totally proprietary.
As trade secrets, they are subject to reverse engineering, which is not a violation of trade secret law.
Anyone who has a trade secret scoring algorithm that is making them money would be insane to provide any simulator of their algorithm that would assist anyone in their reverse engineering efforts. Thus, the FICO simulator does not, for exxample, let you put in data on multiple categores of scorng at the same time (e.g., payment history, % util, lenght of credit, credit mix), and evaluate the overall affect on scoring. That just wont happen.

Very true. Of course any large lender can get a pretty darned good idea how various factors affect FICO scores by simply crunching their own vast databases.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

RobertEG — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 06:39:04 GMT

Fair Isaac does not maintain a full database of current consumer credit information. That is not their business. Neither does any individual creditor.Creditors (voluntarily) report to a CRA, not to each other. So all one indiv creditor has, no matter how large they are, are only the records for their individual customers.

That is why they pay money to CRAs to get scoring based on a nationwide database of all consumers.

Fair Issac does not directly score you. They license the tool to score you to the holders of the data. FICO scores you get are not generated back at Fair Isaac, they are generated directly by the licensee of the FICO scoring tool. And when they license use ot the proprietary scoring algorithms, they are not provided the details of its workings.

REverse engineering of FICO scoring is not easy to accomplish, as exhibited by its many, many years as the first, and now foremost, source of creditor requests for consumer credit scores. When the Vabtage scoring algorithms were initially marketed some years ago, which was a joint effort between the three CRAs to produce an algorithm to compete with Fair Isaac, it resulted in legal action between them for trade secret appropriation. Vantage scoring is now derisively referred to as "FAKO" scorng, and most lendors never bought into it.

If the three major CRAs could not block the FICO juggernaut, I doubt that any individual will.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

marty56 — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 19:24:37 GMT

@fused wrote:
The estimator was spot on for me.

The simulator said with a BK just over 1 year old, my credit score could be 780. 120 day late in the same time could net me an 800. Or 830 if the late is over 2 years old. Don't know about the BK part but IMHO they assume every late is a 30 day.

LOL it's a FAKO FICO score estimater and like most FAKO scores, worthless.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

marty56 — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 19:30:50 GMT

LOL also the programmers did a poor job of data validation. I mentioned that I got my first account 1 year ago and was late more than 2 years ago and it calculated a value for my credit score.

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

Anonymous — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 08:22:57 GMT

Hey dudes and dudettes,

Remember this site has a lovely (and truly FICO focused) estimator. This is the real deal. I like it better than the ScoreWatch estimator because you can play around with it a little more:

myfico score estimator

Re: Found a really accurate FICO estimator.

BungalowMo — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 20:49:26 GMT

hahaha...the Realtor estimator told me my EQ score (punched in info from my last fico report) should be between 731 & 781 ---actual - 687! (WAY off!)

Their TU estimate.... 716 - 766...actual - 753 (much closer)