topic Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results in Understanding FICO® Scoring

FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

lolabelle — Sun, 27 May 2012 16:36:48 GMT

I was just playing with the FICO Score Simulator. My Equifax score is currently 734. I simulated my "best action" and was shown a range between 754-794 for paying down my revolving credit balance by 90-100% over the next 24 months. Then I plugged in a payment for the full amount of my revolving credit balance and was shown a range of 734-754. Weird. Is this thing just really not worth much or am I missing something?

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

Anonymous — Sun, 27 May 2012 16:56:49 GMT

Too many variables to make a more accurate prediction. For instance one of your creditors could decide to chase your balance and thus make it appear your util or available credit is still low. Also there is the fact that the higher your score is the harder it becomes to get more points. I have read about people hitting 800 in a few years and then spending a few more years to gain a mere 10 more pts. It is like losing weight, the closer you get to your goal, the harder it gets.

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

lolabelle — Sun, 27 May 2012 17:16:31 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
Too many variables to make a more accurate prediction. For instance one of your creditors could decide to chase your balance and thus make it appear your util or available credit is still low. Also there is the fact that the higher your score is the harder it becomes to get more points. I have read about people hitting 800 in a few years and then spending a few more years to gain a mere 10 more pts. It is like losing weight, the closer you get to your goal, the harder it gets.

Too many variables is a good point. It just seems odd to me that manually inputting the "best action" results in a drastically different output, you know? I was actually surprised that the "best action" had to do with my utilization in the first place, as my utilization is already pretty low. By the way, I'm not sure what "chase your balance" means?

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

Scamp — Sun, 27 May 2012 17:19:49 GMT

@lolabelle wrote:
@Anonymous wrote:
Too many variables to make a more accurate prediction. For instance one of your creditors could decide to chase your balance and thus make it appear your util or available credit is still low. Also there is the fact that the higher your score is the harder it becomes to get more points. I have read about people hitting 800 in a few years and then spending a few more years to gain a mere 10 more pts. It is like losing weight, the closer you get to your goal, the harder it gets.
Too many variables is a good point. It just seems odd to me that manually inputting the "best action" results in a drastically different output, you know? I was actually surprised that the "best action" had to do with my utilization in the first place, as my utilization is already pretty low. By the way, I'm not sure what "chase your balance" means?

Chasing the balance is what it's called when creditors keep lowering your credit limit to just above your current balance, every time you make a payment.

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

lolabelle — Sun, 27 May 2012 17:23:36 GMT

@Scamp wrote:
@lolabelle wrote:
@Anonymous wrote:
Too many variables to make a more accurate prediction. For instance one of your creditors could decide to chase your balance and thus make it appear your util or available credit is still low. Also there is the fact that the higher your score is the harder it becomes to get more points. I have read about people hitting 800 in a few years and then spending a few more years to gain a mere 10 more pts. It is like losing weight, the closer you get to your goal, the harder it gets.
Too many variables is a good point. It just seems odd to me that manually inputting the "best action" results in a drastically different output, you know? I was actually surprised that the "best action" had to do with my utilization in the first place, as my utilization is already pretty low. By the way, I'm not sure what "chase your balance" means?
Chasing the balance is what it's called when creditors keep lowering your credit limit to just above your current balance, every time you make a payment.

Wow. I had no idea that happened. That's craptacular behavior.

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

Anonymous — Sun, 27 May 2012 17:26:41 GMT

The best thing and thing that within your control is your util and pay on time. Util and payments combined equal 65% of your score!

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

marty56 — Sun, 27 May 2012 18:19:29 GMT

IMHO the score simulator is derog aware so if you had a derog that was set to fall off in 2 years, that might explain the difference.

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

lolabelle — Sun, 27 May 2012 20:11:15 GMT

No, I have nothing bad on there. 8% utilization at the time of the score pull, and slightly under 6 years AAoA.

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

Anonymous — Sun, 27 May 2012 20:13:46 GMT

Well that is the reason why... Your util is already so low that eliminating it will not give you much of a boost. If you simulate making payments on time for 2 years I bet you get the same result.

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

lolabelle — Mon, 28 May 2012 00:52:58 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
Well that is the reason why... Your util is already so low that eliminating it will not give you much of a boost. If you simulate making payments on time for 2 years I bet you get the same result.

That's what was confusing about it, though - when I simulated paying it down to 0-1% utilization, I had the lower range. When I simulate paying the same amount over 2 years, I get the higher range. I always pay everything on time anyway, though, so it's puzzling how paying down my utilization over time would be a factor that raises my score significantly when paying my utilization down the same amount in a lump sum doesn't. The only thing that makes a little sense is that, assuming no new credit, my AAoA will be better in 2 years. But it didn't seem to be making that point. Anyway, not a big deal - but curious. I just paid off 50% of my utilization and am going to start score tracking after those cards report, so it'll be interesting to see what actually happens!

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

Anonymous — Mon, 28 May 2012 01:11:19 GMT

I've gone back and forth with a few simulators and ended up wondering the same thing. Here's my best guess: Paying down balances over time is valued more highly by simulators because they're also factoring in increased account age.

That could be totally wrong but was the only thing I could come up with that made sense.

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

marty56 — Mon, 28 May 2012 10:19:22 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
Paying down balances over time is valued more highly by simulators because they're also factoring in increased account age.

This brings up an interesting point.

Do you ever max out your age points? How old is old enough?

My AAoA is 12 years and I haven't had new credit for over 2 years so will paying over time really get me more points by doing so.

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

Anonymous — Mon, 28 May 2012 11:04:09 GMT

@ Marty,

Is 12 the max?

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

marty56 — Mon, 28 May 2012 11:15:01 GMT

IMHO I think it would be much less, maybe 6 years.

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

Anonymous — Mon, 28 May 2012 11:23:50 GMT

I read here that it was 12. My average age is is around 11 years and there's still a little bump as the months move forward.

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

Anonymous — Mon, 28 May 2012 12:17:17 GMT

Just use fico estimator for more accurate results. Fico estimator is great for what if scenarios.

Re: FICO Score Simulator - inconsistent results

Anonymous — Wed, 30 May 2012 01:30:21 GMT

@lolabelle wrote:
I was just playing with the FICO Score Simulator. My Equifax score is currently 734. I simulated my "best action" and was shown a range between 754-794 for paying down my revolving credit balance by 90-100% over the next 24 months. Then I plugged in a payment for the full amount of my revolving credit balance and was shown a range of 734-754. Weird. Is this thing just really not worth much or am I missing something?

Your forgetting to take into account the aging of your accounts. Just paying your cards off tomorrow doesn't make them 2 years older. Do you have new-ish accounts? I'm pretty sure that there's an explanation on that page stating that it took into account the aging of your accounts. Okay double checked "So your score simulation took into account both your lower balances and the aging of your credit history."