topic Re: Question about Score Reverse Engineering in Understanding FICO® Scoring

Question about Score Reverse Engineering

Neblett — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 19:58:07 GMT

I just did some math, and I'm wondering if I have any kind of case here.

My FICO score as of 6-15-07 was 668.

On 6-21, my score dropped 13 points down to 665, due to a hard pull inquiry - I applied for a Best Buy store card.

On 6-27, my score dropped 33 points down to 622, due to the fact that my Target card account reported a history of past dues/late pays, a collection account reposted to the account, and a paid in full installment account changed some basic information (this last thing is a positive item and actually didn't alter my score).

On 6-29, my score dropped 37 points down to 585, due to two hard pull inquiries for the COAF and RoadLoans auto loans that I applied for on 6-16.

On 7-3, my score went up 10 points to 595, because a new positive account reported to my file.

On 7-6, my score went up 6 points to 601, because a couple of information changes and a positive account was added, but the inquiries from 6-21 and 6-29 were deleted from my account (believe it or not, CSC just deleted them - AND the rest of my inquiry history - while they were investigating some other inquiries which were outdated). So, at this point I have NO hard inquiries at all on my EQ report!

Now, here's my question - and it has to do with reverse engineering of scores. If they eliminated the inquiries and other negative aspects of my file that dropped my score 50 points (13 on 6-21 plus 37 on 6-29), why wouldn't my score be UP 50 points at the present time?

What I mean is, if those inquiries had never dropped my score, but the Target and collection account still posted as they did on 6-27, then shouldn't the following be the way it should look?

6-15: 668
6-21: 668 (No Best Buy inquiry - therefore, no 13 pt. drop)
6-27: 635 (33 pt. drop - Target and collection account)
6-29: 635 (No car loan inquiries - therefore, no 37 pt. drop)
7-3: 645 (10 pt. increase)
7-6: 651 (6 pt. increase)

Is this logical?

Anyone?

Re: Question about Score Reverse Engineering

MidnightVoice — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 20:03:02 GMT

I think you are laboring under two delusions:

1 that is it possible to understand FICO scoring

2 that FICO scoring is actually logical.

Re: Question about Score Reverse Engineering

Neblett — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 20:06:14 GMT

That's my fear.

Re: Question about Score Reverse Engineering

MidnightVoice — Sun, 08 Jul 2007 20:19:23 GMT

I just think there are so many variables it is guess work. Ageing of accounts, ageing of baddies, slow and fast updating, everything. I think one can make ball park guesses, but that is about that.

And time is your friend if you keep a clean sheet and have some idea of how the game is played

Re: Question about Score Reverse Engineering

Anonymous — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 00:44:25 GMT

the problem is that it is an algorithm for which we have no way of knowing all of the factors that are taken into account. sure, we know some generalities, like the percentages of our scores that some very broad categories make up; however, we start getting into problems in reverse engineering the algorithm when taking into account factors like scorecards, and especially the interrelationships of those broad categories. for instance, it is quite possible (and likely, imo) that the payment history factor is affected by certain criteria in the age of accounts which is affected by other criteria in utilization, etc. certainly these are factors that cannot be reverse engineered because first we would have to identify the relationships and then we would need access to the vast amount of data that is used in the algorithm, i.e. individual credit reports. as we all know, that data is impossible to obtain. the good thing is that there are a lot of folks who have collaborated and gained enough knowledge to provide general info on factors that help and hurt, but i believe it is impossible to ever reverse engineer the process to any reasonable degree of certainty. let's not even talk about the fact that the algorithm is likely ever-changing.

Re: Question about Score Reverse Engineering

Anonymous — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 19:34:03 GMT

Even though I've had some weird FICO score effects, I do think FICO scoring makes sense -- it's just extremely complicated, and you're scored relative to other people, too.

Re: Question about Score Reverse Engineering

RobertEG — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 23:18:45 GMT

I have been working on an extensive Excel spreadsheet that simulates current and future FICO scoring based on various factors that are relevevant to me, and I would be glad to share it for comments with anyone who would like to take a look at it.

Re: Question about Score Reverse Engineering

Anonymous — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 23:39:40 GMT

i would like to see it.

Re: Question about Score Reverse Engineering

Anonymous — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 00:06:57 GMT

count me int too

Re: Question about Score Reverse Engineering

RobertEG — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 08:12:22 GMT

If you would like a copy, send me an email at robertegarrett@netscape.net.

Re: Question about Score Reverse Engineering

Anonymous — Tue, 10 Jul 2007 16:31:18 GMT

Hey Robert, probably not the best idea to post your email address. Just ask people to PM you if they are interested.

Good on ya for trying to reverse engineer FICO, but I think it's not a linear formula that can be plotted on an Excel spreadsheet. As dog explains, the algorithm is based on an inter-relationship of factors.

Re: Question about Score Reverse Engineering

RobertEG — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 02:17:18 GMT

Yeah, Mas,I agree.

But I have no problem with posting my email. My efforts are not intended to reverse engineer all of the intracacies of the mysterious FICO algorithm, only to show the relative effects of each, and their interaction. For short-term projections, I feel that my efforts are much more useful than the limited fico sim currently available, which restricts projections to only the effect of a limted number or factors, and does not take into account the result of one category on another.. Check my work out and give me feedback. Its just a start, but more than is currently available.