topic Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data... in Understanding FICO® Scoring

Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

Anonymous — Wed, 20 May 2015 08:58:41 GMT

So, my score went up by 4 points today, to 712 on Experian, as reported on the Experian website.

At first this confused me -- nothing happened today. I monitor all three bureaus, I can pull them daily, and I pulled them all yesterday and then pulled them all again today. Nothing changed. No balance posted. I have no derogatories or late payments to age off -- my file is very simple, it's just some accounts, all newer than a year, and some inquiries. Nothing else in my file.

So I thought this was FICO randomness but I have always been able to explain every other change in my score, so I did some digging. I found the HP my landlord did when I rented my place aged to six months TODAY. Yesterday on Experian I had 5 inquiries all of which were newer than 6 months (and two more that are 7-9 months old). Today that landlord HP aged to 6 months and my score went up by 4 points.

So it looks like either an inquiry aging to 6 months is worth 4 points, or perhaps it's reducing from 5 to 4 such inquiries that helped my score.

Just thought I'd share what I noticed.

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

Anonymous — Thu, 21 May 2015 14:31:35 GMT

IMO, most likely reason for the jump was your AAoA went up 1 month.

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

Anonymous — Thu, 21 May 2015 17:28:37 GMT

Hmm. My spreadsheet says AAoA is not likely the factor -- my AAoA went from 4 months 22 days to 4 months 23 days. Doesn't seem like that would bump things.

HOWEVER, your comment made me look at account age more closely and you might be on to something. It looks like my oldest account rounded the 9 month bend that day as well. So the change in score might be from the oldest account hitting the 9 month mark?

If so that's still interesting data.

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

Anonymous — Thu, 21 May 2015 17:53:15 GMT

OK, and now there's more evidence that this is indeed an account age issue and not an inquiries thing.

Today my Equifax score increased 12 points on a small balance increase (Amazon store card updates balance after every purchase it seems).

The inquiry that aged to 6 months only appeared on my Experian report, and not on my Equifax report, so it's clear that the change with Equifax is not realated to inquiries, and since the AAoA in question did not hit any month mark (just aged a few days) it would seem to strongly imply this is the result of my oldest account hitting the 9 month mark.

So, what this seems to imply is that your oldest account hitting 9 months is a significant event. I wonder if every 3 months is significant -- 6, 9, 12, 18, etc.

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

Revelate — Fri, 22 May 2015 02:09:58 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
IMO, most likely reason for the jump was your AAoA went up 1 month.

AAOA is rounded down to nearest year in the calculations.

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

Anonymous — Fri, 22 May 2015 02:12:49 GMT

My score shot up over 20 points when my inquiries were 6 months old. Who knows, maybe we'll get another when they age to 12 months.

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

rlx01 — Fri, 22 May 2015 05:46:31 GMT

INQs hurt less at 6 months and then stop hurting at 12 months.

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

Anonymous — Fri, 22 May 2015 09:15:13 GMT

The number of inquiries plays a role as well. I lost 2 pts on TU for my last inq 4 on EX and exactly 0 on EQ. nothing else changed (each had updated within 2 days for abalance change prior to that inq). There is obviously some sort of metric that values an inq, BUT each inq is not as valuable as the one that came before it. The 47th inq on a report would not do the same damage as the first. (Look at some of the people with 60 inquiries.) The inverse says that if you have 1 inq it may have cost you (just to toss a number out there) 8 pts. At 6 months maybe you get 5 back. At 8 months 1 more. etc. But if you have say 10 inq all at various stages of getting closer to costing you 0, each one matters fractionally less each day. So you may not have gotten 4 back for that reason. Not to mention, if you have cards reporting 0 balances you don't get an update for each time it posts, so just another OK for a zero balance month may have played a part in some of those 4 pts. Even if every one of us got an update literally every time our scores changed (not just on the triggering events like we get now) we would still fail to recreate the algorithm just because there are so many variables that could potentially knock us off track.

For example, I believe that one card reporting 3% is my sweet spot. BUT I have 3 cards that close the same day. IF my discover which is the one I let show a balance reports just ahead of cap1 and BOA one month, I could be mislead into thinking that month 5% worked worse. the next month BOA reports my 0 balance, then discover then CAP1. and my 3% balance looks better, but its because I got another OK in before the balance change triggered the update. Then the next month BOA AND Cap1 beat discover which reported 8% and I got another boost. The data doesnt show to me... they all report the same day, but so even with monitoring my actual reports, I have no way of knowing which hit the system first.

As much as I would love to know the nuts and bolts (just because I enjoy crazy weird maths) without having a billion actuarial tables and some serious computing power anecdotal data points make a very limited argument for calling any individual theory plausible. The accepted generalizations we can prove to be mostly true, but specifics make every detail relevant to only your own account and only at that one instant in time.

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

jamie123 — Fri, 22 May 2015 14:50:45 GMT

In my opinion your small point gain is directly related to your credit card aging to 9 months. You get nicked points for every account that is less than 2 years old in FICO calculations. An account isn't fully seasoned in FICO's eyes until it is 2 years old.

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

Anonymous — Fri, 22 May 2015 20:18:20 GMT

@rlx01 wrote:
INQs hurt less at 6 months and then stop hurting at 12 months.

I have heard that and I am looking for data to support that belief, but so far I don't see it. I've got more that will roll over the 6 month mark soon, and I"ll keep watching.

It seems I have strong data to support "something" happening when your oldest card hits 9 months, what happens seems to depend on how many inquiries you have. I saw a bigger gain on my Equifax report (with fewer inquiries) than on my Experian report (with more inquiries).

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

MarineVietVet — Fri, 22 May 2015 21:00:02 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
@rlx01 wrote:
INQs hurt less at 6 months and then stop hurting at 12 months.
I have heard that and I am looking for data to support that belief, but so far I don't see it. I've got more that will roll over the 6 month mark soon, and I"ll keep watching.

It seems I have strong data to support "something" happening when your oldest card hits 9 months, what happens seems to depend on how many inquiries you have. I saw a bigger gain on my Equifax report (with fewer inquiries) than on my Experian report (with more inquiries).

Which part of this do you question?

While nothing that I have ever seen from FICO states that at six months the effect of new inquiries and/or new credit will automatically begin to diminish I have read literally thousands of posts over the years from members that seems to indicate that many, certainly not all, see an upward movement of scores at anywhere from 6-12 months after the newness is somewhat in the rearview mirror.

As always though it's not set in stone and certainly not everyone will see a bump in the 6-12 month time span. Much depends on what else has occured to a credit profile during that time period.

But inquiries do stop hurting at 12 months. This from New Credit: Inquiries remain on your credit report for two years, although FICO® Scores only consider inquiries from the last 12 months.

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

Anonymous — Sun, 24 May 2015 07:03:11 GMT

The part I question is that something happens at exactly the six month mark with respect to an inquiry itself (as opposed perhaps to new account aging).

This doubt is based on watching my own score and not seeing it mage a difference. I haven't got any that are 12 months old yet so I can't comment on that.

I say doubt and question because I haven't seen it.

I certainty did see an account age effect where on the day my oldest account turned 9 months old there was a bump in my score. Interestingly, a lower improvement on EX where I have more inquiries and a smaller bump on EX where I have fewer.

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

Revelate — Sun, 24 May 2015 18:04:58 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
The part I question is that something happens at exactly the six month mark with respect to an inquiry itself (as opposed perhaps to new account aging).

This doubt is based on watching my own score and not seeing it mage a difference. I haven't got any that are 12 months old yet so I can't comment on that.

I say doubt and question because I haven't seen it.

I certainty did see an account age effect where on the day my oldest account turned 9 months old there was a bump in my score. Interestingly, a lower improvement on EX where I have more inquiries and a smaller bump on EX where I have fewer.

My own data (which hasn't been especially tracked as of late) with how flat my scores are over extended periods of time, inquiry count certainly seemed to be a linear step function in terms of penalty based on how many are on my report at any given time: at one point I added one and had one fall out of scoring range and gained / lost precisely the same points according to Scorewatch, but my report was busy at that point so I'm not 100% sold on the datapoint. That's only one person though and it's entirely possible if I'd been a clean bucket that I'd see more marked differences in inquiry aging.

End of the day I don't really worry about it: I know I can hang in the garden for a 1+ years when I need to personally, and after I get a mortgage sorted the odds I really ever have to worry about that again (well, if I move to a different house I guess) are pretty small.

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

NRB525 — Wed, 27 May 2015 12:03:00 GMT

@Anonymous wrote:
@rlx01 wrote:
INQs hurt less at 6 months and then stop hurting at 12 months.
I have heard that and I am looking for data to support that belief, but so far I don't see it. I've got more that will roll over the 6 month mark soon, and I"ll keep watching.

It seems I have strong data to support "something" happening when your oldest card hits 9 months, what happens seems to depend on how many inquiries you have. I saw a bigger gain on my Equifax report (with fewer inquiries) than on my Experian report (with more inquiries).

well, what you have is a nice increase in your score, after being quiet and not apping anything for a month. I would suggest that rather than being a datapoint for a 9 month aging of some specific kind, that there are so many INQ, new accounts, and general hits to your file over the last 9 months that your score is just recovering as all of those work their way off. All those items are gradually aging. Pointing to any one of those things in your file as meaning anything on their own is impossible with so much going on.

Sit tight, and let time work it's magic and the score will continue to climb. FICO likes quiet files that pay their bills on time. Any activity other than paying bills on time roils things up.

Good luck!

Re: Inquiries aging to 6 months -- 4 points? Some data...

Anonymous — Wed, 27 May 2015 17:31:35 GMT

Hey NRB, I agree that it's recovering from activity and that the right move is gardening. My plan is indeed to sit here gardening until score recovers from my app spree, but at the same time, this is the "understanding FICO scoring" subforum, and my goal here is to gather data and develop a better understanding of how these factors impact score.

I suspect every score change must necessarily be related to one of: inquiry date, account opening date, average account age, utilization, a derogatory aging off, etc., and my purpose here is to gather data on how these facotrs actually impact score.

Clearly sitting in the garden and doing nothing at some level is what caused the small increase in score, and you are right there are various things it could be.

However on that particular day there were only two possibilities --- inquiry aging to 6 months, or account age. I had checked my score the day before, and the day after, and there wasn't any change. On that particular day on Experian two things happened -- an account aged to 9 months, and an inqjuiry aged to 6 months. However the inquiry only showed up on Experian, while the score change happened on both Experian and Equifax (I don't know what happened with TU I don't monitor it).

I guess I am working from the assumption/hypothesis that the effects of accounts aging is tied to the account date and triggered on monthly intervals, not linearly throughout the month. My reason for this belief would be that my score is stable day after day and then suddenly moves on a day, and on that day, and it seem sthat the day it changes is a day when something hit an exact month age.