topic Re: accuracy of myfico simulator in General Credit Topics

accuracy of myfico simulator

languedoctor — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 15:20:19 GMT

Let me answer a couple questions up front: I recognize that these simulators can't be overly precise due to fears of someone reverse engineering the scoring formula. Relatedly (is that a word?), they are unrealistic in that they only allow you to vary one parameter (Sometimes two), while in real life there are tons of variables at work. So long-term projections are an educated guess at best.

My question is about the simulator's short term accuracy.

My basic credit profile basically is what it is. A month from now, there will be no new accounts, no new inquiries, no new derogatory marks . . . nothing. The only difference is that I've been reimbursed for a lot of work-related expenses, and I've paid my revolving balances down by $5k.

When I select "pay down balances by [$5000] over [1 month], the EQ projection is 650-690. Can other myfico users vouch for the accuracy of short-term projections like this? I don't care as much about precision. Obviously, 690 would be way better than 650 for mortgage preapproval. I'm more concerned about the possibility of an "out of range" simulation. That is, even when all the paydowns show up on the report, my Beacon5 comes back at 631 or something. That would be . . . annoying.

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

languedoctor — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 15:48:11 GMT

I couldn't find any other specific "tests" of the simulator searching the forum . . . so I'll be sure to report back predicted v actual FICO. It'll only be one data point, but better than nothing...

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

cd2004 — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 16:58:21 GMT

Great question I was wondering the same thing because I have paid about $700 down on cc this month and waiting for it to update. When I choose the option that says pay down $700 over 1 mth it says 650-690 but if I choose pay down $700 of total overall revolving accts it says scored 620-640. I thought both would be the same thing but it gave different scores.

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

ando35 — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 21:01:51 GMT

My guess is no. It told me my score will go up 70 points this year juts by paying bills. Doubt that.

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

languedoctor — Sun, 29 Apr 2012 21:58:31 GMT

Only one way to find out.

Unfortunately, I haven't followed my FICOs that closely since replacing my car last fall. At that point, I was mid-600s across all three, with revolving utilization around 50%

Now, I have a 6month old installment loan (the car), but utilization is lower than it was in the fall - around 35%. Current FICOs (down to 605-610) reflect 90% revolving util from floating work expenses. I'm not counting the inquiry for the car loan, because I've also had a couple drop off.

I dunno how badly that installment line is affecting me, but I've taken my revolving util from 90% (end of March) to about 35% (end of April). If that *doesn't* get me back up to the mid-600s, as the sim projects, I'll actually be really disappointed.

I've got score reports and simulations from EQ and TU98. I'll post accuracy for both when my tri-merge is pulled at the end of May. Now we're up to 2 data points, heh.

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

RobertEG — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 00:42:45 GMT

Yes, intentionally left broad for protection of trade secret information, so of limited use.

However, the simulations are provided by Fair Isaac, and are based on some form of their scoring algorithm, so no one else could do better.

Just know the assumptions going in.

They can accurately project aging, as it simultaneously affects many categories, such as oldest account, average age of accounts, decline of impact of derogs, dropping of inquiries and accts <1yr, etc. without tipping off the scoring of any single item, so I would presume that the effects of aging would be fairly accurate.

With the significant variables in your case being aging and % util, I would assume it might be a better projection than some other scenarios.....

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

bettercreditguy1 — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 03:02:06 GMT

That is because when you pay in full, the debt is gone, (assuming no additional charges). If you make payments, you could pay the minimum due and really stretch it out or you could pay it off in a couple of months, you could be late, charge more, etc. which then would escalate the unpaid balance faster. So the formula factors in some of those unknowns.

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

kjm79 — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 19:14:48 GMT

IME, when playing with the score simulator on myFICO, is that the score change is closer to the lower range of the estimated score range given. IMO I think the simulator works better in the short term vs the "pay down and pay your bills on time for 24 months" best scenario estimate. Way to much can change in 2 years for that to be close to an accurate prediction. I've always used the pay X for X month(s) and have wound up within the stated range, just the lower end of it.

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

languedoctor — Mon, 30 Apr 2012 21:23:10 GMT

Thanks - that's reassuring.

In fact, it's exactly what I'm hoping. I made sure that I paid enough to get the lower end of the simulation a few points above where I thought I absolutely needed to be (640). I figured that the prospect of a, say, 70 point increase (upper range of sim) in one month was probably closer to fantasy than reality . . . though if FICO wants to prove me wrong, I won't complain!

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

golo — Mon, 14 May 2012 14:29:12 GMT

Any updates on this? I'm in the same boat,paid off some CC including a charge off that i suppose was included in the utilz.Also pay my car off,waiting for all that to post hopefully i get an alert,i will post back the results in a week or so in case anybody is interested.Thanks

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

Anonymous — Mon, 14 May 2012 15:55:16 GMT

Fico simulator is terrible for util predictions on short term activity. I find fico estimator from here more accurate

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

languedoctor — Tue, 15 May 2012 13:14:33 GMT

@golo wrote:
Any updates on this? I'm in the same boat,paid off some CC including a charge off that i suppose was included in the utilz.Also pay my car off,waiting for all that to post hopefully i get an alert,i will post back the results in a week or so in case anybody is interested.Thanks

I'll be able to update it soon - will have a lender pull within 24-48 hours.

Preliminary estimate is that the score will fall at the lowest end of the FICO simulator range.

I have no idea where TU will fall. I'll be curious to compare the TU98 to the projected TU98 to the actual TU04 -- though extrapolating from my experience may be a bad idea. Other people may have different reasons for differences between TU98 and 04...

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

golo — Tue, 15 May 2012 16:26:08 GMT

Thank you! I will post next week as well when i pull mine,we will see if the simulator is accurate.It says that my score which is 608 right now will go between staying the same and up to 623 if i pay down some of the total of the revolving/open account balance.But if i just pay any amount for 1 month it will go considerably higher,it's quite confusing.I will post the updates in case anybody is interested.

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

languedoctor — Tue, 15 May 2012 15:02:19 GMT

Good luck on your rebuilding efforts. Can't promise any further updates, after all. I'm done w/ myFICO.

Short version: I learned via EQ that the updates I was waiting on hit my equifax report. I purchased a score power report to use for comparison with the lender pull -- nothing but old info. Called customer service to request a credit for use on a future score power report -- figured I'd wait a day or two. refused. I figured that was an invitation to cancel, so I accepted it.

I have no time or patience for games, so I'll be getting my FICOs directly from EQ from now on. Losing access to an irrelevant TU score is no big loss. Rather than promote myFICO indirectly, I'll find some. third-party message board to frequent.

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

languedoctor — Mon, 28 May 2012 15:36:25 GMT

@golo wrote:
Any updates on this? I'm in the same boat,paid off some CC including a charge off that i suppose was included in the utilz.Also pay my car off,waiting for all that to post hopefully i get an alert,i will post back the results in a week or so in case anybody is interested.Thanks

OK, I'm over myself. I'm not blessed with a ton of patience to begin with, and the mortgage process has put what little I have under that much more stress.

To recap, EQ simulator projected 650-690 after one month based solely on cc paydowns.

The final result was . . . . drumroll . . . 659. Woohoo!

I knew that 690 was too good to be true, given the sort of negatives that I have. I'll take 659 and be happy. I don't have a closing date yet (mortgage app is in processing), but things look good, per my LO.

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

mwmiller82 — Mon, 28 May 2012 19:24:48 GMT

Great News Doc!!

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

Anonymous — Tue, 29 May 2012 09:30:42 GMT

Great news to hear! I hope that the estimator is good to me as well after my CC bal updates next month.

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

Anonymous — Fri, 27 Jul 2012 17:06:08 GMT

I wanted to bump this to see if anyone else had updates regarding their "testing the simulator". :-) I am testing it myself. It promises a 40 pt minimum jump on my TU report for paying off total revolving balances, and a minimum 20 pt jump on EQ report. I'll find out in a month... fingers crossed. :-)

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

Anonymous — Fri, 27 Jul 2012 20:28:04 GMT

My results: My was score at 7/01/2012 was 778. I did a simulation to add a new CC account with a $20,000 because NFCU had given me one for the same amount but it hadn't hit the report yet and it said my score would be between 778-758. Then when the new account did hit my score went to 794. I did pay 25% of my debt though. My credit utilization was 19% before the new account and 7% after So that could be it but since my last new account was 4 years ago before the NFCU account SO I would have thought it would lower my average age and thus lower my score lower than the credit utilization boost from the new account. I'm curious to see what it will do when The PenFed card I just got for $18,000 hits next month. The simulator says 764-794 we will see. BTW, I'm using EQ not TU.

Re: accuracy of myfico simulator

Kozmo — Sat, 28 Jul 2012 12:12:54 GMT

Ever try using Amex's credit secure ? It's even worse. First off their fako scores are not even working correctly. On top of that the simulator is dead. No matter what positive change you make like lowering your util from 50 to 10 it shows your score as still being lowered by doing that. Waste of time and money