topic Re: The myFICO Score Simulator Sucks! in General Credit Topics

The myFICO Score Simulator Sucks!

Patient957 — Sat, 29 Mar 2025 20:28:09 GMT

Or does it?

The general concensus here, and mostly for good reasons, is that score simulators aren't accurate and cannot be trusted.

But on 7/7/24, after I purchased an Experian 1B from MF, the score simulator was whispering sweet nothings to me, telling me things I wanted to hear, and I wanted to believe it, and honestly, I mostly did, becuase it made sense according to my understanding of Fico 8.

I was AZEO and had been gardening for several months, and was planning to continue through this month, 3/2024. So now in retrospect, was the simulator trustworthy, or was I disappointed?

Here are the results, comparing AZEO scores to AZEO scores:

Month	Predicted	Actual	Predicted Score	Actual Score	Assumed/Guessed Reason(s)
JUL	0	0	774	774
SEP	0	+7	774	781	Scorable Inqs 3 → 2
OCT	+5	0	779	781
NOV	+10	+12	789	793	Oldest Revolver turns 24 months (+9); Scorable Inqs 2 → 1 (+3)
FEB	+5	0	794	793
MAR	+20	+23	814	816	Youngest revolver turns 12 months (+20); Inqs drop to zero (+3)
NOV	+10	?	824	?	Oldest revolver turns 3 yrs

The predicted 5 points for Oct actually came in Sept and it was 7 points.
The predicted 10 for Nov was actually 12 that came in two chunks, +9 (on 11/1) then +3 (on actual inq date)
The +5 for Feb didn't materialize, but the +20 for Mar was actually +23 in two chunks, +20 (on 3/1) and +3 (on actual inq date)
The total cumulative prediction through March was +40, the actual was +42
We'll see what happens in Nov 2025, but I won't be gardening, so attribution of changes likely will be less clear.

Overall, I'd say the myFICO Simulator is fairly accurate and generally can be trusted. I honestly believe the small errors are inserted intentionally to obfuscate the functioning of the model, but obviously I'm only guessing here.

Bottom line: I think the simulator is good. What do you think?

Re: The myFICO Score Simulator Sucks!

GZG — Sat, 29 Mar 2025 22:29:18 GMT

I imagine definitely with simple one change situations, it's pretty accurate, but then again, I imagine many of us here could probably give you the same info if they know the credit report, the current score the the potential change

the simulator seems to think breaking 0/12 and breaking my SSL optimization at the same time is worth 60 points, rough, but it is wrong? I would be curious to know how it does with multi-step changes like this

Re: The myFICO Score Simulator Sucks!

FicoMike0 — Fri, 04 Apr 2025 01:38:39 GMT

Where is this fico simulator, anyway?

Re: The myFICO Score Simulator Sucks!

Patient957 — Fri, 04 Apr 2025 13:18:14 GMT

@FicoMike0 wrote:
Where is this fico simulator, anyway?

It's available on myFICO from the Member Dashboard. But it only comes with paid products, not the free subscription to EQ8.

Re: The myFICO Score Simulator Sucks!

FicoMike0 — Fri, 04 Apr 2025 20:54:17 GMT

In that case, I agree, it sux donkey dorks!