topic Re: Rapid Default Scores in General Credit Topics

Rapid Default Scores

GreatLife — Sun, 27 Apr 2025 13:41:43 GMT

Can the veil of secrecy be lifted?

WHO uses it?

WHAT specific elements comprise it?

WHERE can consumers obtain it?

WHEN can a person dispute it?

WHY can't access our scores for it?

Re: Rapid Default Scores

FicoMike0 — Sun, 27 Apr 2025 13:46:12 GMT

Ditto @GreatLife

How do we game the turd score?

Do any other turds beside us b use it?I

Re: Rapid Default Scores

Patient957 — Sun, 27 Apr 2025 15:32:34 GMT

Interesting press release about the TURD score:

https://newsroom.transunion.com/as-financial-institutions-face-greater-rapid-default-fraud-and-credit-risks-transunion-fortifies-its-idvision-with-iovation-suite-of-solutions/

Doesn't answer any specific questions, but outlines it's reason for being.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

Patient957 — Sun, 27 Apr 2025 15:40:39 GMT

@GreatLife wrote:
Can the veil of secrecy be lifted?

WHO uses it?

USB

Fidelity

Probably others but that's all I could find by searching.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

indiolatino61 — Tue, 29 Apr 2025 06:12:56 GMT

Risk management models will always be a guessing game. Unless you can see into the future, there is no real way of knowing who will default on a loan/card, be it within 12 months or many years. You don't need to be an analyst to know that when events like Covid hit, even people with stellar credit ratings may fall into the financial crater. All that is certain, at least in my mind, is that any new models will not benefit the end consumer.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

Patient957 — Mon, 28 Apr 2025 19:13:51 GMT

@indiolatino61 wrote:
Risk management models will always be a guessing game. Unless you can see into the future, there is no real way of knowing who will default on a loan/card, be it within 12 months or many years. You don't need to be an analyst to know that when events like Covid hits, even people with stellar credit ratings may fall into the financial crater.

Credit scoring isn't about predicting who will default; it's about assigning probabilities of default to certain subpopulations based on credit score. Think about it as a distribution, like this:

[U.S distribution of FICO credit scores and probability of default by FICO credit scores from 2000 to 2002.]

Where someone in the 700 to 749 subpopulation is over 4 times as likely to default as someone in the 750 to 850 subpopulation. And someone 650 to 699 twice as likely to default as someone 700 to 749.

You never know who in particular is going to default. You just know the probability of default for a certain group.

And I think you're correct that economic disasters like Covid can shift the entire curve.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

FicoMike0 — Wed, 30 Apr 2025 22:56:56 GMT

I just got turned down for another cli by USB based on a turd of 574. Says

" too few joint accounts" (does anyone still do those?) and

"Too many recent bank card accounts"

I'm 1/6, 4/12, 7/24.

Those will all drop one next month.

I'll apply again and see if my score changes.

For comparison, my tu fico8 is 810.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

Patient957 — Wed, 30 Apr 2025 23:45:02 GMT

Yet another schitty turd.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

indiolatino61 — Thu, 01 May 2025 01:52:37 GMT

@FicoMike0 wrote:
I just got turned down for another cli by USB based on a turd of 574. Says
" too few joint accounts" (does anyone still do those?) and
"Too many recent bank card accounts"
I'm 1/6, 4/12, 7/24.
Those will all drop one next month.
I'll apply again and see if my score changes.
For comparison, my tu fico8 is 810.

"Too few joint accounts?" That just sounds like lenders are making excuses up as they go along. It's just as bad as having a paid-in-full mortgage being a negative. Also, a FICO of 810 and TURD at 574 is ridiculous. This scoring model has to be re-evaluated. At any rate, the best of luck to you.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

Thomas_Thumb — Sat, 03 May 2025 01:39:24 GMT

@FicoMike0 wrote:
I just got turned down for another cli by USB based on a turd of 574. Says
" too few joint accounts" (does anyone still do those?) and
"Too many recent bank card accounts"
I'm 1/6, 4/12, 7/24.
Those will all drop one next month.
I'll apply again and see if my score changes.
For comparison, my tu fico8 is 810.

Well ... Some things that look good on the surface don't pass the smell test. Just glad I'm not on a panel that needs to sniff out potential bad actors.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

FicoMike0 — Sun, 04 May 2025 01:10:43 GMT

It seems that when tu mines the data to find out who is likely to be 90 days late in the next two years, my probability is something like (850-810)/850 =5%, while when asked the probability that I will open several accounts, max then out, then take the money and run, it's more like (850-574)/850 =32%. Probably worse, the scales probably nonlinear. Just normalizing from 300-850 to 0-550 would give (550-274)/550 = 50%. Wow, I really am a big risk!

I can see that those doing "bust out fraud" would be unlikely to have joint accounts.

The next time I create a synthetic credit identity, I'll be sure to include a Mrs. synthetic to go with it, lol. Live and learn.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

indiolatino61 — Sun, 04 May 2025 03:54:00 GMT

@FicoMike0 wrote:
It seems that when tu mines the data to find out who is likely to be 90 days late in the next two years, my probability is something like (850-810)/850 =5%, while when asked the probability that I will open several accounts, max then out, then take the money and run, it's more like (850-574)/850 =32%. Probably worse, the scales probably nonlinear. Just normalizing from 300-850 to 0-550 would give (550-274)/550 = 50%. Wow, I really am a big risk!
I can see that those doing "bust out fraud" would be unlikely to have joint accounts.
The next time I create a synthetic credit identity, I'll be sure to include a Mrs. synthetic to go with it, lol. Live and learn.

This is the formula to estimate how many calories your body needs just to maintain its functions:

(9.99xWeightx0.45359237)+(6.25xHeightx2.54)-(4.92xAge)+5

Now, imagine what the FICO formula(s) must be like...lol.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

Thomas_Thumb — Tue, 10 Jun 2025 15:26:47 GMT

Well I don't need a formula. I've got plenty of available calories stored in reserve. Gotta save up for a rainy day.

Still, wish I knew my TURD score.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

FicoMike0 — Tue, 17 Jun 2025 02:14:37 GMT

@Thomas_Thumb

Open a card with usb. They give a free turd score every time you apply for a cli.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

FICOdawg — Sat, 26 Jul 2025 02:10:22 GMT

@indiolatino61 wrote:
Risk management models will always be a guessing game. Unless you can see into the future, there is no real way of knowing who will default on a loan/card, be it within 12 months or many years. You don't need to be an analyst to know that when events like Covid hit, even people with stellar credit ratings may fall into the financial crater. All that is certain, at least in my mind, is that any new models will not benefit the end consumer.

If they wanted to mitigate risk, they could allow people to voluntarily provide income, home equity, investment balances, 401k balances, etc. That to me is the big hedge as the person with no equity and high DTI scored be score lower than the person with assets. They check it for loans they should do it for credit cards. The reality is they LOVE people who tread water with minimum payments. They get killed with lower scores and less options while filling the banks coffers with 20%+ interest. Also, once a card hits like 60-70% limit the bank should balance chase it on the way up.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

FICOdawg — Sat, 26 Jul 2025 02:12:30 GMT

@Thomas_Thumb wrote:
@FicoMike0 wrote:
I just got turned down for another cli by USB based on a turd of 574. Says
" too few joint accounts" (does anyone still do those?) and
"Too many recent bank card accounts"
I'm 1/6, 4/12, 7/24.
Those will all drop one next month.
I'll apply again and see if my score changes.
For comparison, my tu fico8 is 810.

Well ... Some things that look good on the surface don't pass the smell test. Just glad I'm not on a panel that needs to sniff out potential bad actors.

I believe if the hood was lifted, FICO would be made irrelevant. FICO has guard rails that if they were too stringent the banks would lose those min payment cash cows.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

Realist — Sat, 26 Jul 2025 10:17:23 GMT

There is a game available called Capitalism Lab, that simulates real type scenarios such as insurance and banking formulas, to categorize a population into a certain grouping percentages kind of outlined by @Patient957 . In fact its both a game, and a simulator enough, that some colleges have adopted it's capitalism based approach towards teaching to students, as a model to simulate certain economic approaches.

Games at times, have simulated multiple scenarios that would mimic real world conditions, whether that condition was intended or not. Inflation, deflation, hyper-inflation, crushing deflation, formulas based upon lending percentages upon a certain credit formula. The worst case of all being bartering, where the game creators failed so hard in fake game currency control, that items were simply bartered for items. While still a game, these simulations are at times modeled among tens and hundreds of thousands of users, representing a mini version of a real economy, yet still simulated in virtual game economy. It's a bit wild to have observed these scenarios, and how the author/creators attempt to self correct - and how those self corrects effect everyone else within the virtual scenario. Kind of like the Central Bank, and everyone else that uses a fiat currency across the globe. They dictate, and you benefit or suffer by their actions or interpretations.

Anyways, this was more of a tidbit than anything else. Everything is a formula based upon best guess estimates/practices, to maximize value and profitability for corporations. Everyone falls into a container within that formula.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

FICOdawg — Sat, 26 Jul 2025 13:20:45 GMT

@Realist wrote:
There is a game available called Capitalism Lab, that simulates real type scenarios such as insurance and banking formulas, to categorize a population into a certain grouping percentages kind of outlined by @Patient957 . In fact its both a game, and a simulator enough, that some colleges have adopted it's capitalism based approach towards teaching to students, as a model to simulate certain economic approaches.

Games at times, have simulated multiple scenarios that would mimic real world conditions, whether that condition was intended or not. Inflation, deflation, hyper-inflation, crushing deflation, formulas based upon lending percentages upon a certain credit formula. The worst case of all being bartering, where the game creators failed so hard in fake game currency control, that items were simply bartered for items. While still a game, these simulations are at times modeled among tens and hundreds of thousands of users, representing a mini version of a real economy, yet still simulated in virtual game economy. It's a bit wild to have observed these scenarios, and how the author/creators attempt to self correct - and how those self corrects effect everyone else within the virtual scenario. Kind of like the Central Bank, and everyone else that uses a fiat currency across the globe. They dictate, and you benefit or suffer by their actions or interpretations.

Anyways, this was more of a tidbit than anything else. Everything is a formula based upon best guess estimates/practices, to maximize value and profitability for corporations. Everyone falls into a container within that formula.

Yes it's actually called game theory and is intended to predict human behavior based on logic.

Re: Rapid Default Scores

AndrewF — Sun, 27 Jul 2025 00:02:28 GMT

@indiolatino61 wrote:
@FicoMike0 wrote:
I just got turned down for another cli by USB based on a turd of 574. Says
" too few joint accounts" (does anyone still do those?) and
"Too many recent bank card accounts"
I'm 1/6, 4/12, 7/24.
Those will all drop one next month.
I'll apply again and see if my score changes.
For comparison, my tu fico8 is 810.

"Too few joint accounts?" That just sounds like lenders are making excuses up as they go along. It's just as bad as having a paid-in-full mortgage being a negative. Also, a FICO of 810 and TURD at 574 is ridiculous. This scoring model has to be re-evaluated. At any rate, the best of luck to you.

American Express told me "Bankruptcy" for 5 years, then they say "You have closed too many bank card accounts recently."

If they don't like you for some reason they'll give a "reason". I'm not sure why closing old cards down that were only useful to my credit rebuild 5 years ago is a negative. If someone was going to "bust out" would they spare any lender? Why would a person who was a severe risk be closing unused credit cards?

Re: Rapid Default Scores

AndrewF — Sun, 27 Jul 2025 00:03:48 GMT

@FicoMike0 wrote:
It seems that when tu mines the data to find out who is likely to be 90 days late in the next two years, my probability is something like (850-810)/850 =5%, while when asked the probability that I will open several accounts, max then out, then take the money and run, it's more like (850-574)/850 =32%. Probably worse, the scales probably nonlinear. Just normalizing from 300-850 to 0-550 would give (550-274)/550 = 50%. Wow, I really am a big risk!
I can see that those doing "bust out fraud" would be unlikely to have joint accounts.
The next time I create a synthetic credit identity, I'll be sure to include a Mrs. synthetic to go with it, lol. Live and learn.

As I said in the last post, AmEx doesn't like me for whatever reason, but they can't seem to get enough of my spouse. They're always offering him cards and special SUBs at the highest level they offer.