nice job getting your credit scores up to the 700+ range in a short amount of time.
I'm no expert but have experienced some of the questions you've asked yourself. Over the past few years I have sought out Chase, Amex, etc. for credit products. I'll try to answer putting myself in your position or echoing some of the wiser members of the forum
-RonM21 makes a point all veterans would tell you, ignore the Credit Karma approval odds. They are not accurate and apparently based on a shallow review of your data and other members' data. I've been approved for cards that were poor or fair odds. There are data points of 'excellent' approval odds getting denied. Instead check for pre approvals from the bank direct. In my experience, I was in no position to get the Sapphire Preferred because I had opened 4 credit cards in 2018 but Chase sent me a green check/pre-approval offer with a fixed APR so I took a chance and replied to the offer - was approved, but barely - got the starting limit of $5,000. I had already been declined for the card previously for having too many recent cards(5/24)
-I'm assuming a lot of the Chase inquiries on EX and TU were denials for new cards and CLIs? what was the feedback they provided?
have you spoken to reconsideration on those occassions to have a more in depth discussion about their denial reasons? those things are
what you want to focus on when deciding when it is right to apply.
-noticed AAoA for your own accounts is under 1 year. And that your Freedom Unlimited is about to be 1 year old and your Chase Amazon card is about to be 6 months old. Not knowing your income and other debt/obligations and assuming all derogatory and lates were removed from your profile like you described and there's no oversights that could be bringing down your score then I would say that any denials you get would be from the age of your credit history.
-how much do you travel? I see you have some nice cash back options with the Discover rotating 5%, the double cash back for first year. You didn't really need the Citi DC until year 2 of Discover. I'm not too familiar with Amazon fine print but I'm guessing you could get 5% back on Amazon Fresh? and of course Whole Foods is grocery so there's tons of cash back on top of when Discover has the grocery and wholesale categories on 5%. The Citi DC also beats the FU. ....so anyway yeah - what type of travel have you done recently and what do you expect in the next two years? the Gold card will really only get you direct flight purchase bonuses+incidental reimbursement. Right now the Gold Card strength is dining and grocery(which you have as Discover bonus category and possibly Prime card) so although the MR points have a strong value you're only going to benefit if you're flying and booking direct/amex portal, can't book through OTAs.
With SP you get a lower return per purchase but a broader travel category. You could transfer saved up UR points from your FU.
so I guess you need to
a) figure out what type of travel purchases you'll make and determine which card will provide better returns
b) if the answer is Sapphire then I think you need to look back on the 14 Chase inquiries that I see on your Excel sheet. Work on the specific denial reasons...if I understand correctly the last was mid September? That is close enough to be relevant towards your current profile.
My advice
-safe and hopefully smart play -------I would not apply until FU was at least 12 months old and Prime is at least 6 months old. That's not too far away. Obviously it would be best to have you AAoA be 24 months + but if you really have to get the Rose Gold then apply for the AMEX shortly before their offer ends, this way you're doing it when your credit is a wee bit more aged.
-fast and loose play - -------you could theoretically apply for both at the same time(same day) if you really needed to have both and were prepared to meet the spending requirements for the SUB.
if you want a referral for either card and it's permitted in the forum I can DM
either way, good luck on your journey. Would like to hear how you play it and the results.
