My guaranteed offers are Prosper and a couple of Credit One cards, including the Credit One/American Express card. The CO/AE card had a $39 fee. I clicked through to Credit One and it says my chances are outstanding. I don't want a Credit One card at this point, but I use them as a barometer of where I stand. Previously when I tried to pre-qualify for the American Express version it came back as a no-go. I clicked back to browse Credit One's cards and found the AE version. I submitted the pre-qual form and this time it came back with a counter offer. It said I was pre approved for the AE card, but with new terms. The $39 annual fee was replaced with a $75 first year annual fee, going to $99 after that and billed monthly. I wonder if I had gone forward with the CK guaranteed application if I would have received that same counter offer and if that counts as being accepted even if I rejected the counter offer. The name of the card is the same, but that's a whole other experience, much more sub-prime.
You should see my offers. All the good stuff. With a BK? That aint happening. Take it with a grain of salt. AMEX's own pre-qual is pretty solid its been said. Worked for me.
I had some balances to report on my U.S. Bank cards a few weeks ago, and Vantage punished me by dropping 22 points (not unheard of with Vantage). My scores are 797 and 798, which still isn't bad but I guess not good enough for the Citi guaranteed offers.
Now the only offers I have on Credit Karma are for Prosper and Indigo. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Edit: I just checked, and my EQ is back up to 818 (+21 points), while TU is unchanged. Gotta love the volatility of Vantage. 
For what it's worth, I still only have guaranteed offers for Prosper and Indigo, so possibly CK looks at TU scores to generate the offers (or else they just don't like me anymore, LOL.)
Yeah, I don't trust CK guaranteed offers. I used to only see terrible (indigo, etc.) offers, now I see 3 Citi cards, yet the preapproval on their site doesn't match me with anything. Scores are ok but high utilization and a lot of recent accounts, with thin file, so denial is very likely. A HP for $50 isn't worth it IMO.
Credit Karma says I have "Outstanding" and "Excellent" chances at dozens of cards, but the only "Guarantee" is for the Indigo card.
They would have to pay me a LOT more than $50 to even app for that one...
I've got no Karma guarantee offers currently. All of my "outstanding" approval odds ar sub prime with AF cards (Indigo, Avant, Credit One) except for a Mercury Visa that's no AF but has a weak 1% earning. I wonder whatever happened to that flat 2% Mercury MC that was floating around Credit Karma for a while.
When I applied for the Apple card they disappeared (after the HP). They reappeared again after the Apple Card started reporting, even though my vantage scores are slightly lower because of the new account. Same offers: simplicity, double cash and diamond preferred. These and some citi cards are also on Experian, feels like Citi is spending more money on ads these days. They also sent me a pre-selected mailer for Custom Cash, with one APR (not range).