AMEX SUB Questions

kcos194 · ‎08-04-2022

Apologies if this has been asked before but I couldn't find an answer on the site and anything that was somewhat relevant was from 5+ years ago. I have a lot of spend coming up in the next few years with my 2 kids now in daycare. 2023 will be the most expensive as it gets less as they get older, but I'm looking at around 35k out of pocket. Goes without saying I want points for all that and I'm trying to formulate a plan for SUB's. One note: I am NOT looking to churn. I have my own thoughts on that and that's a totally separate discussion.

I'm thinking about starting a relationship with AMEX first for 1 HP to get in the door (I've confimed the school payment method accepts it), but my question is this: do the SUB's I see on the AMEX site - or on Resy - stay with the individual, or are they per card? In other words, if I use the Resy offer for the 125k on the platinum, hit the SUB, then apply for the Gold can I also get a SUB for the Gold? Then BCP, then Green.

In the terms and conditions of all the SUB offers I've seen Amex says: The welcome offer, intro APRs, and intro plan fees are not available to applicants who have or have had this Card. We may also consider the number of American Express Cards you have opened and closed as well as other factors in making a decision on your welcome offer.

I take this to mean prior cards don't always have an effect on these offers, but I'm wondering how that actually plays out in real life. If I hit this the way I want to, I can hit the spending requirements on all 4 charge cards in about 6 months. Would this scare AMEX into pulling these offers, or worse, declining me for the cards? How are they with app velocity either w/in AMEX or outside of it? Would it matter if I started going "top down" (platinum to green) or vice versa? I understand the annual fees associated with this, and I'm fine with that. If I decide to downgrade anything, that'll be a 2024 problem.

Thanks in advance, appreciate any insight anyone has.

coldfusion · ‎08-04-2022

Sign up bonuses are tied to each card. However, American Express looks at your history including your spending history and velocity of applications/SUB collections and uses that to help validate whether or not you will be eligible for a signup bonus when you apply.

If it looks like you are putting just enough spend to collect signup bonuses and then effectively sockdrawering your cards you risk having them at some point deciding that you would not qualify for the signup bonus.. However, if they do that when you submit your application there will be a popup advising there would be no SUB offer extended with the option of proceeding with the application or bailing out altogether.

(10/2025)
FICO 8 (EX) 838 (TU) 846 (EQ) 850
FICO 9 (EX) 850 (TU) 850 (EQ) 850

$1M+ club

Artist formerly known as the_old_curmudgeon who was formerly known as coldfusion

kcos194 · ‎08-04-2022

@coldfusion wrote:
Sign up bonuses are tied to each card. However, American Express looks at your history including your spending history and velocity of applications/SUB collections and uses that to help validate whether or not you will be eligible for a signup bonus when you apply.

If it looks like you are putting just enough spend to collect signup bonuses and then effectively sockdrawering your cards you risk having them at some point deciding that you would not qualify for the signup bonus.. However, if they do that when you submit your application there will be a popup advising there would be no SUB offer extended with the option of proceeding with the application or bailing out altogether.

Excellent, that's great to know, thanks!

W261w261 · ‎08-04-2022

I think you can get into all 4 of those cards pretty quickly. But, if you get out of them after just a year, you're asking for trouble. If you don't fly a lot, I would get rid of the Platinum card first, and only the Plat, so you don't get hit with another 695 AF. I would keep the Gold, it's a great card with the 4x categories. Wait awhile longer and ditch the Green. Maybe consider getting a good 2% "anything else" instead of the BCP. I don't know how new your other cards are, but if you don't go beyond 4 new ones, you can eventually close out a couple of Amex cards and go get some SUB from Chase.

No reason not to get the Plat and the Gold through RESY. I wasn't going to get a Plat, as I don't really need it, but the RESY extras, particularly the 10x dining credit for 6 mos / 25,000 spend was too good to pass up. I got the BCE through RESY just recently, and am almost to the 1500 dining spend at 10%. Such a nice feeling knowing that right behind it is the Plat 10x dining credit for another 6 mos.

And good luck with your assumption that kids get cheaper as they get older. Ha Ha.

kcos194 · ‎08-04-2022

@W261w261 wrote:
I think you can get into all 4 of those cards pretty quickly. But, if you get out of them after just a year, you're asking for trouble. If you don't fly a lot, I would get rid of the Platinum card first, and only the Plat, so you don't get hit with another 695 AF. I would keep the Gold, it's a great card with the 4% categories. Wait awhile longer and ditch the Green. Maybe consider getting a good 2% "anything else" instead of the BCP. I don't know how new your other cards are, but if you don't go beyond 4 new ones, you can eventually close out a couple of Amex cards and go get some SUB from Chase.

No reason not to get the Plat and the Gold through RESY. I wasn't going to get a Plat, as I don't really need it, but the RESY extras, particularly the 10% dining credit for 6 mos / 25,000 spend was too good to pass up. I got the BCE through RESY just recently, and am almost to the 1500 dining spend at 10%. Such a nice feeling knowing that right behind it is the Plat 10% dining credit for another 6 mos.

And good luck with your assumption that kids get cheaper as they get older. Ha Ha.

Hahaha, no the kids don't get cheaper, only the daycare tuition does! And that's nominal at best when factoring in COL tuition increases every year. But yea, my plan was to enter the Chase eco-system after Amex. My scores are still in the 600's now, so hoping to get in with the Amex charge cards first. Just got a SavorOne in July and the Gold would effectively replace that for my daily spend. Plus the gold resy offer has 20% statement credit up to $250 on restaurants so that makes the first year AF a wash. Makes the platinum AF a bit easier to swallow.

Might also have DW get the Chase trifecta over the next 12-24 months or so, then I can try Citi or whoever else has generous SUBs. More I think about it, the closer this is to churning but just without manufactured spend.

I'd love to be able to take all these points plus cash back and go to Europe or something when my kids are old enough as a "we survived" reward for us lol.

W261w261 · ‎08-05-2022

Although I have a few cash back cards, my heart is with the Amex MR system. When doing various calcs which assume a value for them I use .O125 each, although The Points Guy site uses 2¢. Going up from there and getting increasingly arcane, supposedly you can wring much more value using transfers, legwork, and higher-level seats on overseas trips. It's a whole thing, such that all my 700k MR points just sit there, going up. I'm afraid to go beyond the border yet (except Hawaii I guess), so I just spend and watch, spend and watch. I know their value goes down, and the conventional wisdom says don't hold them for no good reason, but I keep thinking - fantasizing really - about some dream trip. Meantime, I have a free companion ticket up through first class courtesy of my Delta Reserve card, and haven't used it either. I guess I'm sort of paralyzed, rationalized as "too busy."

W261w261 · ‎08-05-2022

Oh, and I'm sure you know this, but MS is a serious offense at Amex. When the Rewards Abuse Team (a/k/a RAT squad) starts looking at your account, it's not a good thing. Getting a pop-up saying you're not eligible for a SUB is mild by comparison.

kcos194 · ‎08-05-2022

@W261w261 wrote:
Oh, and I'm sure you know this, but MS is a serious offense at Amex. When the Rewards Abuse Team (a/k/a RAT squad) starts looking at your account, it's not a good thing. Getting a pop-up saying you're not eligible for a SUB is mild by comparison.

I didn't know that, so thanks. Yea, manufactured spend is just a bridge too far for me so hopefully my natural spend won't raise any issues.

W261w261 · ‎08-05-2022

Just another reason to be careful when watching YouTube. There was some guy there talking like he knew what he was saying, like "Wow, here's this free way to get a lot of points" (MS) when in fact he was prescribing a way to get your account (s) canceled.

My formula for Amex (or really all cards these days): Don't Get Cute! Don't try to run a business through a personal card. Don't crowd due dates. Don't arrange payments on funds that "will be cleared tomorrow." etc.

GatorGuy · ‎08-05-2022

As mentioned if you plan on just opening one card after another and spending just enough to meet the SUB, you'll likely run into issues.

However if the pop up shows up it sometimes is just for certain cards, usually the highest SUBs. If you continue to use your current cards and spend , the pop up usually goes away in a few months.