So the account I closed just reported to EX, status "paid loan". Result? A 23-point drop in FICO 8 on EX. I swear, just when I think I have this stuff figured out...I give up, I'm just going to quit trying to micromanage my scores and just pay my bills and be happy to be in the vicinity of 800.
Edit: The account reported to EQ yesterday, "closed at consumer's request/paid account", and there was no resulting score drop whatsoever for EQ.