+1 to @Anonymous. It's all going to depend on how often you stay, how often you would take advantage of the perks (and how many people are with you), where you stay, when you stay, how you'd use the free night certificate, and how you plan to use your points.
If you think you'll use your points to transfer to an airline partner, SPG/Marriott is really the only game in town as the points are SIGNIFICANTLY more valuable. Just using Flying Blue (Air France/KLM) as an example, 120k Marriott points will get you 50k miles but 120k Hilton points will only get you 12k miles, 390k Marriott points will get you 100k miles plus 7 nights in some of the nicest hotels in the world yet 390k Hilton points will only get you 39k miles.
Anybody willing to pay $450 a year can be a top-tier elite at Hilton, and when almost everyone is special, no one is really special. Marriott Gold comes with some decent perks, but having the card you only need 35 actual combined award and paid nights or $75k in calendar year spend on the card to get Platinum which comes with decent perks.
Using the free night certificate wisely with Marriott can easily offset the entire $450 annual fee, before even adding in things like the $300 credit, Priority Pass, and TSA PreCheck/Global Entry credit. Marriott awards are predictable and easy to work with, Hilton could be 30,000 or 400,000 points a night for a similarly priced room.
Amex plat, Marriott and Hilton gold. FHR at 5x and 5x select airline and get hotel points and FHR perks. In addition, 60k SUB is more flexible and MR points transfer to both making gold and plat a killer combo for a net $80 if you use all the credits.
Personal Cards: Amex Plat | Amex Delta Res | CSR | Citi AA Exec Business Cards: Ink+ | Amex BGR
Reading these responses makes me darned glad I went with Marriott/SPG for the time being instead of Hilton!
BUSINESS 
@Credit-hoarder wrote:Reading these responses makes me darned glad I went with Marriott/SPG for the time being instead of Hilton!
Well I was SPG/Marriott and switched to Hilton and I have been very happy since and haven’t missed Marriott at all.
The funny thing is on some stays I’m across the street or down a block from the Marriott or SPG hotel I used to stay at.
@redpat wrote:
@Credit-hoarder wrote:Reading these responses makes me darned glad I went with Marriott/SPG for the time being instead of Hilton!
Well I was SPG/Marriott and switched to Hilton and I have been very happy since and haven’t missed Marriott at all.
The funny thing is on some stays I’m across the street or down a block from the Marriott or SPG hotel I used to stay at.
It's just that I had debated getting the Hilton too and was looking for reasons not to b/c I keep getting the 100K offer for the vanilla card with $1k spend and am still going back and forth about accepting it. On one hand we have quite a few Hampton Inns in the area--but on the other hand the card would fill up my 5th and possibly final AMEX revolver slot.
@staticvoidmain wrote:
@redpat wrote:
The funny thing is on some stays I’m across the street or down a block from the Marriott or SPG hotel I used to stay at.
arriott at all.I am actually on SPG currently (surpise!), but might switch in the future if I decided I want to pay more for a hotel card. I still think Hilton's luxury card offers better value when used the way it's supposed to be used: a hotel card, and not for transferring points. It is a hotel card with better benefits, in my personal use case. Plus SPG has been devalued by the merger, and while it still comes higher than Hilton's, it's not far behind, considering current valuation and the card's earning potential. Don't get me wrong, in the end, I'd rather just upgrade than have to switch programs. That said, I do not have the Hilton card, so take everything I say with big a grain of salt. If I am missing something, then please enlighten me as well.
I went with the 0 AF Hilton for 75k SUB since I have plat and get gold anyway. In addition, I have my Amex gold tied to Hilton’s dining program and get 8 additional points since we have many dining options in the program. Marriott doesn’t have a dining program so Hilton points are much easier to rack up than Marriott points. If I want suite I’ll book one because I will never depend on an upgrade.