@AyaMai wrote:@simplynoir wrote:While it's not a guarantee that you will be SP'd for the app the odds are in your favor that it will be as a cardholder already. We have had reports of the occasional HP even for those that have been customers with AMEX for years. In other words it should be a SP but don't be surprised if you're the unlucky contestant at a HP either
I did apply for Marriott Bonvoy Brilliant® American Express Card on Friday, approved and will be delivered today. I have the feeling a Pop Up Jail will show up if I apply for the card today. It is odd that Aspire $450 Annual Fee has the same 150K SUB as Surpass $95 Annual Fee.
It's not uncommon for co-branded Amex cards in the same family to actually have less generous Welcome Offers for higher AF cards. A common case of this is Delta Reserve, which with its $550 annual fee will often have a Welcome Offer with far fewer SkyMiles than SkyMiles Platinum or even SkyMiles Gold. Typically someone is already entrenched into an airline or hotel loyalty program before shelling out big bucks for a $450+ annual fee card in that program and would need less incentive to apply given the additional perks and/or features of the higher AF card.
@Citylights18 wrote:The problem is the SUBs are increasingly not worth anything in the Marriott ecoystem. My 85,000 Marriot points are worth no more than 3 nights valued at $120 dollars if I look to cash them in online... [snip] Marriott is what 6x in network? Given those points aren't worth anything you might as well be spending at their property with a CSR.
While I'm not consistently getting the 2-4 cpp I was a few years ago prior to the completion of the Starwood merger, I'm still getting between 1.2 and 2.17 cpp on redemptions. 85k should still easily be $1000 or so in rooms. I definitely have seen some redemptions that are below 1 cpp, but on those I just pay or book an alternate property, and haven't seen anything approaching the 0.42 your math is working out to. When doing valuations, are you including taxes and fees? You don't pay those on award nights with Marriott and, in some locales, those can be enormous.
@Citylights18 wrote on 1/14:I didn't factor in taxes and fees to the CCP equivalent. Most of the properties at locations I was looking at did not even allow me to use points and the free night was in exchange for a property only going for $115 dollars.
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Rates I'm seeing this moment looking at booking in Tuscon for a 1/16 to 1/18 booking:
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Most hotels you can't even get with points. None of the hotels are anywhere close to 1 ccp (0.65 is about the best) and one hotel is 0.43 ccp. This is with Taxes and Fees Included.
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While not exactly fantastic IHG is running 0.71ccp to 1.28 ccp while Marriot for the same dates and city is 0.43 to a high of 0.59.
You can't realistically base a hotel or airline loyalty program's points/miles value on bookings made only 48 hours ahead. That would explain why you aren't even seeing redemptions on many properties. Taking your same Monday - Wednesday booking in Tucson but planning ahead 8 weeks, here are the first handful of results:
| Property | Points | Cash | Cents Per Point |
| Tuscon Marriott University Park | 54,000 | $554 | 1.03 |
| AC Hotel Tucson Downtown | 59,000 | $687 | 1.16 |
| TownePlace Suites Tucson | 42,000 | $645 | 1.54 |
| JW Marriott Tucson Starr Pass Resort & Spa | 118,000 | $1,544 | 1.31 |
| Courtyard Tucson Williams Centre | 39,500 | $582 | 1.47 |
| Sheraton Tucson Hotel & Suites | 39,500 | $466 | 1.18 |
The Sheraton was a great property for a stay there a while back. Also important to keep in mind for valuation, that if you typically stay 5 nights or more you'll get a lot of additional value from Marriott's 5th night free on award stays.