Hilton Honors AMEX - Upgrade vs New Account

[MASTERNC]

I have the no-fee Hilton Honors AMEX and the AF Hilton Honors Reserve Visa card from Citi.  I like the latter because of the free weekend night and Gold status, and I use the card frequently.

Now that Hilton is switching to AMEX, I want to make sure my Gold status continues, which (absent a new product) means getting the Surpass card.  Right now, AMEX is offering 100k bonus (with $3k spending in 3 months) plus a free weekend night after 1 year for new Surpass cards, and I was also targeted for an upgrade bonus (same offer but no free anniversary night).  The anniversary night can be nice, as I have gotten up to $500 value on them (i.e. a December weekend stay in NYC).

Normally, this would be an easy decision, but I already have 3 AMEX cards, and a new one would put me at the limit of cards (I have the no-fee BCE, the aforementioned HH card, and SPG).  The rumor is the Citi card will be converted to AMEX (what kind of product, new or existing, is unknown), and I have been eyeing the BCP card if the $250 + 10% bonus comes back (though my grocery spending isn't quite what it takes to justify the AF).

I have until month end to decide on either offer (so I can wait to see if any more news comes out about the Visa transition) but I am not sure which way to go on this.  How would some of you handle this?

[MrDisco99]

Amex has a once-per-lifetime rule on new card bonuses.  The rule is, if you've had the card in the past, you are ineligible for the signup bonus.

So... the best way to maximize rewards would be to do a fresh app for the Surpass card and get the new card bonus.  The vanilla Hilton card will still be eligible for an upgrade offer after that, though, which you can also take for more points.  You can't do this in reverse, i.e. if you take the upgrade offer, you can't get the new card bonus.

Also, if they convert your Citi card to a Hilton Surpass card, that will also make you ineligible for the new card bonus.  So you'll want to get the new card before that happens.

You can always cancel one of them after you get the points if you wind up having too many of them.

The current new card offer on the Surpass card is the best in a long time, if not ever, so now would be a good time to get it.