CLIs for Target vary. There's no pattern. Though the 3 consecutive months of a balance is a good theory. Never thought of that one before.
DW got a CLI on her first statement from $200 to $500. She went to purchase around $210 of items and was naturally declined. She returned some items to below $200 and the purchase was made. The next statement came with a CLI. She also got a soft pull that month.
On the otherhand, I get the card and PIF since November and nothing. I recent started letting a balance report. Am at month two doing that. I did call Target about CLIs. Of course they don't do it over the phone, but the reps don't even know when they come. Rep I talked to had the card for about 6 months before getting a CLI, but she shops at Target all the time. She did say your payment history does come into play.
I've read of people using the card one time for less than $100 and PIF, only to not use the card for months and suddenly they get a CLI 6-9 months later. I've read of people having the card for years with scores at or above 800 and still stuck with the $200. I have noticed that CLIs tend to come in batches every three months. There has been a flurry of CLI announcements over the past 2 weeks. If you look back 3 months ago, you'll see several posts about Target CLIs. DW and I have also received soft pulls every three months from Target. My observations anyway.