Rejection rates for credit-card applicants came in at 20.8% in the October survey, up from 14.4% a year ago, while the rejection rate for credit-limit increases ticked up to 31.7%, compared with 24.9% a year ago.
I have seen several articles similar to this in recent months. Not much we can all do except make sure we have all of our profiles in order the best we can, so that we can withstand any possible changes that could come.
Hrm.
There was an upswing like this a year ago too with the Syncrhony / Cap 1 numbers as I recall, and I saw it even earlier than that in my Lending Tree data (where my defaults turned supiciously high).
The stats are the stats, but rejections are not the same as defaults which is where people aren't paying their bills rather than just floating more debt (like I am, I know I know something could happen but short of act of God it won't this month); actually, with the rise of credit card information being floated online, I suspect there are even more applications and CLI requests being submitted than ever before and potentially not by as qualified borrowers... without the underwriting information it's hard to say, but my file isn't pretty anymore but a CU just handed me a 20k check from a personal loan, so I don't think we're that tight right now.
I'm waiting on other economic data before I think the sky is falling even as my own debts are still racking up unfortunately... but the income flow should be landing starting next Friday, so at least my personal situation will get better and admittedly I'm not in a place where I'm going to default.
@Revelate wrote:Hrm.
There was an upswing like this a year ago too with the Syncrhony / Cap 1 numbers as I recall, and I saw it even earlier than that in my Lending Tree data (where my defaults turned supiciously high).
The stats are the stats, but rejections are not the same as defaults which is where people aren't paying their bills rather than just floating more debt (like I am, I know I know something could happen but short of act of God it won't this month); actually, with the rise of credit card information being floated online, I suspect there are even more applications and CLI requests being submitted than ever before and potentially not by as qualified borrowers... without the underwriting information it's hard to say, but my file isn't pretty anymore but a CU just handed me a 20k check from a personal loan, so I don't think we're that tight right now.
I'm waiting on other economic data before I think the sky is falling even as my own debts are still racking up unfortunately... but the income flow should be landing starting next Friday, so at least my personal situation will get better and admittedly I'm not in a place where I'm going to default.
Revelate, good way to look at it. No sense in getting all worked up until there is a definitive reason to be.
Do you honestly think that recessions are avoidable through public policy?
Show me any society that hasn't experienced a recession since the dawn of industrialization, or otherwise prove on a macroeconomic basis that recessesions are avoidable as a result of public policy.
Pretty sure no one else can do that either FWIW.
I'm really not sure that using restaurants as a benchmark is a good idea anymore though I dispute your comment that restaurants aren't being frequented all over: there's plenty of crowds where I live in restaurants and not just in fast food either. Ultimately restaurants may not survive, just too expensive and cultural changes trending towards "clean eating" pretty much don't include restaurants. Home Chef and the other do-it-yourself services are trending towards $10/plate, that basically in line with a Big Mac Extra Value Meal now and I don't think anyone is going to try to debate food quality on that one, really those services are at the $15-20 per plate in restaurants now. That's not a long intellectual walk, as soon as I'm out of either of my two jobs, I'm learning how to cook. I may even try to do one night a week now to attempt a sustainable transition.
Holiday spending beat expectations even by like 20% and economists were already expecting new records anyway.
We can debate what the numbers actually mean, but there's absolutely some basis in reality for them. Companies were hiring for white collar jobs in December rather than waiting till January as is traditional. That's a big change, and we're not talking on the low-end of the wage scale either.
I will agree as a society we do a pretty bad job at retraining workers; however, there's got to be some responsibility on the individuals too. Ultimately the expectation of having one career your entire life is flawed, industries come and go and even evolutions of those industries may marginalize your own career. I know mine is coming to an end sometime in the next two decades, and probably a lot sooner than that. So I'm doing some retraining now, while working two jobs and squirrling money away, and if I hit a wall there's always a fallback plan: namely, one year in Texas working any stupid job I can get (there will probably be something, or just live super cheap while studying a bunch of Physics books), claim the 10 year get out of educational jail free card at Texas A&M, and then go do something else with my life.
Admittedly I don't have a lot of things going on in my life so I can pick up and do that, but there is a market solution, just have to be willing to take it.